tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post7094693562232047307..comments2024-03-06T06:34:42.881-05:00Comments on EconoSpeak: Climate Science: Prepare for Increasing UncertaintyUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-28582005789864958462010-10-13T17:20:49.592-04:002010-10-13T17:20:49.592-04:00It is a symptom of the political climate, not the ...It is a symptom of the political climate, not the physical climate, that anyone can claim (presumably with a straight face) that "[climate] models have yet to make a single confirmed prediction." The best-developed climate models have been proven right again and again in predicting the aspects of climate we care most about: large-scale temperature trends, geographic distribution of warming, sea surface temperatures and precipitation patterns. The smaller scale and more chaotic aspects of climate, such as clouds and wind patterns, need finer-grained methods -- but these are already pretty good, and getting better all the time. As noted above, phenomena such as disappearing Arctic sea ice have been predicted by climate models and serve as clear indicators of a warming planet.<br /><br><br />The problem is not acknowledgment of uncertainty; that is an essential part of honest science. Rather, the problem is the dishonest use of uncertainty, whether out of ideology or self-interest, to foster political paralysis.jrehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09970581038792305659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-79581926246237763902010-10-11T23:16:20.749-04:002010-10-11T23:16:20.749-04:00The Arctic permafrost is melting. The Northwest P...The Arctic permafrost is melting. The Northwest Passage now exists, etc. etc. Sigh. It's the signal to noise ratio at a global level. Never mind. Anyway, to respond to Prof. Dornan's post, the predominant policy response is "no regrets", which stipulates precautionary measures to address the uncertainty that we have seen. The good thing is that these "no regrets" actions are mostly good investments anyway in a non-fossil fuel, environmentally sustainable future.Jimbohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13891331049535299222noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-50920916791828328312010-10-10T11:11:01.117-04:002010-10-10T11:11:01.117-04:00What is still missing from this discussion is the ...What is still missing from this discussion is the basic question - why should we believe <i>any</i> of their predictions? Generally in science, what they have constructed is simply an hypothesis. Their models have yet to make a single confirmed prediction. We know that global temperature is higher now than since the start of the 20th century ; what we don't know is what it will be in the future. I am now seeing predictions that we will experience colder temperatures in some part of the world than we have seen in 1000 years. Why are those predictions less compelling that the ones the IPCC is making?<br /><br />Yes, if temperatures rise many degrees we could see serious problems. But we have no real reason to believe that they will.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-1337665658955145492010-10-07T18:42:49.050-04:002010-10-07T18:42:49.050-04:00Weitzman's work on the serious probabiity of e...Weitzman's work on the serious probabiity of extreme outcomes is excellent on all this. He has been widely mentioned for this year's Nobel, and would be a good pick.rosserjb@jmu.eduhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09300046915843554101noreply@blogger.com