tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post4413618434360407682..comments2024-03-06T06:34:42.881-05:00Comments on EconoSpeak: Blowing In The Wind: Is Global Warming Over?Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-34753691264815847142013-05-09T04:23:33.194-04:002013-05-09T04:23:33.194-04:00Thanks for sharing the informative blog and it is ...Thanks for sharing the informative blog and it is very informative post.<br /><br /><a href="http://businessfinancecorporation.com/" rel="nofollow">business finance corporation</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-32261576456255532592013-05-06T00:20:41.505-04:002013-05-06T00:20:41.505-04:00Unknown,
Check out my post before the last one, w...Unknown,<br /><br />Check out my post before the last one, which is fully supported by the link I have provided in the main post to detailed temperature series from NASA. It is only after 1944 that cooling appears, and it pretty much ends with 1976, after which there is never a year that is cooler than the 1950-80 norm. One cannot argue that the cooling lasted into the early 1980s.<br /><br />However, your main point is well taken indeed. There have been periods of plateaued or even cooling since 1890, even as CO2 emissions and ambient levels have risen. We do not have data from those earlier episodes to know if what was going on was warming deep in the oceans that then reappeared at the surface as is likely to happen in the future.rosserjb@jmu.eduhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09300046915843554101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-5602778881199699782013-05-06T00:00:25.065-04:002013-05-06T00:00:25.065-04:00There have been two periods since the beginning of...There have been two periods since the beginning of the industrial age when temperatures have dropped or plateaued for more than a decade while CO2 levels continued to rise: the late 1890s to the mid 1920s, and the early 1940s through the early 1980s. In both cases the correlation between CO2 levels and global temperatures eventually held firm. Whatever the causes of short-term discrepancies in this correlation, this history of global warming -- glossed over by those who tout the current plateauing as disproving theories of climate change -- makes a mockery of the denialists' claims.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13259146811206690824noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-54164194907780573452013-05-05T23:47:28.868-04:002013-05-05T23:47:28.868-04:00Oooops. Url for temp data off in last message, wi...Oooops. Url for temp data off in last message, with an _ between GLB and Ts rather than the . that should be there. See the link I have put in the main message at the end as addendum. That seems to work. Sorry.rosserjb@jmu.eduhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09300046915843554101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-13052105681267800692013-05-05T23:40:11.647-04:002013-05-05T23:40:11.647-04:00For those who want to see the global temperature i...For those who want to see the global temperature in detail by month and half year since 1880, see http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB_Ts+dSST.txt . During 1937 through 1944 temps were above the 1950-1980 base, with 44 a peak. The decline hit a bottom in 1965 and 1966, although the last year noticeably below the base, almost as low as them was 1976. Four years since 1998 have been higher than it: 2002, 2005, 2007, and 2010, the highest of them all since 1880, with the last two and into this year lower and not above 98.<br /><br />It is true that particulates do not stay in the atmosphere all that long. This was the main reason that the near split in the lit in 1971 between the warmers and the coolers tilted sharply to the warmers a few years later as this was realized, particularly in comparison to the longevity of CO2 ambience in the atmosphere, with the late Stephen Schneider the poster boy for the shift in attitude, from an "it's up in the air which will dominate" in a 1971 paper to "warming will dominate" in a 1975 one, even prior to the clear appearance of the warming trend in the data.<br /><br />Some of the models do attempt to model regional sources and effects, hence the accurate forecasts that the Arctic would warm more than other parts of the world. <br /><br />I am unaware of any serious models that say that ice ages result from warming rather than cooling. What is curious from the historical record as pieced together from ice cap cores is that the changes in temperature both going into and out of ice ages appear to have been quite short in geological terms, as short as 100 years, which could be due to exogenous shocks, or to reflect the nonlinear positive feedbacks many think are present in the system.rosserjb@jmu.eduhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09300046915843554101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-8205317270692137512013-05-05T21:51:46.841-04:002013-05-05T21:51:46.841-04:00While the possibility of a reversal to an ice age ...While the possibility of a reversal to an ice age regime is not taken too seriously, I discuss the nature of ice ages and the likelihood of the next one at:<br /><br />http://anamecon.blogspot.com/2011/09/ice-age-in-our-future.html<br /><br />The important thing is that ice ages are <i>not</i> the result of global <i>cooling.</i> Ice ages are the result of global warming, well, global heat retention, and <i>cause</i> cooling.<br /><br />So watch your latitude!greghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08201906679062960215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-17419666833378735282013-05-05T16:20:03.803-04:002013-05-05T16:20:03.803-04:00To follow up on Cameron's point, which seems o...To follow up on Cameron's point, which seems obvious given the geoengineering solution of pumping sulfur oxides et al in the upper atmosphere to cause global cooling, do the climate models incorporate the cooling/rain effects of sulfur et al pollutants which have gone up and down rather drastically over the past century.<br /><br />Are the models incorporating pollutants as point sources with regional impact, or point sources with global impact, or global parameters?mulphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14149487211960071193noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-47025541728666422272013-05-05T08:44:23.293-04:002013-05-05T08:44:23.293-04:00My degrees are in engineering, not climate science...My degrees are in engineering, not climate science or meteorology, so you can take my conjecture for what it's worth. In the late 1960's and 1970's, there was a small episode of "global cooling". Not really cooling either, because global mean temperatures had continued to rise, but a serious slowdown in increases.<br /><br />It was pretty easy to figure out why--dirty fuel oil and even dirtier coal combustion were pumping out massive amounts of sulfur dioxide and black carbon into the air. Virtually all of it was coming from North America and Europe. Needless to say we cleaned up our act with cheap, creative technology.<br /><br />Once the emissions were brought down, warming began again in earnest. There was a reprieve in the early/mid nineties thanks to Mt Pinatubo, but that was it.<br /><br />Since 2000, sulfur dioxide and particulate emissions from Dhina and international shipping China have exploded. Global emissions are nearly back to the previous peak in 1975. Things have gotten to the point in terms of health and local environment in China that change is coming.<br /><br />All the ocean dynamics and all that are interesting math, but I think the real cause is the same one as before. Since the atmospheric lifetime of sulfur dioxide and particulates is about a week, and the lifetime of CO2 is about 100 years, once emissions scrubbing becomes standard in China and on boats, I'm 95% certain we will return to trend temperature change.<br /><br />Global Sulfur emissions (peer reviewed):<br /><br />http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs/Climate%20change/Data%20sources/Stern_Chemosphere_2005.pdfCameron Hoppehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17817707262059114619noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-76748316881634122702013-05-05T02:00:29.211-04:002013-05-05T02:00:29.211-04:00John,
I do not think anybody is questioning the d...John,<br /><br />I do not think anybody is questioning the data on CO2 concentrations. The issue is how the climate is responding to the clear increases in those. I am putting the link to the Economist article into the main text and note that it briefly mentions this new finding about the oceans heating up more than expected at below 700 meters depth.<br /><br />Peter,<br /><br />The Economist article shows that the five-year rolling average increase has slowed down since 2000 and is now hitting the lower end of what has been projected to be happening based on the CO2 emissions. Ultimately all of this is empirical: what is happening to CO2 emissions and how is temperature changing? As of right now it looks like it is not rising as rapidly as expected in the atmosphere or upper oceans, but more than expected below 700 meters depth in the oceans.rosserjb@jmu.eduhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09300046915843554101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-45315098986777572822013-05-05T00:43:19.827-04:002013-05-05T00:43:19.827-04:00Climate change is one of those cases, Barkley, whe...Climate change is one of those cases, Barkley, when I think the burden of empirical evidence is on those who think that warming (in some meaningful sense) <i>isn't</i> taking place. The reason is that the basic physics and chemistry all point to the likelihood that it should be. It's as if you showed me a green plant and said, I don't think it is employing photosynthesis. Maybe not, but you'd have to demonstrate it. The default assumption is that it obeys the general laws that green plants obey.Peter Dormanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00093399591393648071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-83524227705352474492013-05-04T21:39:50.304-04:002013-05-04T21:39:50.304-04:00In the meantime, the most recent report is that CO...In the meantime, the most recent report is that CO^2 concentrations are approaching 400 ppm much sooner than previously expected.john c. halaszhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17176419625607679150noreply@blogger.com