tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post8251402191816890056..comments2024-03-06T06:34:42.881-05:00Comments on EconoSpeak: The Big Issues For 2013Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-15621285406161534592013-01-12T22:03:58.100-05:002013-01-12T22:03:58.100-05:00National fiscal policy feeds into exchange rates a...National fiscal policy feeds into exchange rates and then into domestic interest rates.Myrtle Blackwoodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07427043367624101075noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-60980323665418169902013-01-03T11:20:40.139-05:002013-01-03T11:20:40.139-05:00Brenda,
I do not think we are going to crash hard...Brenda,<br /><br />I do not think we are going to crash hard into any particular resource constraint this year, although it could happen. I view the probability as low.<br /><br />Also, Fed monetary policy has nothing to do with the debt ceiling, which is a strictly fiscal policy issue. It is true that the Fed is involved with the carrying out of fiscal policy, but that is still not related to the debt ceiling. Where the Fed might play a role, although passive, would be if Obama opts for the trillion dollar coin escape. That involves Treasury minting the coin (or coins) and depositing them at the Fed, with them then being used to finance the Fed's buying of fresh Treasury borrowings.rosserjb@jmu.eduhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09300046915843554101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-38800755454761633882013-01-02T21:25:35.198-05:002013-01-02T21:25:35.198-05:00Having said all that I acknowledge the need for th...Having said all that I acknowledge the need for the US Government to engage in fiscal strategies that reflect its domestic and global responsibilities.<br /><br />What happened to "Helicopter Ben's" strategy. Print, print, print and print more US dollars? Which is another way of saying "declare the US debt ceiling unconstitutional". <br /><br />How would the central banks of the world protect a flow on effect to world prices through this multiplication of currency? Raise wages and pensions to (genuinely) keep up with inflation?<br /><br />What then of the effects of genuine resource constraints?Myrtle Blackwoodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07427043367624101075noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-47156426700074771762013-01-02T18:49:32.084-05:002013-01-02T18:49:32.084-05:00My prediction for 2013 (the short term) is that ge...My prediction for 2013 (the short term) is that general output in the world economy will limited by the amount of input of the needed resource in least supply. [I'm being sarcastic. However I am also very concerned about this year ahead.]<br /><br />Limited output in 2013 may be due to the loss of cheap oil and cheap energy: <br />http://boilingspot.blogspot.com/2012/01/time-to-worry-world-oil-production.html<br /><br />Limited output from a loss of cheap food. <br />A new virulent strain of wheat fungus has wiped out much of the wheat crop in Africa. This problem began in 2009. Most wheat strains around the world are susceptible to this disease and fungicides to treat it are both financially unaffordable and toxic to the environment.<br /><br />The limiting factor in 2013 could be land (expensive oil means 'low input' agriculture):<br />"...Based on an assessment of the potential production from available land, and projected population growth in 117 countries in the developing world, FAO concluded [in 1982] that by the year 2000, 64 countries (55 percent) would not be able to support their populations from land resources alone using production systems based on low inputs (FAO, 1982)..."<br />http://www.fao.org/docrep/004/x3810e/x3810e04.htm<br /><br /> Or water:<br />"...The United Nations estimates that Sub-Saharan Africa alone loses 40 billion hours per year collecting water; that's the same as a whole year's worth of labor by the entire workforce in France!"<br />http://thewaterproject.org/water_stats.asp<br /><br />Finance needs to be directed at only that part of the real economy that truly sustains people and the planet. Wouldn't such action comprise the real meaning of 'social security'?<br /><br /><br />Myrtle Blackwoodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07427043367624101075noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-81705912710277153942013-01-02T15:19:26.331-05:002013-01-02T15:19:26.331-05:00Brenda,
Many of these are bigger and deeper issue...Brenda,<br /><br />Many of these are bigger and deeper issues, but I do not see anhy of them exploding in the coming year. Focus of the post was on much nearer term, what is most likely to go bad big time during the coming year. <br /><br />Have not heard of the dollar-China deal. All the best.rosserjb@jmu.eduhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09300046915843554101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-46958460282336930802013-01-02T06:45:46.110-05:002013-01-02T06:45:46.110-05:00"I would say that a possible collapse of prop..."I would say that a possible collapse of property values in China leading to a much more serious slowdown of the Chinese economy is probably the second (and possibly first) most serious threat to the global economy after the possibility of a screwup regarding the US debt ceiling..."<br /><br />Not climate changes, world peak oil, GFC, global food production crisis, Barkley?<br /><br />It's a new era of diminishing returns. China's huge industrial economy is as sustainable as the US continuing to simply print money to cover one third of its Federal Government expenditure.<br /><br />[By the by, Dimitry Orlov says that thanks to a recent deal with US elites, China can now also print US dollars.]Myrtle Blackwoodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07427043367624101075noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-6332540055132972472013-01-02T05:34:08.988-05:002013-01-02T05:34:08.988-05:00Thanks, sameers. Fixed now.Thanks, sameers. Fixed now.rosserjb@jmu.eduhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09300046915843554101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-29206889174884068012013-01-02T02:53:27.687-05:002013-01-02T02:53:27.687-05:00There're typos in the link - the right link is...There're typos in the link - the right link is http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2012/12/stories-to-watch-for-in-2013.htmlsameershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15847477453003509183noreply@blogger.com