Saturday, January 16, 2010

2009 In Dot Point

** The US ..needs to create 250,000 jobs a month to just absorb people coming into the workforce and they're not doing that.[1]

** The US economy is 70% consumption.[2]

** Only roughly 15 percent of U.S. imports come from China. [3]

** The broad U6 category of unemployment rose to 17.3pc in the US [4]

** 10% of households in the US are behind on their mortgages. 30%+ of homes are in negative equity. Roughly one in seven houses is in serious problems.[5]

** Right now [Dec 09] housing prices, adjusted for inflation, are roughly back to where they were at the beginning of the decade.[6]

** One million American families lost their homes in the fourth quarter of 2009. Another 2.4 million homes are expected to go in 2010. [7]

** It was a decade of zero gains for stocks, even without taking inflation into account. The Dow first topped 10,000 in 1999. "Last week [week to 27th December 2009] the market closed at 10,520."[8]

** The headline employment number for December 2009 [was expected to be] "slightly higher than that for December 1999, but only slightly."[9]

** Private-sector employment has actually declined [in the US]— the first decade on record in which that happened.[10]

** "if it isn't government, it isn't getting done" Very high levels of government debt are being financed by (i) investors concerned about the safety of other assets (ii) central banks buying bonds issued by the Treasury….like an internal transfer of printing money game that’s going on. [11]

** There is $4.2 trillion of corporate debt which has to be refinanced over the next five years. This poses a refinancing risk. [12]

** The risk of a 50-year old woman acquiring breast cancer rose to 12% in 2009 compared to 1% in 1975.[13]

REFERENCES


[1] Das is not good: post-crash stagnation. 9th December 2009
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2009/s2766725.htm 09/DEC/2009

[2] Das is not good: post-crash stagnation. 9th December 2009
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2009/s2766725.htm 09/DEC/2009

[3] The U.S.-China Economic Relationship: Separating Facts from Myths
Author: Steven Dunaway, Adjunct Senior Fellow for International Economics
November 16, 2009
http://www.cfr.org/publication/20757/uschina_economic_relationship.html

[4] America slides deeper into depression as Wall Street revels
December was the worst month for US unemployment since the Great Recession began.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Published: 6:35PM GMT 10 Jan 2010
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6962632/America-slides-deeper-into-depression-as-Wall-Street-revels.html

[5] Das is not good: post-crash stagnation. 9th December 2009
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2009/s2766725.htm 09/DEC/2009

[6] The Big Zero
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: December 27, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/28/opinion/28krugman.html?_r=1&ref=opinion

[7] America slides deeper into depression as Wall Street revels
December was the worst month for US unemployment since the Great Recession began.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Published: 6:35PM GMT 10 Jan 2010
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6962632/America-slides-deeper-into-depression-as-Wall-Street-revels.html

[8] The Big Zero
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: December 27, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/28/opinion/28krugman.html?_r=1&ref=opinion

[9] The Big Zero
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: December 27, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/28/opinion/28krugman.html?_r=1&ref=opinion

[10] The Big Zero
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: December 27, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/28/opinion/28krugman.html?_r=1&ref=opinion

[11] Das is not good: post-crash stagnation. 9th December 2009
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2009/s2766725.htm 09/DEC/2009

[12] Das is not good: post-crash stagnation. 9th December 2009
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2009/s2766725.htm 09/DEC/2009

[13] Cancer From the Kitchen?
By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF Op-Ed Columnist
Published: December 5, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/06/opinion/06kristof.html?_r=4

2 comments:

Ray said...

**Nations the world over have lost respect for the US, and everything possible is being done to right the imbalance of global wealth flows. (Dr. Stiglitz estimated in 2007 that for every dollar that the developed nations spend on aid, they receive a return of 3 dollars)

**Our health-care debate, and the international debate on AGW, have exposed the extent of negative externalities that are inherent to our culture. And our culture provides the model which is the basis for selling our "brand".

TheTrucker said...

How can an economy be judged based on how fat people get? When the "goodness" of the economy is based on the "consumption" of the aggregate then there will never be a truly good economy. Overconsumption causes illness.

"Political economy, considered as a branch of the science of statesman or legislator, proposes two distinct objects: first, to provide a plentiful revenue or subsistence for the people, or more properly to enable them to provide such a revenue or subsistence for themselves; and secondly, to supply the state or commonwealth with a revenue sufficient for the public services. It proposes to enrich both the people and the sovereign." Adam Smith

We are killing ourselves and our environment. The measure of "success" in "the economy" should be the amount of leisure afforded the vast majority. The labor force participation rate is actually a measure of how many family members must seek employment outside the home in order to make ends meet. Yet "economists" of all stripes laud the rise in this number.