tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post7276525219107538833..comments2024-03-06T06:34:42.881-05:00Comments on EconoSpeak: The Biggest Nonlinearity in the Short Run Cost of Mitigating Climate ChangeUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-28554276937772335632014-10-21T11:21:24.814-04:002014-10-21T11:21:24.814-04:00http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-296905...http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-29690507john c. halaszhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17176419625607679150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-36897371165732013432014-10-20T20:01:39.068-04:002014-10-20T20:01:39.068-04:00Shutting down a unit of capital, like an airplane,...Shutting down a unit of capital, like an airplane, right?<br /><br />Ok, that can happen for lots of reasons, right?<br /><br />If enough people stop flying *for any reason*, airlines eventually retire some of their fleet early, right?<br /><br />On the same page?<br /><br />Ok. Who cares *why* capital gets retired early? And why is there a distinction between reasons where some reasons require a policy response where as other reasons are simply "the market at work"?<br /><br />I was making two points:<br />Who cares? The owners of capital. In other words, not the democratic majority. <br /><br />Why make a distinction? Free market dogma. <br /><br />Why does this dogma persist? Peter Dornan could tell us if he could perceive that it's dogma. But he can't. Thornton Hallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11402495641975262697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-89009195345602684742014-10-20T14:06:36.662-04:002014-10-20T14:06:36.662-04:00Brother, can you pair a dime?Brother, can you pair a dime?john c. halaszhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17176419625607679150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-90971977190181484282014-10-19T17:41:10.198-04:002014-10-19T17:41:10.198-04:00Barkley, shutting down a unit of capital is a loca...Barkley, shutting down a unit of capital is a local nonlinearity. It becomes global if the tipping points for individual units are clustered. It's like death. This is a nonlinear event for a single person (so to speak) but not for society -- unless the factors affecting mortality have a common tipping point for a sufficiently large portion of the population (like viral exposure in an epidemic).<br /><br />The analogy to post-1989 E. Europe is useful here. I know you've written on this, but what I've seen of your work was concerned with systemic instability. I have in mind something much simpler: you couldn't cover your costs if you continued to produce goods that were suddenly unmarketable. There is a minimum price below which you won't even try to sell a Skoda. If the price falls below this you shut down. That's a local nonlinearity. But it's happening simultaneously in a large number of enterprises, so it becomes a nonlinearity for the economy overall.Peter Dormanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00093399591393648071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-50975521170398447452014-10-19T17:24:16.418-04:002014-10-19T17:24:16.418-04:00Well, John C. Halaz, we are using different paradi...Well, John C. Halaz, we are using different paradigms. Thornton Hallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11402495641975262697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-10825683497077951272014-10-19T14:35:10.651-04:002014-10-19T14:35:10.651-04:00Being picky, I am not sure I see specific nonlinea...Being picky, I am not sure I see specific nonlinearities associated with capital depreciation induced by environmentally induced changes in relative prices. I think the bigger nonlinearities in the system remain those coming specifically from the ecological and environmental sides themselves.rosserjb@jmu.eduhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09300046915843554101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-4277875947599452592014-10-19T14:28:22.925-04:002014-10-19T14:28:22.925-04:00As usual, I have no idea what Thornton Hall is try...As usual, I have no idea what Thornton Hall is trying to say. All economists are bad and fraudulent, therefore there is no need to think about and try and understand economic matters?<br /><br />IANAE but I've made the same points as Peter Dorman. But I'd like to call and raise him. Not only will capital stocks and infrastructure on both the energy producing and the energy consuming or using ends need to be written down (eventually to zero) faster than "normal" rates of depreciation, but 1) we need to make sure, as much as possible, that our remaining use of old energy and resources goes to building out a renewable, sustainable alternative system, within the available "budget", both in GHG and energy cliff terms, (since peak oil and gas in conventional terms has arrived), and 2) at the same time as a vast amount of investment must be written down, a vast amount of new investment in alternatives must be generated. I don't see how that would be possible without a good deal of public investment and indicative public planning, that is, without mobilizing the fiscal, regulatory and coordinating capacities of the state.john c. halaszhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17176419625607679150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-4939836348251823092014-10-18T23:33:17.351-04:002014-10-18T23:33:17.351-04:00Other things that cause airlines to "prematur...Other things that cause airlines to "prematurely" retire airplanes:<br /><br />-9/11<br />-Reaction to 9/11<br />-TSA Screening procedures<br />-Car fuel efficiency gains out pacing airplane gains. <br />-video conferencing<br />-New National Parks a short drive from population centers. <br /><br />Why is climate change the one that allows Boeing to extract policy concessions from society?Thornton Hallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11402495641975262697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4900303239154048192.post-70919054564384511622014-10-18T23:12:34.396-04:002014-10-18T23:12:34.396-04:00So this is exactly like an expensive cancer drug. ...So this is exactly like an expensive cancer drug. Not much sense in figuring out how taking it now will affect my life in 50 years time. <br /><br />But what, exactly, would I do with the knowledge that it will cost my insurance company $12,000 a month? I will take the drug. What if it bankrupts my insurance company? I will take the drug. What if that means insurance executives buy their mistresses condos in Brooklyn instead of Manhattan? In that case, I take the drug. <br /><br />What are these policy changes? Every business venture is a gamble. Climate change is like a war, some companies will get rich and others will go bankrupt. Do we really need to have a conversation about job training for displaced refinery operators? Did we talk about job training for the tourism industry before entering WWII made them all redundant?Thornton Hallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11402495641975262697noreply@blogger.com