I have refused to forecast what two unpredictable leaders will do, and I shall continue that, other than to say I do not believe North Korea will denuclearize. Otherwise, well, the written deal was mostly aspirations while there seem to be disagreements about the verbal deals. DPRK says US has agreed to lift sanctions but US says no. As it is, at least it happened and there will be more talk, according to the paper agreement. As some famous person said (forget who), "Jaw jaw is better than war war."
So, let me make people aware of a useful source, which has been putting out things either ahead of regular media or even in disagreement with it recently. This is North Korean Economy Watch at https://www.nkeconwatch.com . Here are some tidbits.
They were the first to report that Chinese-DPRK trade began increasing after Kim Jong-in met with Moon Jae-in at the DMZ. "Maximum pressure" has been over for some time already.
A further sign that max pressure off is that there were stable prices in DPRK in the month of May, no noticeable shortages.
A group that Kim Jong-in may be paying attention to is the elite in Pyongyang who now have higher incomes and access to western goods. They would like more. The rest of the population does not matter to him.
ROK companies are hot to get into DPRK.
ROK has a plan to engage in infrastructure investment in DPRK, much of this for transportation, focusing on three corridors, all of them going north-south: one in the west going to China, one in the center focusing on between the two Koreas, one in the east focusing on reaching Russia at Vladivostock (I have seen commentators unaware that DPRK and Russia have a common border, if just a small one).
Finally, all the talk of DPRK opening up and liberalizing looks overblown, at least in the near term. Just before the summit a major meeting there involved strong statements that there will be no opening up or moves to more marketization, probably to dampen down expectations of most of the population given how much foreigners are talking about it. The ROK companies may need to wait awhile.
Oh, and as a further point, in recent global hacking competitions, North Korean teams have won.
Barkley Rosser
Remember that Carthage disarmed. Carthago delenda est. No doubt the North Koreans are aware of this episode in Roman history.
ReplyDeleteI'd guess the Chinese model will be adopted in North Korea: free enterprise with strict political controls.
ReplyDeleteMaybe a variation of it, possibly even more the Vietnamese variant. There are already a lot of private markets in DPRK, a lot more than most people realize, which have been effectively tolerated while not outright legalized. Of course the Chinese have been pushing them to move more in that direction. Whatever happens with Trump and these negotiations, it is highly likely DPRK will move more in that direction: tight political controls with a large still state-owned and controlled sector, but with more markets in agriculture and retail markets, and so on.
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