tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post886358314835960723..comments2024-03-06T06:34:42.881-05:00Comments on EconoSpeak: Historical Butterflies: Richard Cohen VersionUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-50783979428993292972014-08-31T22:17:54.863-04:002014-08-31T22:17:54.863-04:00A better analogy than a butterfly flapping its win...A better analogy than a butterfly flapping its wings would be a spark landing in a barrel of gunpowder. Europe before 1918 was geared for war, and even if the assassination in Sarajevo didn't trigger it, something else would have. There were numerous prior incidents when the powers almost went to war before backing down: Fashoda Incident, the First Moroccan Crisis, the Second Moroccan Crisis, the Bosnian Crisis, the two Balkan wars. World War I would've broken out sooner or later.<br /><br />The same argument can be applied to the Arab Spring. One guy martyring himself would've been irrelevant if there already wasn't a great divide between the peoples of Middle East and their government. A good historical analogue would be the revolutions of 1848. This is just another incident in the same historical process. The increasing middle class is working to gain a share of political power from the upper class. As long as economic progress is creating more middle class, this pressure will remain. And since the Arab Spring mostly failed, that means more political disturbances in the future.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01874452998675783899noreply@blogger.com