The original sin of the current catastrophe in Ukraine was the failure of the US and UK to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine when Putin's Russia seized control of Crimea as they promised to do in the Budapest Accord of 1994 when Ukraine gave up the third largest stock of nuclear weapons in the world. They are also now in violation of that Accord now by their weak effort to save Ukraine. They can and should enforce a no fly zone over Ukraine, which I believe they can enforce. This is not about NATO; it is about right and wrong. This is not boots on the ground; it is planes in the air.
Barkley Rosser
Please, may you and your family be well.
ReplyDeleteThese writings are heartfelt and compelling.
Planes in the air will lead to boots on the ground. Putin is going to keep pushing until one of two things happens: 1) The West rolls over (again) to play dead, or 2) He is defeated (stroke, palace coup, Russian forces wiped out). He plays the game he learned on the hard streets of Leningrad: kiss up or beat up. Any off-ramp now means weakness, and he seems supremely afraid of seeming weak in any way. If US intel is correct, he has been having tantrums lately, and he continues to isolate himself--he is deathly afraid of something. But all that distance--in his bunker, across from a table, socially and politically unaccountable--means he does not "feel" escalation except to pump up his fragile ego. If we put planes in the air, he will go after them or shell the Ukrainians that much more.
ReplyDeleteThis is already World War III.
Latest report has 40 mile convoy on way to Kyiv stalled out 15 miles away, running out of fuel. I have seen a report I am not sure I believe that a planned naval assault on Odessa got scuttled because of a ship mutiny.
ReplyDeleteKharkiv is apparently surrounded and getting pounded hard, but still holding on. I had read Kherson had fallen, but it is merely surrounded, and Mariupol has not even been surrounded. Only a couple of towns, not really any cities, have actually been conquered by the Russians, with probably the most important Berdyansk several days ago, a port just over the line of control from the Donetsk PR.
It looks like the Russian forces are really bogged down, although we shall have to wait and see. But if things keep going like this, this whole thing might be over quite soon, although somebody will need to remove Putin from power in Moscow.
The Russian military is turning to their tried-and-true strategy: shell everything into oblivion, war crimes be damned. (Speaking of which...yet another interesting development, ICC and ICJ get involved.) This is not over unless they remove Putin.
ReplyDeleteAnd on that front, it is time to watch what is going on inside Russia. Protests persist despite arrests. Many Russians are scared, and there are many who are like Trump supporters (i.e. fascists). (I know a few from each group.) Professionals are trying to flee (and I know a few of these as well). There are rumors of upcoming martial law to complement the crack-down on letting foreign investors sell Russian assets or to take much money out of the country. The propaganda machine is in full swing: from a new proposed law punishing people 15 years in prison for "fake news" about the "special operation," to articles on what will happen to Ukraine (Komsomolskaia pravda, and the three are absorption, cutting Ukraine into three pieces, or puppet regime), to closing down Echo Moskvy (still available on youtube) and TV Rain.
The regime is in panic mode, as is the population. The war in Ukraine will drag on and the Russian military, ineffective as it has been, can still bomb the bejesus out of civilian targets, and it will. The Russian economy will continue to condense until it becomes an economic black hole that no longer answers to the usual laws of economics. And we need to watch the elite. Some nervousness is appearing: some oligarchs critical of the war and calling for negotiations at the moment. When the Russian state can't pay its police, what happens then?