tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post3359845647593078349..comments2024-03-06T06:34:42.881-05:00Comments on EconoSpeak: Two Generations of Trade Deficits: A Wee Complaint with Jared BernsteinUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-3121771051322549582016-12-02T09:14:17.288-05:002016-12-02T09:14:17.288-05:00Reason
Increased foreign demand for dollar denomi...Reason<br /><br />Increased foreign demand for dollar denominated paper does hold up uncle SAMs imperial forex rate <br /><br />But as dean strenuously points out <br />This too can be countered by fed and treasury policy <br />Allowing the dynamics of various interconnected paper markets to dictate <br />An adverse course of forex is either delinquency negligence or narrow interests at work <br />In this case those narrow interests were those of Mistress Wall Street and her many privateering MNC clients <br /><br />The domestic industrial job class played shock absorber <br />Owen Painehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13675803406994867138noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-29722512824214713732016-12-02T09:07:15.080-05:002016-12-02T09:07:15.080-05:00The school masterly evocation of a model
In pgl...The school masterly evocation of a model<br />In pgl's comment <br /><br />Only adds irony to the garble <br /><br />Here the "model less mind" cries use a model <br />When reason himself blows hot wind <br />Thru the vacuities in pgl's post <br /><br />The tea pot in polite tempest remains a back parlor gurgle <br /><br />I suggest more job work <br />At least Get paid for this fragmentary garble <br />That or retire to the Everglades and thrash about in a real not a virtual swamp<br />U might delight the Alligators and escaped pythons enough<br />To devour your foot or squeeze your throat Owen Painehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13675803406994867138noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-76637033270921423722016-12-02T09:00:38.068-05:002016-12-02T09:00:38.068-05:00Btw
The term national savings rate is a Boy Scout...Btw<br /><br />The term national savings rate is a Boy Scout misnomer <br />I suggest u Reserve that Calvinist merit term <br />for Dicken's Scrooge and your maiden aunt <br /><br />Of course if trump gives the wealthy and they high of income a big tax break<br />We' ll have to listen to more fiscal budget buster clap trap from Clinton faction macro hacks Owen Painehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13675803406994867138noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-3449303741880346872016-12-02T08:54:24.815-05:002016-12-02T08:54:24.815-05:00What a garble
Are we to accept as fact
The fed un...What a garble<br /><br />Are we to accept as fact<br />The fed under Greenspan and treasury under Rubin/Ziffle<br /> couldn't engineer a falling dollar path thru the boom of Clinton term 2 ?<br /><br />There are more variables here and possible degrees of freedom of policy action<br />Then pgl appears to comprehend <br /><br />He might consider using a model or two <br /><br />These macro historic trajectories are complexly motivated <br /><br />Party partisan sycophancy obscures the options <br /><br />I note banging on Reagan's deficit fails to comprehend carter appointed Volckers boston crab hold on credit flows <br />And the consequent nominal interest surges Owen Painehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13675803406994867138noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-49408886583797561212016-12-01T11:37:26.977-05:002016-12-01T11:37:26.977-05:00So failing international co-ordination (and with T...So failing international co-ordination (and with Trump in charge there looks to me no chance of that), I think your best bet is to aim for considerably higher inflation and just print money. Eventually the neo-mercantilists will decide they have enough dollars, and your domestic monetary policy will get some grip on the road again. (Oh one thing you could do as well is to move to adjustable rate mortgages - they are one of Australia's little secrets. That wasn't so much planning as a happy accident, but it converts monetary policy into something that works more like fiscal policy. Cut interest rates and it flows immediately into disposable income.)reasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06594313655855683716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-62407357603193674782016-12-01T11:33:21.548-05:002016-12-01T11:33:21.548-05:00P.S. I agree with you that Dean's view that ja...P.S. I agree with you that Dean's view that jawboning had much to do with the appreciation of the dollar unlikely. But I think the deficit will remain a problem without international co-ordination. And the deficit means wealth flowing out of the country - you are selling the farm in order to consume and at some stage that won't be sustainable anymore.reasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06594313655855683716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-80059414751625847302016-12-01T11:23:41.861-05:002016-12-01T11:23:41.861-05:00"I am not saying it is all foreign events v. ..."I am not saying it is all foreign events v. domestic events." <br />??? It's me that saying it is mostly foreign events and less domestic events.<br /><br />"current account = national savings - investment"<br /><br />Agreed, but what is not at all clear is what is the dependent variable here.<br /><br />" It also considers how various events impacts floating exchange rates."<br /><br />Yes but I thought that theory on this had a very poor track record. All I know is that the US currency seems to always move in the wrong direction (going up when the deficit gets worse instead of going down - whereas for instance with a country such as New Zealand the reverse is true).<br /><br />reasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06594313655855683716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-12807805789523176172016-12-01T10:03:23.532-05:002016-12-01T10:03:23.532-05:00Reason - I think you are misreading this even wors...Reason - I think you are misreading this even worse than Dean and Jared are. I am not saying it is all foreign events v. domestic events. All I - and most international economists (eg Brad Setser) - am saying is that there is a model of how this works. The model starts with the basic premise that the current account = national savings - investment. It also considers how various events impacts floating exchange rates. Dean and Jared tend to ignore these matters. And alas you are too.ProGrowthLiberalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17138489390594441753noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-13148560524661141092016-12-01T09:22:24.769-05:002016-12-01T09:22:24.769-05:00US based commentators really have a tendency to in...US based commentators really have a tendency to interpret everything in domestic terms (something that someone in say NZ or Belgium would never even think of doing). Sure you are a big economy, but you still aren't the only economy in the world.reasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06594313655855683716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-11524859360761427772016-12-01T09:21:06.646-05:002016-12-01T09:21:06.646-05:00Curious, I was also born in 1955.
But re this dis...Curious, I was also born in 1955.<br /><br />But re this discussion. I think you are both wrong here. Domestic policies probably have relatively little to do with it. As I saw very well discussed by Dean recently, it has much more to do with the Asian crisis, the IMF response and the response of the newly developing Asian economies with their massive savings rates and export driven growth. What happened post the break down of Bretton Woods was something similar - basically foreigners shifting their reserves into dollars.reasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06594313655855683716noreply@blogger.com