tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post2558111040035589968..comments2024-03-06T06:34:42.881-05:00Comments on EconoSpeak: Wildly Off Forecasts?Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-87878930664380973942020-07-04T22:25:56.610-04:002020-07-04T22:25:56.610-04:00Unless, of course, the $88B figure represents
what...Unless, of course, the $88B figure represents<br />what the shares are <i>worth</i>, not what they <b>cost</b>.<br />which is almost certainly far less.<br />Fred C. Dobbsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-18610596890721623772020-07-04T10:45:06.156-04:002020-07-04T10:45:06.156-04:00Hmmm. Berkshire Hathaway appears to be
earning le...Hmmm. Berkshire Hathaway appears to be <br />earning less than 1% on their Apple <br />investment, meaning they overpaid <br />for their shares, it would seem.<br /><br />Fred C. Dobbsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-15937897022973338842020-07-03T12:15:27.589-04:002020-07-03T12:15:27.589-04:00(2) Warren Buffett Stocks You Can Buy and Hold for...<a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/07/01/5-warren-buffett-stocks-buy-and-hold-next-decade.aspx" rel="nofollow">(2) Warren Buffett Stocks You Can Buy and Hold for the Next Decade </a><br /><br />@MotleyFool<br /><br />4. Amazon<br />... Amazon has served as a lifeline for its customers during the COVID-19 crisis. The e-commerce giant's services have never been more valuable, and they should only grow in importance as more retail sales shift online in the years ahead.<br /><br />... Countless people shopped on Amazon.com for the first time during the coronavirus crisis, and now that they've experienced the savings and convenience the online retail colossus provides, many will remain loyal customers. ...<br /><br /><b>(Amazon pays no dividends. Neither does Berkshire Hathaway.)</b><br /><br />5. Apple<br />A list of Buffett's favorite stocks is incomplete without mention of his largest position: Apple <br /><br />Berkshire Hathaway owns a staggering $88 billion worth of Apple's stock, making it Buffett's biggest bet by far. ...<br /><br /><b>(Berkshire Hathaway earns about $800M per year in Apple dividends, from about 244M shares owned.)</b>Fred C. Dobbsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-3451075573422487952020-07-03T11:27:31.891-04:002020-07-03T11:27:31.891-04:00Apparently, bond investors disappointed by
very lo...Apparently, bond investors disappointed by<br />very low interest rates are buying equity <br />shares. Both Apple & Microsoft pay decent<br />dividends.Fred C. Dobbsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-80492241396801655062020-07-03T07:46:33.085-04:002020-07-03T07:46:33.085-04:00The only outlier on Fred's Big 4 is Apple. Mi...The only outlier on Fred's Big 4 is Apple. Microsoft belongs in the group, although 2 years ago I did not expect that.<br /><br />The three can lead in pandemic altered markets. ilsmnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-29318281007433648292020-07-02T23:46:07.114-04:002020-07-02T23:46:07.114-04:00It's all about those 'W' recoveries.
...It's all about those 'W' recoveries.<br /><br />The market is incredibly unpredictable, <br />but one can look at it at least in askance.<br /><br />The Big 4 (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon & Google)<br />are now comfortably (?) $Trillion stocks. Some <br />kind of 'flight to quality' by investors, it seems.<br /><br />You must wonder, what is up with that?Fred C. Dobbsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-26055533395855832832020-07-02T20:22:33.562-04:002020-07-02T20:22:33.562-04:00ilsm,
Happy Independence Day back.
Fred,
I stay...ilsm,<br /><br />Happy Independence Day back.<br /><br />Fred,<br /><br />I stay away from trying to forecast the stock market. I do note that NASDAQ has gotten back into all time high range recently.<br /><br />Over on Angry Bear Anne reposted an interesing post by Dean Baker. He notes that the sectors with the most hiring are construction, manufacturing, and health care, the latter somehow not surprising. A bit of a surprise is that the state and local sector actually had net hiring, something I did not expect. That was due to hiring by local governments, while there were net layoffs by state governments. Dean forecasts the situation will turn around for local governments, and I think that is quite likely. He also noted that there was a large number of people withdrawing from the labor force. Growth has been going on on net, but it is very uneven, and clearly likely to slow, although there continue to be reopenings, with my state, Virginia moving to Phase 3 just yesterday. But all that will be coming to an end pretty soon, I suspect.rosserjb@jmu.eduhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09300046915843554101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-66944403590468544142020-07-02T14:44:06.174-04:002020-07-02T14:44:06.174-04:00Dow Jones Eyes 1,000 Point Weekly Gain As Apple, M...<a href="https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-eyes-1000-point-weekly-gain-apple-microsoft-stock-near-highs/" rel="nofollow">Dow Jones Eyes 1,000 Point Weekly Gain As Apple, Microsoft Stock Near Highs</a><br /><br />via @IBDinvestors - July 2<br /><br />Stocks moved off session highs but held solid gains Thursday <br />afternoon as the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 250 points.<br /><br />The Nasdaq rallied 1.2%, the Dow Jones industrials rose 0.9% and the S&P 500 advanced 1% in the stock market today. Small caps tracked by the Russell 2000 added 0.8%. Volume was mixed, higher on the NYSE but lower on the Nasdaq, vs. the same time Wednesday.<br /><br />The Dow surged as much as 470 points earlier, after the Labor Department reported a 4.8 million jump in June payrolls. That topped estimates for a 3 million increase. The unemployment rate fell to 11.1%, vs. a 12.4% forecast and May's 13.3%.<br /><br />Jobless claims last week came in at 1.42 million, slightly higher than an expected 1.4 million. ...Fred C. Dobbsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-85763459905498597982020-07-02T14:32:34.872-04:002020-07-02T14:32:34.872-04:00"Making predictions is really hard, especiall..."Making predictions is really hard, especially about the future".<br /><br />Yogi Berra<br /><br />Happy Independence Day!ilsmnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-9228318427657765482020-07-02T12:51:49.975-04:002020-07-02T12:51:49.975-04:00As of this morning, July 2, more wildly off foreca...As of this morning, July 2, more wildly off forecasts. Employment growth numbers reported for June, growth of 4.8 million jobs. I heard on the radio that is twice what was being forecast by "official experts." I am sure this is slowing down now and possibly reversing with the coronovirus surge and new rounds of layoffs. But for second quarter more generally it looks like the most widely used models are just not doing very well. The situation has just changed too much, and they do not have enough new data to reestimate the faulty parameters in the models.rosserjb@jmu.eduhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09300046915843554101noreply@blogger.com