Barkley says, "the V bounce is happening. France and Germany actually grew in the second quarter." Paul Krugman posted the following graph:
You don't see the V? Just tilt your head 45 degrees to the right and it comes into view. Happy Laventine's day Barkvey!
And there is nothing like spanking new instruments of mass decimation to make those green shoots really blossom:
ReplyDeletehttp://pogoprinciple.wordpress.com/2009/08/15/swords-into-plowshares-how-the-messiah-is-making-work-for-you-by-preparing-for-world-war-iii/
V? I'm trying to think of an appropriate diminutive for bounce.
ReplyDeleteJoe K.
The gutter-ball shudder?
ReplyDeletedid not say FRG bounced.
ReplyDeleteit was expected to fall and did not
Asian tigers were falling 10% in fall. Some up by that in 2nd quarter. V bounce there.
And my post said U for US.
But are there any clear indicators of a V-bounce in the core economies of the EU as of yet? That figure for Germany looks an awfully lot like a U.
ReplyDeleteA lot of Asian tiger economies had the same kind of protection this last September as the Philippines had during the Asian Financial Crisis ... having gone through a financial meltdown not that long ago, their finance sectors were not in Minsky's Ponzi position when the global financial crisis hit.
However, in the epicenters of the global financial crisis, in North America and the EU, the prospects for a V-shaped recovery would not seem to be as strong.
Joe K -
ReplyDeleteThe correct descriptor for that kind of bounce is "dead cat."
Bruce,
ReplyDeleteEurope is the worst off zone in the world, especially Eastern Europe. Thus, any cessation of the fall is good, and France and Germany are its largest economies. EU may not do a V or even a vigorous U, but I am looking at US and world economy. Sure, some places will be behind, but this news shows them doing better than expected, thus supporting possibility of more vigorous recovery elsewhere.
Jazzbumpa,
Well, the cover story in The Economist this week is about a Bounce in Asia with a nice big V on the cover, and the story says it is for real and provides a lot of reasons why. They came roaring out of both 1997 and 2001, and there are good reasons to think that they are doing so now. This looks like a live cat bounce (and I am in Seoul, South Korea at this moment, where the locals confirm it).
A link to the original prediction would be useful. Otherwise, it seems like a playground chanting exercise:
ReplyDeleteha, ha you said...
no I didn't...
yes you did...
didn't..
did...