Friday, November 27, 2009

Temperatures rising - this time it's the H1N1 Pandemic

"....The interviewee asserted that doctors have provided professional assistance to patients, including those provided them with all the necessary drugs, which, however, did not lead to recovery. "It's an infection, which, when it enters the body can not handle: three days and people die," - she said. According to doctors, among the dead - three young people aged 26-27 years, one 11-year-old child and 40-year-old man. The employee also said the city polyclinic UNIAN that the most likely cause of death is some unknown virus. She noticed that, as a rule, for the entire period of the season increased risk of influenza in the region died of 1-2 persons. "Nobody knows anything" - she described the situation with the patients. She also expressed the view that the virus has an effect similar to AIDS, which weakens the immune system. "Something is killing immunity", - said the doctor.The employee called the local hospital and the inadequate diagnosis of the causes of deaths - "poslegrippovye complications", stressing that they may occur after a person was sick for some time. "Influenza can give a complication in the kidney, for example, but it later - after the disease" - she said...."[1]

A new strain of H1N1 influenza virus (swine flu) began in March this year. “Localized outbreaks of influenza-like illness (ILI) were detected in three areas initially in Mexico and soon after in the United States. Following the discovery of the new strain in the United States, its presence was quickly confirmed in multiple nations across several continents.”[2] In April 1,600 suspected cases were reported.

In early October an epidemic of a more lethal strain of H1N1 began in the western part of Ukraine. “The epidemic began in Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk and Lviv … The services of the Ministry of Health delayed reaction to the obvious trends and threats have failed to take necessary preventive measures to reduce threats to life and health. Real assessment of the situation was given only 27-28 October, but the appropriate response measures were not adopted.” [3]

By early November the alarm in the Ukraine had been well and truly raised. In his address to the nation Victor Yushchenko stated: “ People are dying. The epidemic is killing doctors. This is absolutely unprecedented and inconceivable in the XXI century.” He asserted that there were three types of influenza currently spreading throughout the country, two kinds of seasonal flu and the H1N1 strain. This “may lead to the emergence of an even more aggressive new virus”, Yushchenko said [4]. Actual, although not declared martial law is instituted. The Ukrainian Health Minister Wasilij Kniazevicz is reported to have asked the country’s top prosecutor to open criminal proceedings against those who are opposed to the implementation of the mass flu vaccination campaign. President Victor Yushchenko announced the National Security and Defense Council [NSDC - a government body consisting of the president himself, the chairman of parliament, the prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko the head of the Security Service of Ukraine and other high ranking ministers] will become the supreme ruling authority. The NSDC was immediately instructed “to begin preventive and promotional work in areas where there is no epidemic”. Anyone that fails to comply with the NSDC will “result in application to the law enforcement authorities.” [5]

By the 10th November more than a million people in Ukraine had become infected. [6] The pandemic appears to have quickly spread to other parts of Europe. See map.

The mortality and morbidity statistics for this flu pandemic in the Ukraine appear to be significantly understated. Despite a very dramatic rise in the incidence of the disease, the death stats present a picture of a remarkably low and stable death rate. Further, mortality stats for this swine flu epidemic are notably lower in the Ukraine than they are in the US. Why? The Ukraine health facilities are very poor in comparison.

The H1NI virus is reported to be at a tipping point for lethality. Minor changes, such as a single change in one gene segment, can have major effects [7].

There's been no media coverage on this pandemic at all in the Australian media as far as I am aware.

[1] Post subject: Re: situation on Ukraine
PostPosted: Fri Oct 30, 2009 8:45 am

[2] Swine flu outbreak threatens pandemic
27th April 2009.

[3] Read more:
From: November 1. Ukraine UA Situation Update

[4] President's address to the Ukrainian people on the occasion of flu epidemic in Ukraine
Press office of President Victor Yushchenko. 04.11.2009 19:00

[5] Actual, although not Declared MARTIAL LAW In Ukraine
* Posted by Jaro on November 8, 2009 at 3:39am in The Townhall

[6] A million infected in Ukraine flu epidemic: minister
(AFP) – Nov 10, 2009

[7] niman
Post subject: Re: situation on Ukraine
PostPosted: Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:49 pm
pw123 wrote:
So you are bascally implying that this is evidence that H1N1 and it's eight genomes has mutated into a more severe form. Increased virulence / lethality can involve one change on one gene segment. H1N1 is at a tipping point, and minor changes can have major effects.


Brenda Rosser said...

The apostrophe finally went into the heading. Once I noticed it missing the situation became quickly unbearable!

Sheldon said...

H1N1 really let us suffer. So, before hand, let us all have our consultation and test using ELISA kit. There is an ELISA kit manufacturer said that this will be really helpful in the field of medicine.