It seems that the two recent independence referenda have largely collapsed. One was in Iraqi Kurdistan, with President Massound Barzani having it done with the eye that it would give him leverage in negotiations with the Iraqi central government. That did not work, with the referendum triggering the central government to move to seize control of the oil producing areas the Kurds had controlled and quite a bit of other territory they had controlled, especially Kirkuk. Barzani had not stepped down two years ago when he was supposed to. Two days ago he announced he will step down from his position. Looks like this is basically over.
Then we have Puigdemont, the prime minister of Catalunya/Catalonia. He also put in place a probably badly timed and unwise independence referendum. This was followed up on the weekend by the Catalan parliament voting for independence, even though many polls suggest a majority do not support independence (although a solid majority voted for the independence referendum, with a a low turnout). Now the central government has cancelled the Catalan government and imposed direct central rule. Puigdemont has fled to the Flemish part of Belgium where he has been given asylum. So, it looks like this independence referendum has also ended up as a disaster.
I note that in my earlier posts I expressed more sympathy with the Kurdish declaration, even as it looked like very bad timing for it. I had and have much less sympathy with the Catalan one given the level of autonomy they have over so many areas, with the main effect being a selfish economic result that would have them no longer sending money to poorer parts of Spain. The amount of self-righteousness on their part in regard to this I find pretty indefensible. The Kurds have suffered far more at the hands of those who rule them than have the Catalans, even accounting for the old Franco period when indeed the Catalans did suffer vicious repression, although I do not support violence on the part of the Spanish central government to impose their direct control.
Barkley Rosser
7 comments:
Well done, though what was the self-betrayal of the Kurds or betrayal by the Kurdish leaders could be useful to further explain.
A.,
I do not think I spoke of "self-betrayal of the Kurds." Barzani should have stepped down two years ago when he was supposed to and let there be an election. But he did not. He had come under increasing criticism and the economy had been weakening. He pushed the referendum pretty obviously as a way to shore up his weakening political position, but instead it pushed him over the edge and now he is going out.
Barzani should have stepped down two years ago when he was supposed to and let there be an election. But he did not....
[ Betrayal of the Kurds. ]
BTW, for the record, again, I oppose the central Spanish government using violence to suppress the Catalan independence movement. If they continue to do that, which they did during the referendum, that will end up in and of itself justifying the independence movement. Indeed, currently that is now the big argument being made by independence supporters, that central government violence justifies their movement, and if enough violence happens it just might.
What I have to do is find out what the UN stance is on national independence or separatist movements. I would guess the UN stance is opposed, but that is a guess.
Anonymous,
I do not think the UN has a position on such movements. Many members of the UN have become independent by means that were not necessarily strictly legal according to the nations that previously ruled them. However, whatever the methods, they came to be recognized by other nations for one reason or another, the variety of cases out there is enormous. For Catalunya, for better or worse, the nations they hoped and thought would support them in the EU have not, with the EU having its own set of conditions and restrictions, with those involving essentially that if the would be nation is part of a democratically run member of the EU, then the wannabe independent nation needs to obey the rules of the nation it is trying to secede from. Scotland did that, with the UK granting the right to have a referendum, which failed. Spain has not granted that right, and the EU has supported Spain, as has pretty much the rest of the world.
I think there are/were a lot of Catalonians who were living in a delusionary world regarding this, both in terms of the economic and the political implications. They are now learning a hard lesson. But I do not think either side can make any appeal to the UN at all.
As far as I can find your analysis is completely correct.
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