Repression at University of Missouri, Kansas City

A very troubling report:

http://cas.umkc.edu/aaup/facadv23.html

Why the McCain Line on Iraq is Wrong

John McCain will be pushing the line that the "surge has worked," based on declines in attacks on US troops and declines in violence in Baghdad and al-Anbar Province, even as violence is again on the increase in some other parts of Iraq, and basic political and economic settlements remain unachieved. The problem is that neither of these declines in violence has had very much to do with an increase in the presence of US troops, although the case is stronger for Baghdad than for al-Anbar. In Baghdad the decline in violence would ultimately have happened because the main source of it was ethnic cleansing and the rise of sectarian segregation. This is now basically complete, with few integrated neighborhoods left and with many Sunnis fleeing both Baghdad and Iraq. A city that was 2/3 Shi'i, is now about 3/4 Shi'i, with the US effectively aiding this outcome.

The turning of tribal sheikhs against al-Qaeda in Iraq in al-Anbar Province has had nothing to do with increased US troops (although providing arms probably helped) and everything to do with al-Qaeda in Iraq stupidly killing sons of some of those sheikhs. Ironically, one of the biggest neocon hawks, Charles Krauthammer, has effectively admitted this. He criticized Dems in Congress for saying the 2006 election changed things by pointing out that this change of attitude had happened prior to the election, even as McCain and crew are claiming it came later in 2007 with the US troop surge. Not so. Bottom line is that the violence situation has been naturally self-stabilizing, making it much easier to engage in large-scale withdrawals of US troops without destabilizing Iraq beyond what it is anyway.

More on Labor Markets vs. Family Values

Following up my last post that suggested family stability inhibits labor flexibility, I might mention that in our own recent hiring experience at Chico State, an inordinate number of good candidates proved unemployable because of the need to accommodate a spouse.

In a similar vein, Andrew Oswald showed that home ownership is the most reasonable explanation for differences in unemployment rates between countries. His scatter graph has a very impressive fit, presumably because people with homes are less likely to pick up and leave for a new job.

Oswald, Andrew J. 1999. "The Housing Market and Europe's Unemployment: A Non-Technical Paper."

http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/staff/faculty/oswald/homesnt.pdf

PEAK FOOD

by the Sandwichman

A guy came into the food co-op today to pick up the four 25-pound sacks of wheat he special ordered. He told me to "pick up a couple of sacks of wheat for yourself and store them in your basement." So I took a look at recent news stories on agricultural commodity prices. Prices are soaring. Every kind of planted crop has increased in price by 30% to 50% over the past few months. This will have a huge impact on food prices.

Things are going to get very interesting.

Economists vs Family (Human) Values?

Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers proposed an analogy between the supposed rigidity of European labor markets and the stability of European families:

"The U.S. labor market, like its marriage markets, differs from Europe in having substantially greater "churn"; in any given month in the United States, workers are more likely to be fired than are their European counterparts and those without a match are more likely to be hired. There is an emerging consensus that restrictions on churning in European labor markets yield inefficient labor markets with "too few" job separations. We do not mean to suggest by analogy that Europe is afflicted with too few divorces."

Stevenson, Betsey and Justin Wolfers. 2007. "Marriage and Divorce: Changes and their Driving Forces." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21: 2 (Spring): pp. 27-52, p. 50.



Although they downplay the seriousness of their analogy, they may actually be on to something. Economists also know that home ownership, which might also contribute to family stability, represents a barrier to labor mobility. In effect, the ideal members labor force would be people without any attachments. Even better, these workers sprout like mushrooms already formed, like an 18-years old, age and expire on the day of retirement.

Departures from Conservatism and Republican Presidents

Jeff Frankel has made his only third blog post and it’s a gem. Let’s start with his criteria for departures from conservatism:

(1) Growth in the size of the government, as measured by employment and spending.
(2) Lack of fiscal discipline, as measured by budget deficits.
(3) Lack of commitment to price stability, as measured by pressure on the Fed for easier monetary policy when politically advantageous.
(4) Departures from free trade.
(5) Use of government powers to protect and subsidize favored special interests (such as the oil and gas sector, among many others).

Hard to argue with this list of economics departures from conservative principles and hard to argue that George W. Bush has not violated the first two and the last two. Ronald Reagan does not fare well based on these criteria either and #3 seems to be directed towards Nixon. As Jeff notes:

I would contend that, not just George W. Bush, but also Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and (to a lesser extent) George H.W. Bush, all - in sharp distinction from their conservative rhetoric - in practice have been interventionist. They have all wandered, far from the principles of good neoclassical economics, and far from from the principles of small government and laissez faire. How far? Farther than did, for example, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton … Documentation that Republican presidents have since 1971 indulged in these five departures from “conservatism” to a greater extent than Democratic presidents can be found in some writings of mine, listed below. The name I would give to this set of economic policies, as well as to the parallel abuses of executive power in the areas of foreign policy and domestic policy, is neither “liberal” nor “conservative” but, rather, “illiberal.”

Jeff also offers a link to a 2003 paper that he wrote on this topic.

subprime primer

David Shemano sent me this nice power point primer on the subprime crisis. I don't know how to upload it to this blog, but here is a URL.

http://michaelperelman.wordpress.com/2008/02/15/a-subprime-primer/

NYC Mayor Joins the Coalition Against the Fiscal Stimulus

OK, the bill has been signed into law and the checks are in the mail, but this did not keep Michael Bloomberg from having his say:

Mayor Michael Bloomberg has unleashed another flurry of jabs on Washington, ridiculing the federal government's rebate checks as being "like giving a drink to an alcoholic" on Thursday, and said the presidential candidates are looking for easy solutions to complex economic problems. The billionaire and potential independent presidential candidate also said the nation "has a balance sheet that's starting to look more and more like a third-world country."

Ouch! But the mayor did have praise for another idea:

His tirade against the candidates and the economic stimulus package on Thursday began when he was asked how that experiment is going. In his answer, he praised Democrat Barack Obama for the plan the Illinois senator outlined on Wednesday that would create a National Infrastructure Reinvestment Bank to rebuild highways, bridges, airports and other public projects. Obama projects it could generate nearly 2 million jobs. Last month, Bloomberg and Govs. Arnold Schwarzenegger of California and Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania announced a coalition that would urge more investment in infrastructure. "I don't know whether Senator Obama looked to see what I've been advocating, or not - you'll have to ask him - but he's doing the right thing," Bloomberg said.

White House/Wodehouse

I draw your attention to the letters page of the Times today, where William Julius Wilson smacks down Krugman for last weeks' "Nixonland" column. It really was a nasty column. The reader is clearly given the impression that the MSNBC guy who made the inexcusable comment about Chelsea was acting at the behest of Obama's campaign. The column is a prime example of the sneaking insinuation it purports to decry.



But enough of the road to the White House. I took an escapist break this past weekend and re-read Pigs Have Wings, by P.G. Wodehouse. I have read just about all of Wodehouse's stuff and he is just phenomenal. Wodehouse has been admired by people as different as Evelyn Waugh and Alexander Cockburn. He is the best writer of comedy ever to have lifted a pen, I think. While the novels involving Bertie Wooster and his butler Jeeves are more widely known, I strongly recommend the Blandings Castle series, of which Pigs is one. Much of the plotting revolves around the corpulent Empress of Blandings, Lord Emsworth's prize pig, who has won the prize for corpulence at the local Agricultural Show on multiple occasions, despite the nefarious attempts on the part of owners of rival pigs to hobble him. I guess you had to be there - as it were- but if you've never read him before, drop everything until you have. You will thank me. How can you not like a man who pens throwaway lines such as:

"If not positively disgruntled, he was certainly far from gruntled,"

The Next Steroids.

I'm not much of a sports fan, but the story below suggests once again that it's time to take the money totally out of sports (beyond salaries for jobs done). The "winner take all" nature of the game creates a gigantic incentive to use performance-enhancing drugs to get into the high-paid majors (which pay much (much) more than the minors and amateur sports) or to stay there (cf. Barry Bonds).

If things continue to go the way they are going, big-league professional sports will either involve cyborgs, druggies, and/or transplantees -- or it will involve a draconian and intrusive system to prevent any kind of significant enhancement (making an extremely arbitrary decision about what's "significant").

So, even though (as an inveterate couch potato) I can't be the pied piper in this movement, I think sports fans should shun major-league sports and flock to (truly) amateur sports, or as a compromise, minor-league sports. The Olympics would be a good place to start: fans should insist that it go back to amateur athletics, perhaps with some allowance for athletes receiving a standardized salary.

My friend Ian responded that "Athletes have been cyborgs since shoes and helmets were invented and the pharmacology of performance enhancement is thousands of years old."

True, but that doesn't change the point: we have to end the winner-take-all nature of sports. (Look what winner-take-all competition does to politics! but that's another question.)


The New York Times / February 12, 2008
Finding May Solve Riddle of Fatigue in Muscles
By GINA (Piña) KOLATA

One of the great unanswered questions in physiology is why muscles get tired. The experience is universal, common to creatures that have muscles, but the answer has been elusive until now.

Scientists at Columbia say they have not only come up with an answer, but have also devised, for mice, an experimental drug that can revive the animals and let them keep running long after they would normally flop down in exhaustion.

For decades, muscle fatigue had been largely ignored or misunderstood. Leading physiology textbooks did not even try to offer a mechanism, said Dr. Andrew Marks, principal investigator of the new study. A popular theory, that muscles become tired because they release lactic acid, was discredited not long ago.

In a report published Monday in an early online edition of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Dr. Marks says the problem is calcium flow inside muscle cells. Ordinarily, ebbs and flows of calcium in cells control muscle contractions. But when muscles grow tired, the investigators report, tiny channels in them start leaking calcium, and that weakens contractions. At the same time, the leaked calcium stimulates an enzyme that eats into muscle fibers, contributing to the muscle exhaustion.

-ellipsis-

Then, collaborating with David Nieman, an exercise scientist at Appalachian State University in Boone, N.C., the investigators asked whether the human skeletal muscles grew tired for the same reason, calcium leaks.

Highly trained bicyclists rode stationary bikes at intense levels of exertion for three hours a day three days in a row. For comparison, other cyclists sat in the room but did not exercise.

Dr. Nieman removed snips of thigh muscle from all the athletes after the third day and sent them to Columbia, where Dr. Marks's group analyzed them without knowing which samples were from the exercisers and which were not.The results, Dr. Marks said, were clear. The calcium channels in the exercisers leaked. A few days later, the channels had repaired themselves. The athletes were back to normal.

Of course, even though Dr. Marks wants to develop the drug to help people with congestive heart failure, hoping to alleviate their fatigue and improve their heart functions, athletes might also be tempted to use it if it eventually goes to the market.

-ellipsis-

So the day may come when there is an antifatigue drug.

That idea, "is sort of amazing," said Dr. Steven Liggett, a heart-failure researcher at the University of Maryland. Yet, Dr. Liggett said, for athletes "we have to ask whether it would be prudent to be circumventing this mechanism."

"Maybe this is a protective mechanism," he said. "Maybe fatigue is saying that you are getting ready to go into a danger zone. So it is cutting you off. If you could will yourself to run as fast and as long as you could, some people would run until they keeled over and died."

Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

A View of Obama's Win from Virginia

So, this is the first time ever that I am aware of that a primary in Virginia has been important in tilting a presidential nominating race, now all the more significant since VA appears to be competitive in the national election, despite an edge John McCain may have with all the military personnel and veterans in the state (and, yes, most of those protesting Evangelical pro-Huckabee supporters will probably "go home" to him against that obvious "Muslim," Barack Hussein Obama). I had made forecasts in a local blog about the outcome, but way underpredicted the scale of Obama's win (as did everybody else).

I note that some of the media has been misreporting things. I heard somebody this morning on ABC claim that Obama won "all regions" of VA. Not so. Except for saying Northern VA would be close (it was a blowout for Obama) I came near to perfectly forecasting the regional outcomes in the state. I said the Blue Ridge Mountains would be the line, with Hillary winning most locales west of them, with the city of Harrisonburg (where I live) a possible exception (it went for Obama with 69%), and east of the mountains going for Obama, with the exception maybe of a few counties just east of the mountains in the Southwest. This is how it played out. Among the counties east of the Blue Ridge in the Southwest going for Hillary was Franklin County, long famous as the Moonshine Capital of America (yes, she got the Dukes of Hazzard vote, especially Daisy's mom and aunt). One of the few mistakes I made was that the county containing Harrisonburg (here in VA, alone among states, counties do not embed cities), Rockingham, also went for Obama, although only by 57%. I blame this on the influence of Harrisonburg on the county. The only identifiable demographic group going for Hillary statewide were white women, by 55% (which group included my wife, who says "we need a woman as president to keep those macho bastards in line"). I close by noting that both Rockingham and Harrisonburg and the areas that went for Hillary, mostly also went for Huckabee on the Republican side.

Support the Troops, Not!

The mantra about supporting the troops is like the conservatives concerned about the sanctity of life until after the baby is born. The military opposes improving the GI Bill because it gives soldiers and incentive not to reenlist. Even after a soldier leaves, navigating the system is complicated and the ultimate funding is inadequate for a college education, except, perhaps from a mail-order diploma mill. Here is the story from the Boston Globe.


Sennott, Charles M. 2008. "GI Bill Falling Short of College Tuition Costs: Pentagon Resists Boost In Benefits." Boston Globe (10 February).

"The original GI Bill provided full tuition, housing, and living costs for some 8 million veterans; for many, it was the engine of opportunity in the postwar years. But, in the mid 1980s, the program was scaled back to a peacetime program that pays a flat sum. Today the most a veteran can receive is approximately $9,600 a year for four years -- no matter what college costs."

"The Pentagon and White House have so far resisted a new GI Bill out of fear that too many will use it -- choosing to shed the uniform in favor of school and civilian life. "The incentive to serve and leave," said Robert Clarke, assistant director of accessions policy at the Department of Defense, may "outweigh the incentive to have them stay"."

"Paul Rieckhoff, an Iraq war veteran and director of the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, an organization based in New York, said that enhancing the GI Bill is a solid investment in the country's future. One study he cites suggests that every dollar spent on the original GI Bill created a seven-fold return for the economy. "Funding the GI Bill as Senator Webb proposes it for one year would cost this country what it spends in Iraq in 36 hours," he said."

"Beyond the financial struggle is a daunting bureaucratic obstacle course that can confound veterans and sometimes steer them away from the benefit altogether. That struggle starts with the requirement that all participants buy into the program with a $1,200 upfront payment. William Bardenwerper, an Army veteran of Iraq with an undergraduate degree from Princeton University, described a six-month odyssey of paperwork in trying to navigate the current GI Bill. He kept a detailed log of his frustrating, and to-date fruitless, effort to access his benefits for graduate school. "Not to sound elitist," said Bardenwerper, "but if a 31-year-old Princeton grad has a hard time deciphering what he is entitled to, then I have no idea how a 21-year-old armed only with a GED could navigate this system."

"Clarke, of the Department of Defense, said it is simply off-base to compare what was offered to World War II veterans to the situation today. There was no concern about retention rates back then, he said; rapid demobilization was the order of the day."

Taxes, Mandates and Rebates

I have to disagree with Mark Thoma regarding the equity advantage of mandates (like CAFE standards) over taxes on carbons and other bads. I think he misses two points: equity can be credibly built into the tax, and mandates and taxes (or permits) are not mutually exclusive.



For simplicity, let’s assume that the policy on the table is a carbon tax, overlooking the advantages (in this case) of a tradeable permit system. Requiring 100% auction of permits would be equivalent to a tax under full certainty, but in an uncertain world—the one I woke up in this morning—a permit system would nail down the atmospheric impacts at the expense of price volatility, while taxes would do the opposite. But we will ignore this for now and talk only of taxes.

My first point is that a tax system could be introduced with the stipulation that all (or a very, very high percentage of) proceeds be rebated to citizens on a per capita basis. As Boyce and Riddle show, this would be highly progressive, benefitting a solid majority of us on a net basis (even after subtracting higher prices from rebate income). Yes, the rich could still whiz by on the freeway in their supersized guzzlers, but ordinary folks could take comfort in their ability to buy more of the non-carbon-emitting stuff. They might even think, as the behemoth roars by, “That’s another dollar in my pocket.”

Thoma worries that low income people might worry that a future administration and congress might tinker with the rebate formula. Maybe, but it’s our job to nudge perceptions as close as possible to reality. Consider Social Security: we have seen multiple attempts in recent years to eviscerate the program, but they have been turned back every time, for a simple reason: most of us benefit from SS and would lose out if it were privatized. The same goes for a rebate plan. If it is written in as a basic entitlement, once the rebates start rolling the program will be virtually impregnable.

Second, I am sensing an emerging competition between tax (or permit) advocates and those pushing higher standards. There is no reason for this to happen, and each should stand or fall on its own merits. For instance, students of energy efficiency, like Gar Lipow, tell us that there is lots of low-hanging fruit—big improvements in efficiency at no net cost or even producing a net benefit. The purpose of a standard would be to circumvent information gaps, coordination failures and the like. A tax doesn’t change any of this; on the contrary, by enlarging the pool of innovations that can ultimately pay for themselves, a tax can justify an even more stringent efficiency standard. On the reverse side, a well-designed efficiency standard can help the public better cope with the demands of a tax. True, a bad standard can be an efficiency-loser, but we don’t want this beast with or without a tax.

Keeping an eye on the bottom line, once we get a new congress and a new president in 2009, a national climate change program will be on the table. We are likely to get a carbon cap: a permit system that limits carbon emissions, with the cap going down on a yearly basis. We have to stay very focused to avoid fine print that will weaken the effect of the program or steer the huge amount of money involved into the pockets of the upper class. But we should also use the opportunity to look for regulations that target bottlenecks and irrationalities in the market: better energy efficiency in transportation, land use, the built environment.

Why either/or?

Will the GOP Ever Join the Pigou Club?

Mark Thoma wonders why there is more support for mandates such as CAFE standards over Pigouvian taxes as a means of addressing the problem of global warming and comes up with this:

In thinking about efficiency as the primary reason for promoting one policy over the other, I think we might be missing something important: equity. More choice is best most of the time, but when it's a matter of being constrained, of not being able to do something you want or need to do, people want that constraint on behavior to be shared equally - especially when it involves something as essential to daily life as energy.

Kevin Drum challenges the premise that mandates are politically preferred to taxes, but then adds this bit of realism:

Republican politicians, of course, are a whole different story. Greg Mankiw can yell "Pigou Club" until he's blue in the face, but as a Republican himself he knows perfectly well that it won't do any good because Grover Norquist and the Wall Street Journal editorial page will cheerfully eviscerate any Republican who dares to raise any tax of any kind, regardless of how efficient it is, what it's funding, or whether it's revenue neutral.

Greg does seem to be trying to alter this Norquist dominance over GOP politics. Good luck Greg!

Good for the Geese, Bad for the Geezer

Out running today, I had occasion to think about the difficulties involved in sharing the planet with geese. These hefty birds would be a plus in every respect were it not for their shortcomings in the domain of personal hygiene. While picking my way gingerly along the route, I focused on possible solutions.



First, we need to direct environmental budgets to serious problems, like goose poop. If people were pooping in public to anywhere near the same extent, stopping it would be viewed as a top priority.

Now on to specifics. As we know, geese are subject to imprinting. We should pay people to become surrogate goose-parents and to lead them (as pictured in the linked photo) to an appropriate bathroom or outhouse so that they can see what proper pooping looks like. But this will create a further complication: geese, alighting from their migrations, will be knocking on doors everywhere, asking to use the facilities. To forestall this, I recommend building banks of public toilets along known flyways. This might seem extravagant, but the size of these goose-a-potties can be small, holding down costs.

And then we humans can run along rivers and bays without staring at our feet all the time.