The inflation fallacy redux

 Peter Dorman had a post on this topic here a while back.  The inflation fallacy says that inflation doesn't affect real income, since aggregate nominal income increases at the same rate as prices. 

But today you can't shake a stick without hitting someone, economist or lay-person alike,  talking about the harm that the current inflation is doing to real income.

So: what is going on?  If the inflation fallacy is correct then a fall in real wages  would imply an increase in real non-labor income. Is that happening?

But the larger point of the fallacy is that changes in real income have real, not monetary, causes.  If, for example, an increase in labor supply reduces the equilibrium real wage, this may well manifest itself in an inflation rate in excess of wage growth, and the blame for lower real wages might be placed, fallaciously, on high inflation.

So why are real wages falling? One explanation, given by Jason Furman, is that the demand-induced expansion of employment is the cause--real wages behaving, as is typical, counter-cyclically.

But something about that doesn't sit right with me. Lately, I have been thinking back, way back, to Bob Rowthorn's "conflict theory of inflation."  One implication is that the stagnation of real income, or a reduction in its growth rate --  and hasn't the pandemic been responsible for such a stagnation? -- can lead to inflation as everyone, capitalist and worker alike, tries to maintain their real incomes.  This is consistent with the inflation fallacy: we want to treat the consequence, higher inflation, as the cause, pandemic-induced lower real income.

I'm really asking for help here, and would love to hear what Peter, Barkley and Tom think.

(BTW, I have the same puzzlement when I read descriptions of the great inflation related to the influx of New World gold as a cause of lower real wages and capital accumulation.)

Just How Bad Is Biden's Trip To Saudi Arabia?

 Yes, I posted on this awhile ago, but at that time it was a maybe. Now he is in the air on his way, although, of course, to Israel and the West Bank first, where I have no complaint or comment much.

So, basically what I said earlier largely holds, that this is not a trip with much good likely to come out of it. Main "goods"?: affirmation of in-place cease-fire in awful war in Yemen, a diplomatic triumph of the Biden admin, but I doubt much improvement on that situation happening from this trip. Yes, it will probably "affirm" it, but that is not much. 

Do not expect much on the Israeli front, either there, in the West Bank, or in terms of Saudi-Israeli relations, main reason for that is current Israeli government is in process of collapsing. Elections about to happen and we may have the awful Netanyahu back. Oh, I guess this may be an argument for Biden visiting at least Israel now while he can talk to the less bad current government before it falls.

On oil prices, well, I doubt Saudis will do much, and to the extent they probably already have, and crude prices did just drop below $100 barrel today (technically now yesterday), anyway, just prior to Biden's departure, which may be all he will get on that front, although people are ridiculing him for going just for this reason.

Oh, he might get some political prisoners out. Actually, I think that might happen. This reminds me of he old US-Soviet days.  Soviets would always let some political prisoners out at a summit. I suspect this will happen, there being a well-known and long list of these, a couple of whom I know personally.  Needless to say, there is no way to bring back the late chopped-up Jamal Khoshoggi.

Of course, the worst thing about this trip is that for oil prices Biden did not need it (and will not get much). He could have and should have cut the deal with Iran as he said he would. Gossip says he was too taken in by "the Blob" in DC that just hates Iran. But this was a deal that should have been done, and now the Iranians will be supplying drones to the Russians. This continues to be by far the biggest error of the Biden admin, way above all.  He should have ignored these Blob assholes and do what he promised to do, which the vast majority of the world supported him to do.  Super big mistake, making this whole trip look just awful.

As  a final note I shall dump on Trump and Jared Kershner more specifically for the fact that Biden has to deal with the authoritarian murderer, MbS. The not widely reported fact is that they aided in his coming to power in what was effectrively a coup, and he paid them off big time, especially Kushner to the tune of $2 billion when Trump left office. This is why he could not get a security clearance, Kushner. Jared visited and provided intel to MbS privately on his enemies before he pulled his coup. 

The coup was to send his Ministry of Defense people to the palace of the then Crown Prince, Muhammed bin Nayef bin Abdulaziz al Sa'ud, much respected by US authorities who dealt with him, who imprisoned him and demanded that he step aside, which he eventually did. Trump and Kushner supported this. Bin Nayef was a reasonable guy, who remains under house arrest to this day. This is the real source of the fact that Biden has to deal with this horrible murderer, and, unfortunately, he must.

Barkley Rosser

What is Happiness?

 Post your entries in the comments. Sandwichman WILL JUDGE THEM.

White Rabbit

 I have finished reading to my two younger grandsons the two Alice books by Lewis Carroll. I read the edition with commentary by the late mathematician, Martin Gardner, who used to write for Scientific American. I also just listened to Jefferson Airplane's "White Rabbit," which is pretty bloody sharp, but which draws on both of the Alice books. While most attention is on the first one, "Wonderland," which got made into a not bad cartoon by Disney, the deep one is the second one, "Through the Looking Glass," with Dodgson (oh, excuse me, Carrol) a professor of logic at Oxford University, Oh, it really is deep shit.

There are so many cliches out of the book, but in fact the more serious ones come from the second one. The most cited of all lines from all the Alice books comes from the second one. It is when Alice encountereds the notorious Red Queen, whom she ultimately captures in the end, although that leads to the deep matte of life being a dream as the Red Queen turns into a silly kitten upon shaking and waking.

Anyway, that most famous line from all of them, which has economics signifigance, is the famous moment when the Red Queen drags her on to run very very fast, only to stay in the same place.

Barkley

Abraham Lincoln quoting Thomas Jefferson on judicial despotism and oligarchy

At Springfield, Illinois, July 17, 1858

Now, as to the Dred Scott decision; for upon that he [Douglas] makes his last point at me. He boldly takes ground in favor of that decision.

This is one-half the onslaught, and one-third of the entire plan of the campaign. I am opposed to that decision in a certain sense, but not in the sense which he puts on it. I say that in so far as it decided in favor of Dred Scott’s master and against Dred Scott and his family, I do not propose to disturb or resist the decision.

I never have proposed to do any such thing. I think, that in respect for judicial authority, my humble history would not suffer in a comparison with that of Judge Douglas. He would have the citizen conform his vote to that decision; the Member of Congress, his; the President, his use of the veto power. He would make it a rule of political action for the people and all the departments of the government. I would not. By resisting it as a political rule, I disturb no right of property, create no disorder, excite no mobs.

When he spoke at Chicago, on Friday evening of last week, he made this same point upon me. On Saturday evening I replied and reminded him of a Supreme Court decision which he opposed for at least several years. Last night, at Bloomington, he took some notice of that reply; but entirely forgot to remember that part of it.

He renews his onslaught upon me, forgetting to remember that I have turned the tables against himself on that very point. I renew the effort to draw his attention to it. I wish to stand erect before the country as well as Judge Douglas, on this question of judicial authority; and therefore I add something to the authority; and therefore I add something to the authority in favor of my position. I wish to show that I am sustained by authority, in addition to that heretofore presented. I do not expect to convince the Judge. It is part of the plan of his campaign, and he will cling to it with a desperate grip. Even, turn it upon him – turn the sharp point against him, and gaff him through – he will still cling to it till he can invent some new dodge to take the place of it.

In public speaking of it is tedious reading from documents; but I must beg to indulge the practice to a limited extent. I shall read from a letter written by Mr. Jefferson in 1820, and now to be found in the seventh volume of his correspondence, at page 177. It seems he had been presented by a gentleman of the name of Jarvis with a book, or essay, or periodical, called the ‘Republican,’ and he was writing in acknowledgement of the present, and noting some if its contents. After expressing the hope that the work will produce a favorable effect upon the minds of the young, he proceeds to say:

That it will have this tendency may be expected, and for that reason I feel an urgency to note what I deem an error in it, the more requiring notice as your opinion is strengthen by that of many others. You seem in pages 84 and 148, to consider the judges as the ultimate, arbiters of all constitutional questions – a very dangerous doctrine indeed and one which would place us under the despotism of an oligarchy. Our judges are as honest as other men, and not more so. They have, with others, the same passions for party, for power, and the privilege of their corps. Their maxim is, ‘boni judicis est ampliare jurisdictionem’; and their power is the more dangerous as they are in office for life, and not responsible, as the other functionaries are, to the elective control. The Constitution has erected no such single tribunal, knowing that to whatever hands confided, with the corruptions of time and party, its members would become despots. It has more wisely made all the departments co-equal and co-sovereign within themselves.

Thus we see the power claimed for the Supreme Court by Judge Douglas, Mr. Jefferson holds, would reduce us to the despotism of an oligarchy.

Now, I have said no more than this – in fact, never quite so much as this – at least I am sustained by Mr. Jefferson.

Vladimir Mau Has Been Arrested

 Vladimir who? I appreciate that most readers have never heard of this individual. But this is the sign of a major new shift in the situation in Russia. To make clear why this is important: until quite recently Vladimir Mau was the top economic advisor of V.V. Putin. Just prior to his arrest, he has just been reelected to the Board of Gazprom, the most important state-owned company in Russia. Apparently his arrest is part of a broader wave of arrests of prominent Russians who have apparently criticized the current policy of Putin. But I do not know what Mau said or did that led to this arrest. For all I had heard and knew he was a strong Putin supporter.

This is arguably the fuller confirmation of an older report that had been floating around for several years. This report was that in the past Putin paid attention to economic advisors such as Mau, for better or worse, with some of us, frankly, not particularly big fans of Mau. But he also paid attention to others as well, such as super capable Central Bank President, Elvira Naibullina, who reportedly attempted to resign from her position, but was blocked from doing so by Putin himself. But her husband has managed to get himself out of running the Higher Economic School of Economics ("Vwishka" for insiders). I have only the greatest worry and concern and sympathy for these people at this time, especially given this recent arrest of Mau.

What seems to have happened is that Putin stopped paying attention to his economic advisors, led by Mau, probably about the time of the arrival of the Covid-19 pandemic, which led him to retreating from most public interactions. So, reportedly, instead of economic advisors like Mau, he concentrated on an inner circle following the essentially fascistic "Eurasianist" views of people like llya Ilyugin and more importantly, Alexander Dugin, whose 1997 book on this stuff is now required reading by Russian senior military officers. 

Barkley Rosser

Barkley Rosser

Compensating Wage Differentials according to Dilbert

 

A Break On The JCPOA Iran Nuclear Deal?

 Maybe.

It is now reported that "talks are to resume," although most observers are not optimistic. But then today there is a report of a shakeup in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards hierarchy who seem to control the most serious of these things. Head of their intel, Taeb, has been removed, although it is unclear what this will lead to, despite noises he was too hardline and maybe a deal can be cut with these renewed talks.

Barkley Rosser

Muth and Lucas: Call your offices!

 On his Marginal Revolution blog, Tyler Cowen describes the recent "purge" in the trucking industry. The pandemic shift in demand towards goods, as opposed to services, produced a big increase in the demand for trucking, which in turn produced a huge response, including a  big increase in the number of small trucking companies. Now that is all being reversed, precipitously, with trucking companies falling like flies--the purge.

This all sounds very, very "cobwebby" to me. It was Muth's article criticizing the cobweb model that inspired Lucas' "rational expectations revolution." I am old enough to have learned the cobweb model in  a principles course, but I don't know of any modern texts where it appears. We moderns have read Muth and know that rational expectations kill cobwebs.

Let's  syllologize:

If ratex is true, then no cobwebs.

Cobwebs.

Ergo, ratex is false.

qed

Chaos Theory And The End Of Roe V Wade

 Probably the most famous characteristic of chaotic dynamics is the phenomenon known formally as sensitive dependence on initial conditions, which is more popularly known as the "butterfly effect." In such dynamics a small change in a starting value or a parameter value can rapidly lead to very different outcomes from what would have happened otherwise.  It was first clearly identified and labeled by the climatologist, Edward Lorenz, in 1963 in a paper in the Journal of Atmospheric Sciences.. While he showed it there, famously a matter of a sixth decimal place, it was much later that he provided the popular tale that "a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil can cause a hurricane in Texas."

It was Deirdre McCloskey who pointed out to me a literary historical example of this from Shakespeare's Richard III. "For want of a nail, the shoe was lost; for want of a shoe the hoof was lost; for want of hoof the horse was lost; for want of a horse the knight was lost; for want of the knight the battle was lost; for want of the battle, the kingdom was lost." 

So we have a version of this underlying the decision of the US Supreme Court to revoke the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that granted the right to have an abortion, not to mention the other decisions that have just come down involving guns and Miranda rights, and so on.  I think I have figured out the equivalent of that nail in the Shakespeare line that amounts to the butterfly wing flap that led to this.

It gets down to a third rate politician, the embarrassingly named Andrew Weiner, who could not restrain himself from taking photos (and videos?) of his own erections that he would send to various women. He happened to be husband of Human Abedin, who unfortunately did not dump him earlier.  They stuck together, even as he continued this nonsense. Even more unfortunately she was a top aide of Hillary Clinton through all this. And even more unfortunately somehow some of these photos got onto a phone of Abedin's, a phone where there were emails from Hillary Clinton that should not have been sent.

So, 11 days before the 2016 presidential election, at a point when Hillary Clinton was leading Donald Trump in the race, FBI Director James Comey publicized a renewed investigation of how Hillary Clinton's emails had inappropriately gotton on Abedin's phone. The FBI became aware of this because they had been investigating Weiner's photographic games with his weiner and found her emails.  By the time of the election it was determined that there was no there there, but the result of the publicity surrounding the renewal of this investigation set off a decline in Clinton's polls, a decline that was sufficient to lead to Donald Trump winning the election.

And the rest is history, with him appointing the justices to the court who put these rulings over the line.

Barkley Rosser

Robert Haveman, RIP

 Robert (Bob) Haveman died on June 18, aged 85.  He had been at the University of Wisconsin-Madison since 1970, when I first met him, where he served as Chair of the econ dept., director of the Institute for Research on Poverty, and also Director of the LaFollette Institute for Public Policy.  A very policy-oriented economist with a progressive perspective, he published widely on public finance, poverty and social policy, environmental and natural resources economics, and benefit-cost analysis, amI along other things.  He visited at many universities around the world and belonged to many international organizations, including serving as president of the International Public Finance Society. Just this spring he was made a Fellow of the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis.  He was a lively and outgoing man, always very friendly, who is survived by his wife and colleague, Bobbi Wolfe, who is at the Institute for Research on Poverty at UW.

Born in Grand Rapids, Michigan, he was the first person in his family to go to college and got his PhD in economics from Vanderbilt in 1963. After teaching at Grinnel College, he went to Washington where he became the right-hand man of Senator William Proxmire (D-Wis), who chaired the Joint Economic Committee.  It was from there that he moved to UW-Madison in 1970, having a more progressive view than the rather centrist Proxmire, who was very popular in Wisconsin and had taken over the Senate seat previously held by the late Joe McCarthy. Proxmire was famous for handing out "golden fleece" awardsat press conferences for government spending projects he considered to be wasteful or corruptly satisfying narrow special interests. While indeed Bob was more progressive than Proxmire, his interest in benefit-cost analysis showed a link with "The Prox" in being concerned about the efficiency of government activities and avoiding wasteful spending.

I always got along with Bob, but I must admit that I and several of my more radical fellow grad students tended to sneer at him and give him a bit of a hard time when he first showed up. He seemed to us to represent Establishment political economy and Washington writ large at a time when that was all tied to the war in Vietnam. It was hard to credit Bob for his progressive side, with him not involved in foreign policy at all, but it was also easier to scorn him for his association with Proxmire, who was somewhat more conservative than many other Democrats, such as his fellow senator from Wisconsin, Gaylord Nelson, who opposed the war in Vietnam and was the main figure behind the starting of Earth Day. Bob would probably have viewed better if he had been associated with Nelson than Proxmire, although the latter's more centrist and squeaky clean reputation made him enormously popular in Wisconsin.  

While Bob was always friendly to everybody, I know he viewed those of us who gave him a hard time as annoying pests, and I think he long thought that I in particular was kind of a madman, although he never quite outright said so, just vaguely hinted it in later years with a smile.  I am sorry he is gone.

I shall close this with an anecdote that is really about Proxmie, with Bob playing a bit role.  It was in Winter, 1972, and there was a rumor that Proxmire was thinking of joining the race for the presidency. He sis not do so, but there was this moment when it looked like he might, and in that moment he showed up at the UW-Madison econ dept. to give a talk, the only time that I think he ever did so. Needless to say, his super-excited host was Bob Havemen, who ran all about the dept. urging one and all, even us crazy radical grad students, to show up to hear him speak.  I never saw Bob more excited about anything ever, the prospect that The Proz might run, and Bob might end up in some really serious policy position in Washington, as we cynically noted at the time.

So Proxmire gave his talk on the 8th floor of our building with its great view of Lake Mendota behind him.  Of course, he gave his usual stump speech about battling against special interests and government waste and all that. But then one professor, Lau Christenson, who later ran an econometrics consulting firm that I think still exists, asked him a question: "Given that you are opposed to government favors for special interests, how is it that you support import quotas for dairy products to protect Wisconsin dairy farmers?" To this, The Prox just smiled and replied, "Well, after all, I am the senior senator from the state of Wisconsin." We all laughed, but I wonder to this day if getting that question was what put him off from running for the White House.  I am sure Bob Haveman was not happy about it, may he RIP.

Barkley Rosser

Tariffs and Inflation

 Jason Furman and Janet Yellen have both suggested that cutting Trump's tariffs would  be anti-inflationary. But most economists agree that the incidence of the tariffs is  for the most part on US consumers, not foreign suppliers (pace the treasonous and ignorant former president, who crowed about all the revenues we were raising from China). So how is a tax cut anti-inflationary?  There is a supply-side effect, which is all to the good, but the demand-side effects may well wash that out. So get rid of the tariffs but reverse the Trump tax cuts, which Manchin favors, through reconciliation. Taxes remain the same, so we've neutralized the effects on demand;  and we still get the good supply side effects of a more rational global division of labor.   

A Deadline Passes And Stalin Is Exchanged For Peter The Great

 I am not all that much into posting about the ups and downs of the Special Operation in Ukraine, but it seems that there has been one of those lines crossed. While it was not widely publicized, June 10 was apparently a deadline set by V.V. Putin for Russian forces to conquer Severodonetsk.  While reportedly they control a solid majority of that now mostly destroyed city, with 90% of its population having left, Ukrainians still control portions, especially an industrial zone, somewhat mimicking Mariuopol, and are also bombarding Russian forces from a hillside in Lyschansk across the Siviersky Donets River. The deadline has not been met, even as much western declares as it has been doing for some time now that the Russians will probably gain full control "within a few days."  Maybe.

In any case, there have been some changes. One of them has been a curious shift of justification for the war. Putin has long identified his special operation as WW II redux, with the Ukrainian government supposedly run by a bunch of Nazis who need to be removed so that Ukraine can be "de-nazified." The now-defeated Azov battalion that was based in Mariuopol was founded by some apparentl neo-Nazis, although it was absorbed into the Ukrainian national guard and given new leadership. But that was about it for anybody who seemed seriously to be any sort of Nazis, not the Jewish president of Ukraine, V. Zelenskyy, whom Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov declared ar one point was a Nazi precisely because he was Jewish, although Putin then backed that off an apologized when this led to an outcry from Israeli leaders, who have maintained an official neutrality so far.

But now, on the 350th birthday of Peter the Great, Putin has invoked him as justidication for the invasion.  They need to "retake" what was theirs, like he did supposedy. In particular, Peter conquered portions of Ukraine from Sweden, notably at the 1704 Battle of Poltova, which is located southwest of Kharkiv. He even held territories on the Sea of Azov, recently battled over in this war, although it was not later under Catherine the Great that Crimea would be conquered.  However, after Poltova Peter would lose those territories bordering on the Sea of Azov to the Ottomans, ending up holding only the northeastern corner of what is now Ukraine at his death.  Ironically this is the region of Donbas where the most furious fighting is going on right now, including in the much-contested city of Severodonetsk. Anyway, what was supposedly an anti-Nazi war that was led by Stalin has now been transformed into an old fashioned imperalist one led by Peter the Great, the first Russian leader to declare himself an Emperor. Reportedly Putin has long admired him and is a native of the city named for him.

The major news media in the last few days has argued that on the ground things have shifted in Russia's favor, and on some matters they appear to have  Most particularly it seems the Ukrainians are running low on ammunition that works for most of their weapons, which are leftover Soviet ones. In a story this morning in the Washington Post it was reported that the balance of artillery firing between the two sides is now at a ten to one rate in favor of the Russians, which is allowing them to gradually take over villages by the old "we had to destroy it to save it" model the US used in Vietnam, although in fact the number of villages taken over recently seems to be fairly small.  The reports in the papers seem to ignore what is going on in the Kherson and Kharkiv fronts, where Ukraine had been gaining, although it appears those gains may be slowing.  It is also reported that because of this ammunition disadvantage, the Urkainians are now suffering higher casualties than the Russians.

There are also conflicting reports about the state of the Russian economy.  Supposedly, with the strong ruble, inflation has declined from a 20% rate to a still high 17% rate. The former McDonald's has reopened under a new ownership and logo. Oil revenues are up with the higher oil prices, although apparently imports have been way down, and a number of items are in short supply. Not reported in the western media is that the Duma has just passed a law allowing the government to block people from taking money from their bank accounts, which is causing some unhappiness. Those allegedly higher oil revenues may not be sufficient to cover the rising costs of the special operation.

Barkley Rosser

Why In The US IS D-Day Memorialized While The Battle Of Midway Is Not?

 Today is 6/6/22, 78 years after 6/6/44, D-Day, when American, British, and Canadian troops stormed beaches in Normandy to push the Germans out of France.  It was a dramatic landing, with many dying heroically, and depicted in several highly popular movies with famous actors in them, including The Longest Day and Saving Private Ryan. While not a full-blown holiday, it was recognized today, with ceremonies in certain locations such as the World War II Memorial in Bedford, Virginia about an hour and a half drive from where I am in Harrisonburg, a town which produced a disproportionate number of men who participated in the D-Day landing, and a disproportionate number who died doing so.

OTOH, two days ago was the 80th anniversary of the beginning of the three day Battle of Midway, which has never been memorialized or made much about in the US. I had not even been aware that was the date, although I saw a mention of it a few days earlier in some odd internet post. But there were no media stories or any recognition of it two days ago anywhere that I am aware of.  To the extent people make any fuss about June 4 it is as the anniversary of the 1989 attack on students occupying Tienanmen Square in Beijing while demonstrating for democracy.  This was a serious event and one worth remembering, (although one regular reader of this site might disagree).  But it is not because the 1989 event pushed aside memory of the beginning of the Battle of Midway. The latter simply has never gotten any attention in the US.

Now some reading this may find this not even a question worth asking.  After all, D-Day was Dramatic and Important and led to the liberation of Paris from the Nazis. Go see the films! But, as a matter of fact, in terms of the outcome of the war, the Battle of Midway was far more important than D-Day. It was to the Pacific theater of the war what Stalingrad was to the European theater, the turning point. When one looks at maps of the war showing the maximum extent of Japanese territorial control, which even included the two outermost Aleutian islands in Alaska, that map shows the Japanese territory as of 80 years ago, the time of the Battle of Midway, the point at which the Japanese stopped gaining territory. It is not obvious why it is not better or even at all remembered.

I think there are several reasons.  One is the clear competition in terms of dates with D-Day, which did not determine the outcome of the war in Europe, Stalingrad did that, but which was so intensely dramatic with all those soldiers trying to get onto the beach under a withering fire that killed thousands of them. Midway was a naval battle with no heroic landing, just a bunch of ships firing on each other, with the American ones managing to knock out more of the Japanese ones than vice versa. Pearl Harbor, a Japanese victory, was dramatic with the ships sunk in the harbor and many civilians affected with the surprise Japanese bombing attack  But, of course, the US was lucky on Dec. 7, 1941, also remembered much more than June 4, 1942, because indeed the US aircraft carriers were not there, being out on patrol. That they were not there and survived allowed for the victory at Midway, even if there no dramatic images coming out of that battle.

Even though D-Day was in a fundamental way less important than Midway, it seemed more important as it was immediately followed by the advance through France to Paris and then on beyond to Germany.  But in some sense its real meaning was that the US, UK, and Canada did not want to have a repeat of the Napoleonic wars when Russia got to Paris first and imposed the bistro on it (from the Russian word for "quickly"). Stalin had been begging these nations to do a D-Day for some time to help out the Soviets against the Germans, and indeed many charge that they let the Soviets do the heavy lifting at Stalingrad and Kursk of seriously defeating the German war machine, with millions of Soviet dead, while the Americans and British preserved the British Empire in India by saving the Suez Canal in North Africa from German conquest, and then fiddling around with the much less strategic invasion of Italy, which was arguably a sideshow and did not pull German troops from the Eastern Front. Bu the time D-Day rolled around, the Soviets clearly had Hitler on the run, and it was indeed a matter of getting to Paris before Stalin did.

In contrast there was no immediate followup after Midway where one saw prominent locations liberated soon after on a fairly rapid movement to Japan.  The Japanese were halted in their advance, but the Allies went into a period of consolidating before they began the long process of going from island to island to approach Japan, with indeed this taking a good three years.  And arguably some of the later naval battles were more dramatic at Leyte Gulf and Guadalcanal, the largest naval battles in all of history. But by the time they came around, just as Germany was on the retreat by D-Day, so was Japan by the time of those bloody battles.

There is also a final reason that I think is both important and not widely recognized. The key to the US victory at Midway was the breaking of the Japanese code, a matter that was kept super secret even for a long time after the war. The actual tactics of the Americans at Midway were even crafted in a way to conceal it from the Japanese, much less anybody else, that the code was broken, which meant that the Americans could have even more decisively defeated the Japanese there. But doing so would have made it clear that the Americans knew many details of the Japanese locations only obtainable by having broken the code. I think that this need to keep the breaking of the code a secret led to there being a limited amount of detailed reporting about the battle. It simply got very little press coverage, although even if there had been more it would not have been as dramatic as the D-Day landing. But there was this concerted effort to sort of distract lots of people from the battle and certainly its details. The victory was reported, and it got attention at the time, a tremendous morale booster after the humiliation at Pearl Harbor.  But attention moved off it to other fronts, such as North Africa, with the lack of any immediate follow through.  And when the highly dramatic D-Day came along, well, it got the attention and still does, even if at some bottom line, Midway was more important than D-Day in bigger picture of the war.

Barkley Rosser

Haiti and Regis Debray

 I don't know if you saw the series on Haiti in last week's Times--pretty good-- "pretty, pretty good "as Larry David might say.

One section concerns the reaction of the French to Aristide's call for reparations. Who do you think led the so-called Commission that France formed to "consider" the question, and by consider I mean "absolutely refuse to consider," and then went to Haiti to not-so-subtly threaten Aristide with the fate of Allende if he didn't drop it? 

None other than Regis Debray--- the erstwhile champion  of Third World liberation struggles, Castro's biggest fan. 

And the epilogue: while he Aristide wasn't murdered, he was indeed removed from power by the US with French connivance.