tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post2634413520060230932..comments2024-03-06T06:34:42.881-05:00Comments on EconoSpeak: Is the Oil Price Scare From The Strait Of Hormuz Over?Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-41725791109784335622012-01-24T00:57:11.261-05:002012-01-24T00:57:11.261-05:00I was surprised when I read this, but from an earl...I was surprised when I read this, but from an earlier Ignatius article he cited some anonymous US military people on the point. Apparently back around 2002 they did a war games on this matter and found that the Iranians could do it in about ten minutes if they wanted to. They have lots of small fast boats with lots of missiles that can really hamstring an aircraft carrier. Although the straits are about 35 miles wide, the portion deep enough for oil tankers to pass through are about four miles, two separate portions of two miles each, one used for going in and one used for going out. The Iranians could make a real mess of things quickly, although the US would exact a harsh revenge. But it could take quite awhile to reopen them.<br /><br />So, yes, the threat was real, if never all that credible, more for the fact that the Straits are also the main route for their own oil exports to exit to their markets.Barkley Rosserhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13114257724762074636noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-60847590763967238722012-01-24T00:31:43.030-05:002012-01-24T00:31:43.030-05:00I despise the current neocon war mongering over Ir...I despise the current neocon war mongering over Iranian nuclear plans. But permit me to criticize a few misconceptions in this post: <br /><br /><i>Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, which it is capable of doing...</i><br /><br />By what means do you suppose Iran to be capable of closing the straights?<br /><br /><i> [I]t does look as if Iran has backed off for whatever reasons.</i><br /><br />Iran has 'backed off' because they have no practical means of implementing their threat.<br /><br /><i>David Ignatius claims in WaPo that this was due to Obama putting pressure on Iran through back channels.</i><br /><br />You do not need back channels when you can simply order a carrier task force through the straights. If Iran has a credible means of opposing such power, it is a well-kept secret indeed.<br /><br />I make these points in opposition to what I consider a mistaken rhetorical strategy among opponents of further military misadventures in the Middle East. <br /><br />It is tempting, in the wake of the Iraq debacle, to stress exclusively the limitations of U.S. military power. <br /><br />Those limitations are very real--our ground forces are definitely not capable of turning large, ethnically and religiously fragmented Middle Eastern countries into Jeffersonian democracies in short order (if ever).<br /><br />But our forces are fully capable of achieving far more modest goals, such as keeping the straights of Hormuz open to international shipping. <br /><br />This fact is stabilizing. It means that we have nothing to fear from Iranian bluster about closing the straights.<br /><br />Iranian military capabilities are, from the U.S. perspective, as yet quite modest. We should take care not to exaggerate them.Amileojhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00697235351749561279noreply@blogger.com