tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post1957336400393972984..comments2024-03-06T06:34:42.881-05:00Comments on EconoSpeak: On Negotiations In KoreaUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-82588390344552921032018-05-03T18:57:08.984-04:002018-05-03T18:57:08.984-04:00Oh, and the border between the two Koreas has for ...Oh, and the border between the two Koreas has for decades been by far the most heavily armed spot on earth, not to mention that there are about 30,000 US troops as part of that. No, North Korea is important, despite its pathetic economy.rosserjb@jmu.eduhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09300046915843554101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-75981296152435421452018-05-03T17:36:59.534-04:002018-05-03T17:36:59.534-04:00Bruce,
Mostly agree, but while DPRK has a barely ...Bruce,<br /><br />Mostly agree, but while DPRK has a barely there economy, China values it as a flunky ally, Russia values it as an outlet for Vladivostok and some of its far eastern economic activities (not all legal), and both South Korea and Japan fear its pretty formidable military, quite aside from its nukes. Its equipment is outdated and its personnel not too well fed, but in sheer scale of equipment and personnel, it is the top five or six in the world. if it were to invade either of those nations, they would seriously need the US to help them defend themselves, and it would only be successful after massive death and carnage.<br /><br />It is only the US for which your statement holds, and given its apparent possible capability of nuking the US mainland, even for us it is not all that trivial.rosserjb@jmu.eduhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09300046915843554101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-40902312580104890782018-05-03T17:06:29.857-04:002018-05-03T17:06:29.857-04:00I understand why people set up a framework where t...I understand why people set up a framework where they try to assess whether Trump has "persuaded" Xi or Kim or some other foreign leader, but I think this misplaces Trump's political acumen, such as it is. Trump is a guy who watches a lot of cable news and yells at his teevee; he doesn't know much of anything about the world at large, because what does anyone learn from watching teevee? But, he does have a cunning street smart sense of how the media (in the U.S.) itself works, from watching obsessively and participating for many years as a celebrity. This is his point of leverage.<br />.<br />If we want to look for Trump's "intervention", we should look there to domestic (U.S.) popular opinion as amplified by political news media and shaped or manipulated by the media and foreign policy establishment. <br />.<br />I think your analysis regarding Moon is correct, but I would shift the analysis ever so slightly to better understand Trump's role. In a few cases where there have been disclosures of confidential exchanges, we have seen Trump tell foreign leaders what he needs for domestic consumption. Moon, as you write, seems more than willing to give Trump credit, which is smart. What we need to ask is what is Trump able to deliver in return. <br />.<br />I hesitate to give Trump credit for anything intentional really, but it does seem to me that the U.S. foreign policy establishment is pathological. From an American perspective, Korea is not that tough a problem -- it is a small and very poor country surrounded by four other Great Powers, none of whom value it highly as a (potential or continuing) client, not even its compatriot to the South. Korea presents an intractable problem from an American perspective only because the interests bound together in the Foreign Policy Establishment cannot permit any sensible course from being pursued and some ad hoc subset of those interests can manipulate the U.S. media propaganda machine to undo any commitment the official U.S. makes. This is an almost universal circumstance in U.S. foreign policy and bedevils U.S. policy in other regions and arenas.<br />.<br />Trump, by giving earnest leaders in other countries a friendly lever on U.S. foreign policy, may perversely permit others to do a lot of good in the world.<br />.<br />We can hope anyway. And, in the meantime, we might remind ourselves that Trump is not the sum nor source of American problems in mobilizing the political will to do sensible things.Bruce Wilderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09631065564839959376noreply@blogger.com