As of Friday, the Emerson poll shows Cuccinelli only 2 points behind McAuliffe. I fear my piece on short term memory may be too real. A week ago, MacAuliffe would have massively beaten Cuccinelli. Now the Cooch may win. He is running ads hard on the failed rollout of the Obamacare exchanges, which has totally dominated the news all week. No more government shutdown by Republican Tea Partiers in the public mind, now it is Obama incompetence, and the Cooch is running it hard. That ACA will probably get straightened out eventually does not matter. What matters is the perception right now, and that is not good for the Dems.
I also fear that all those polls showing Mac so far ahead may induce complacency, while the Cooch's supporters are fired up and have momentum. This is going to be very close in the end.
Oh, and of course this trend means that in the AG race Obenshain is probably well in the lead now, although I have seen no polls in the last few days on that one. Heck, Jackson might even pull through, although that still seems unlikely.
Well, we should get back to posting about econ here, and nobody has commented once on my posts on this stuff, but the results are in, and I shall simply note that I have called it. Indeed, Mac beat the Cooch by a mere 2%, despite exit polls showing a much wider margin. It remains to be seen what explains that one.
ReplyDeleteAnd, by a much narrower margin my forecast of Obenshain winning the AG race has also come to pass, just announced a few minutes ago. So, I guess I rock on forecasting elections in VA, :-).
Oh yeah, and Dem Northam handily beat lunatic Jackson for Lt. Gov. I did at one point think that would be a closer race than the Gov one, but later changed my mind on that one.
ReplyDeleteBR, Are you saying the claims by the various pundits that the there was a constant, not narrowing, margin of support for McAuliffe are inaccurate (I guess you must).
ReplyDeleteBest, PJM
BTW, contrary to my last comment on an earlier post, the VA AG race remains up in the air undecided. Provisional ballots still being counted and ruled on, and then there will be recount. Way too close to call.
ReplyDeleteAs the counting continues for the VA AG race, Dem Mark Herring has moved into an unofficial 115 vote lead, but this is not over yet.
ReplyDelete