Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Not Sure I’d Let This “Economist” Cook for Me

Mark Thoma emails me a gift calling Economics For Dummies the “economics of a dummy”. Ralph R. Reiland (the 3 R’s) says he is an associate professor of economics at Robert Morris University and a local restaurateur. I have no clue what the quality of instruction is at Robert Morris University but I sure hope the cooks at his restaurant are better at the culinary arts than Mr. Reiland is at understanding macroeconomics. He confused the aggregate demand effects of the 1964 tax cut supported by easy monetary policy with the supply-side insanity of Jude Wanniski and Arthur Laffer. He also wrote this old chestnut:

Additionally, inflation fell from double digits in 1980 to 1.9 percent in 1986, federal revenues increased by nearly half a trillion dollars over their 1980 levels by the end of Reagan's second term, the federal budget deficit fell from 6.3 percent of GDP in 1983 to 2.9 percent in 1989, and unemployment dropped from 7.1 percent in 1980 to 5.3 percent in 1989.

I would hope his students know that part of the reason inflation fell was that massive 1982 recession brought on by the Federal Reserve’s zeal to offset the aggregate demand effects from the 1981 tax cut. I would also hope his students are aware that real per capita Federal income taxes were barely higher in 1992 than they were in 1980. Can I suggest to Robert Morris that they not let such foolish ideas come before their students?

5 comments:

  1. RRR wrote: >inflation fell from double digits in 1980 to 1.9 percent in 1986<

    why did he choose 1986 as the end-point for this comparison? could it be because oil prices fell drastically in 1986? Also, could it be that the fall of unemployment below 7% in 1987, 1988, & 1989 going down to 5.5% caused increases in inflation? (CPI inflation went from 1.1% in 1986 to 5.6% in 1989.)

    death to all special pleading!
    Jim

    ReplyDelete
  2. A picture:

    All Urban Consumers - (CPI-U): U.S. city average: All items: 1982-84=100 - Quarterly Avgs, 1960-2007:
    http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.exe/tmp/4-240-213-171!20070925183914+1960+2007+3+1+1+500+1400++0

    ReplyDelete
  3. Juan,
    your picture didn't show up when I tried to look at that website.
    Jim

    ReplyDelete
  4. Jim, sorry, I may have entered it incorrectly. This one should be good and makes ~evident both sides of the postwar longwave as well as the fall in CPI-U rate with each recession, i.e. that countercyclic policies have prevented outright deflation but have not overcome deflationary pressures associated with contractions, or that the classic struggles to function within the modern.

    http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.exe/tmp/4-240-214-233!20070926142846+1960+2007+3+1+1+500+1400++0

    ReplyDelete
  5. Well, since the correct link is not working, I'll do it incorrectly though expect the chart to have relatively short lifespan.

    http://www.economagic.com/gif/g4024002140233162846364464892193078.gif

    ReplyDelete

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