tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post2638754474936355792..comments2024-03-06T06:34:42.881-05:00Comments on EconoSpeak: US Policy On Iran After The Midterm ElectionsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-17469880320890670262018-11-26T21:02:50.644-05:002018-11-26T21:02:50.644-05:00I find I'm skeptical of the reports of "a...I find I'm skeptical of the reports of "attempted assassinations" of Iran critics in the EU. Just as I am hyper-skeptical of the Skripal stories from the UK. It makes no sense for Iran or Russia to do what they are accused of, while we know from history that often the nation making the accusation actually was the culprit, e.g. the CIA campaign to overthrow Mossadegh. Hope this does not qualify as a gaslight comment. Procopiushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17554355440319405363noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-58898699854437347862018-11-13T17:32:53.076-05:002018-11-13T17:32:53.076-05:00My comment about a "different path" rela...My comment about a "different path" relates to the whole post-1979 trajectory. The Shah tried to build a post-oil Iran (in a half-assed kind of way). The Iraq war, UN sanctions, US enmity have pushed Iran to take this seriously, and they have built functioning medium-sized industrial and transport sectors. Still dependent on oil income, but less so, and not nearly so structured around that cash flow.<br /><br />Contrast Australia, where resource income has tended to displace industry.Peter Thttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13289172253358199028noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-54242311649190558982018-11-12T15:42:13.621-05:002018-11-12T15:42:13.621-05:00PT,
I think that whatever comes out of Trump'...PT,<br /><br />I think that whatever comes out of Trump's efforts, apparently fairly successful in the short run, will not last all that long for one reason or another. Either a successor will undo them or Iran and the nations that oppose the sanctions (the vast majority) will indeed develop ways to get around them, as they seem to be working to do. So talking about Trump putting Iran on a "different path" is pretty premature. For better or worse, nations with lots of oil tend to be pretty stuck on mostly exporting it for well-known reasons (see Dutch disease), not to mention that Trump is putting sanctions on sectors besides oil as well, so not exactly helping them to move off oil. Heck, MbS in KSA's Vision 2030 is to get it off oil at least somewhat, and I say to that one, fat chance.<br /><br />Heck, back in the early 1980s my wife was on the Soviet long-run planning group looking at 25 time horizon. They were trying to figure out how to get the Soviet economy off depending on oil exports. Guess what? The Russian economy continues to be heavily dependent on oil exports, and they have more alternatives than do the Iranians.Barkley Rosserhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17456034324768715935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-52737521078624746062018-11-11T03:19:36.500-05:002018-11-11T03:19:36.500-05:00I'm not saying sanctions don't hurt. Just ...I'm not saying sanctions don't hurt. Just that they put a country which would otherwise have a natural resource political economy, with the distortions that entails (small middle class, low level of internal development, small industrial sector, low level of political mobilisation) on a different path. Iran is in a position analogous to Britain 1688-1815, a country whose elites see an existential threat and are prepared to sacrifice a great deal to maintain internal support and external allies.<br /><br />Also, Iran has played a clever diplomatic and military hand. It's defence spending is low, it spends comparatively little on aid to allies such as Syria, it has solid ties with most neighbours and has managed to get Russia, China and the EU on side. It's an impressive achievement. Peter Thttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13289172253358199028noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-26333356396288777602018-11-09T16:42:31.457-05:002018-11-09T16:42:31.457-05:00This should probably be an addendum, but I am putt...This should probably be an addendum, but I am putting it as a comment. In today's WaPo I read that SecState Pompeo is considering designatingg the Houthis in Yemen a terrorist group, mostly to be able to get at their foreign supporters and suppliers. This looks like a spit in the face to the bipartisan group in Congress that wants to cut aid to the Saudis for their awful war in Yemen, which seems to be ramping up more. Needless to say, this is more pro-Saudi and anti-Iran action by the Trump administration, even as Iran's aid and support of the Houthis has long been exaggerated by both the Saudis and the Trump administration.Barkley Rosserhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17456034324768715935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-13395568472084642902018-11-09T01:53:15.950-05:002018-11-09T01:53:15.950-05:00Apparently the new port where the rail line to Afg...Apparently the new port where the rail line to Afghanistan comes out of is exampt from the Trump sanctions. Some of those other sectors you mention, such as shipping, are subject to the sanctions.rosserjb@jmu.eduhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09300046915843554101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-27663816854392032892018-11-09T01:13:49.955-05:002018-11-09T01:13:49.955-05:00Unless they are really tight, sanctions could actu...Unless they are really tight, sanctions could actually help the Iranian economy. A resource economy is a fragile thing, prone to booms and busts and to kleptocracy. Keeping oil revenue tight and imports low encourages diversification and builds self-reliance. Iran is an exporter of steel products, makes cars and trucks and is now a mid-sized industrial nation. It operates its own tanker fleet. It has also put considerable resources into its rail net, taking advantage of its positions as a crossroads - rail connections to Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, new line to Azerbaijan, new line planned to Turkey, new port at Char Bahar to service Afghanistan and Central Asia...Peter Thttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13289172253358199028noreply@blogger.com