Friday, March 20, 2020

The Hammer and the Dance

Ordinarily, I would give some sort of summary of the Big Idea I am referencing. In this case, I will link to the essay, Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time, by Tomas Pueyo and say you must read it to get what I am talking about. O.K., in simplest terms, Pueyo outlines what is likely to happen with a do-nothing strategy, a mitigation strategy and a third strategy that he calls the "hammer and the dance."

Long story short: mitigation won't cut it.

This calls for a climate change paradigm check. The discourse has been all about mitigation for three decades and here we are in 2020 emitting -- up to a moment ago -- more carbon dioxide than ever. Here's the good news: our response to Covid-19 is going to cut our carbon dioxide emissions -- proving we can do it! How? By setting a target for gradual reduction of carbon dioxide emissions? Hell no! By locking down the fucking system.

Long story short: mitigation hasn't cut it for climate change.

Maybe it's time to go "hammer and dance" with fossil fuels. PULL THE PLUG on all non-essential fossil fuel consumption and only resume the associated economic activities when they can be carried out by solar or wind power.


ken melvin said...

We must get off fossil fuels; there's no options. Has to be done. Should begin immediately. The biggest (only?) impediment is the Fossil Fuel Industry, or more specifically, the owners of the wealth tied up in Oil, Gas, and Coal reserves. They are more than willing to sacrifice the planet in order to preserve the wealth these reserves represent. Too bad about Coal.

One option is that recently witnessed with the ARAMCO IPO; the Saudis divested, took the cash, while they still could, and ran.

Another is for governments to buy them out; which they may well do giving the power of wealth (capital) in capitalistic economies.

The third for the people to exercise democracy, tell them to go screw, and instead spend the $trillions needed get off Fossil Fuels. Think Manhattan, think anything and everything, but get started and get it done

Note: All this said in the face of this Collision of Pandemic and Globalization and what may be the start of a second Great Depression, or worse.

Anonymous said...

The essay is superb, but I have no idea and rather resent the mixing of dealing with COVID-19 and dealing with climate change. COVID-19 is the immediate problem and nothing is more important for now and China shows us how the outbreak can be properly dealt with:

March 21, 2020

Hubei reports zero new COVID-19 cases for third day

Central China's Hubei Province, the epicenter of the novel coronavirus in the country, reported zero new infections for the third straight day. According to the provincial health commission, seven new deaths were recorded as of midnight on Friday.

On the same day, 561 patients were discharged from hospitals in the province.

Hubei-Wuhan new cases

Chinese mainland recovered and new cases

Chinese mainland total remaining cases

Anonymous said...

China has controlled the outbreak, and that means other countries by all working together can as well:

March 21, 2020

COVID-19: 41 new cases, 7 more deaths reported on Chinese mainland

A total of 41 new COVID-19 cases, all of them imported from abroad, and 7 more deaths were confirmed on the Chinese mainland as of Friday midnight, according to China's National Health Commission.

The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 81,008, while the cumulative death toll is now at 3,255.

On the same day, Chinese health authorities said 590 patients were discharged from hospitals, bringing the total number of recovered cases to 71,740.

The latest numbers of confirmed cases in Hong Kong and Macao special administrative regions and Taiwan are as follows:

Hong Kong: 256 (98 recovered, 4 dead)

Macao: 17 (10 recovered)

Taiwan: 135 (26 recovered, 2 dead)

Hubei-Wuhan new cases

Chinese mainland recovered and new cases

Chinese mainland total remaining cases

Anonymous said...

Though I am grateful for this post by Sandwichman, I am very, very frightened now and not at all interested in climate change now. The only problem I care about now is COVID-19.

Anonymous said...

March 21, 2020

WHO chief urges world to draw inspiration from Wuhan in COVID-19 fight

The World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom delivers his address in Geneva, Switzerland, on Friday regarding the COVID-19 outbreak.

The World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom has urged the rest of the world to draw inspiration from Wuhan in the fight against COVID-19.

Speaking at the organization's press briefing on Friday, Tedros said the success achieved by the Chinese city was proof that the world can be victorious over COVID-19.

"Wuhan provides hope for the rest of the world that even the most serious situation can be turned around. We must exercise caution. The situation can be worse but the experience of cities and countries that have pushed back this virus give hope and courage to the rest of the world. Everyday, we are learning more about the virus and the diseases it causes," he said.

Tedros' remarks come as central China's Hubei Province reported no new COVID-19 cases for the second consecutive day....

Anonymous said...

I am not alone, my family and friends are frightened and looking for hope and however concerned they may have been about the climate right now they are concerned about being well and living for another few months. Climate change can wait, I want to stay healthy and live through these coming months and I actually resent mixing the urgency of the problems. said...

All the best, A. You and I have had our fisticuffs here and there over the years, but I wish you and your family and friends all the best.

I have some serious matters I shall post on here, but not this evening. Too tired and about to calll it for the evening. Best to all.

Anonymous said...

Barkley Rosser:

I wish you and your family and friends all the best....

[ I wish you well and all those who are part of this wonderful blog well. I should have been immediately and repeatedly wishing all those who are part of the blog well, and will do so from now on.

Please be well, all. ]

Anonymous said...

Please be well all those who are part of this wonderful blog. Please be well, all.

Please be careful as I am doing and comforting to those about you as I hope I am doing and want to do.

My hope, now, which I have tried to share, rests on the way in which China and several other countries have approached COVID-19. I have tried to share this express hope. China has controlled the fearsome outbreak and offers a model for and assistance to other countries.

As I wrote on this blog, I have known of the identifying of a small cluster of seemingly related pneumonia cases in the city of Wuhan since the end of December 2019 and have followed events in China and recorded news about what was quickly identified by Chinese researchers as "COVID-19" each day since. * What I learned from the end of December on from China has been about the steadily increasing national efforts made to deal with COVID-19 and the remarkably hopeful control that has been gained over the outbreak.

* Please look to cgtn and xinhuanet.

Anonymous said...

The point about "The Hammer and the Dance" is the need for us to look to the models of countries that have coped with COVID-19 in remarkably curative ways. Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Japan, Laos, Mongolia. Israel seems like a model of preparedness, hopefully Malaysia and Thailand. Then there is, China which has gained control of COVID-19 and which is getting quickly back to normal. China was horridly criticized by Human Rights Watch when increasingly containing the virus to Hubei Province and especially Wuhan, but HRW was horribly wrong. What China has been doing should be as much a model as different national conditions make possible, but COVID-19 was contained in China and can be so in other countries.

Anonymous said...

March 14, 2020

China's success in controlling COVID-19 an "inspiring message" for world: Israeli expert
China, which is the most severely hit country by the virus, has almost succeeded in stopping the epidemic nearly two months after its outbreak, says a renowned Israeli medical expert.

JERUSALEM -- China's success in controlling the spread of COVID-19, or novel coronavirus, is an "inspiring message" for the rest of world, a renowned Israeli medical expert told Xinhua in a recent interview.

Arnon Afek, deputy director general of Sheba Medical Center in Israel, noted that China, which is the most severely hit country by the virus, has almost succeeded in stopping the epidemic nearly two months after its outbreak.

"We do hope that this message can come to the rest of the world and tell us how we should react in such a situation," said Afek, who was director general of the Israeli Ministry of Health before taking the position in the Israeli largest hospital.

Sheba Medical Center, located in Tel Hashomer in central Israel, is the first hospital in the country to accept coronavirus-exposed patients.

A total of 34 Israelis tested positive for COVID-19 on Friday, bringing the total number of confirmed cases in the country to 143.

"We want to learn (from China) how to treat them, how to do the isolation properly, and how to put up the protective garments as safely as it can be done," Afek said.

He lauded China for acting quickly to contain the spread of COVID-19, a viral respiratory disease unknown before the end of 2019.

China quickly quarantined people at the center of the outbreak, namely Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei province, and built two large hospitals "in a speed that I don't think any other country in the world could achieve," Afek noted.

Even the the World Health Organization praised the way the Chinese people dealt with the epidemic, he said.

"It's important that all the countries will learn from what the Chinese did," he said.

Talking about the situation in Israel, Afek said that the number of COVID-19-infected patients will increase in the coming days or weeks, but the country "will be able to control the situation."

As part of the efforts to contain the spread of the virus, Israel has imposed strict travel restrictions, suspended schools, and limited size of public gatherings.

Afek mentioned that the Sheba Medical Center has maintained a close relationship with some hospitals in China. He also said that he has been reading the papers published by Chinese scientists and physicians on the epidemic.

"We are learning all the time," he said. "Chinese scientists and physicians publish a lot of papers in the international media, which is very constructive for us because we can learn from the Chinese experience."

"We know today that quick response and taking the right measures is the right way," he said.

Sheba Medical Center has built the COVID-19 treatment ward outside of the main hospital area, to keep a safe distance from other patients. Other hospitals in Israel have visited the center to learn about the treatment of the patients infected by the novel coronavirus....

Anonymous said...

March 18, 2020

Why Singapore’s coronavirus response worked – and what we can all learn
Dale Fisher

Singapore’s response to the coronavirus has been held up by many around the world as a model. As of this week, the country has had 266 total cases (with zero deaths), and its infection rate is much slower than the rest of the world.

The first thing that helped with its response was it was ready before the outbreak even occurred because of the SARS outbreak of 2002-03.

It was aware then that its infrastructure wasn’t ready for an outbreak of this kind. So, in the years since, isolation hospitals were built, more negative pressure rooms were created and legislation was put in place.

Then, on December 31, when the world first became aware of coronavirus in China, Singapore started to get prepared. By the time the World Health Organisation declared a public health emergency at the end of January, it was ready....

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