tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post2732503226281934914..comments2024-03-06T06:34:42.881-05:00Comments on EconoSpeak: Revised Preliminary Updated Prediction!Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-8580484780065555552009-06-04T17:49:28.382-04:002009-06-04T17:49:28.382-04:00Here's another way of putting it, Joe: the pre...Here's another way of putting it, Joe: the preliminary April non-farm employment count was 132,414,000. My May estimate would have been for a 131,639,000 to 131,579,000 final May count. If the April number gets revised downward to something like 132,300,000, the May final may well be "about 670" (or even 661).<br /><br />Not to put too fine a point on it, my basic observation remains that the April number was not the "improvement" or breathing spell that it was made out to be. The appearance of improvement was a statistical artifact. <br /><br />Based on the ADP numbers and the way they're being reported, May doesn't look any better than April while April is looking worse than it did a month ago. On the other hand, I'm not saying that April or May are any <i>worse</i> than February and March, just more of the same -- that is to say, really, really bad.Sandwichmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11159060882083015637noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-56796697640371831332009-06-04T15:27:46.713-04:002009-06-04T15:27:46.713-04:00Ah ha! So now we have to wait until August to nail...Ah ha! So now we have to wait until August to nail you. If you weren't so contrary, I'd say you're "hedge' ready for CNBC. I'd say you're going to overshoot the mark by about 100k. that is revised (semi) final for May per the July empsit report will be about 670.<br /><br />Joe K.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com