Monday, September 21, 2020

The "Trump Effect" On Happiness

 In a column in yesterday's Washington Post, Dana Milbank has written on "Trump has made our lives worse. Here's the proof."  He labels this apparent outcome the "Trump Effect."

Since 1972 the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) at the University of Chicago has annually studied the nation's mood. They survey people to find out how they identify their level of happiness. As of this summer an all time record low of 14% declared themselves "very happy." This compares with 29% saying that at the lowest point after the 2008 financial crisis. OTOH, fully 36% declared themselves to be "satisfied" with their financial situation and a record low expressed dissatisfaction, the survey taken at a time when expanded unemployment benefits were still in effect.  But Milbank declared that this amounted to a disjuncture between peoples' economic conditions and declared happiness, with this contradicting, or at least failing to support, a longstanding finding from happiness surveys in the past.

This may be an overstated conclusion. Milbank did not report on it, but studies over the years have found that higher income people tend to declare themselves to be happier than lower income people. This may still hold.  In the US this finding has been part of the famous "Easterlin Paradox," that higher income people report higher levels of life satisfaction (or happiness) at any given point in time while over time as national income rises, happiness levels do not rise. Indeed, another data source with a longer time horizon on this found US national happiness to have gradually declined since 1957. It must be noted that this finding of declining national happiness as national income rises does not show up in al nations, although it has been observed in several others besides the US, leading to much controversy and debate. Richard Easterlin himself (still alive well into his 90s) has emphasized the impact of distribution of income and perceived economic security, with peoples' happiness depending on how they compare themselves with others.  So even though income rose rapidly, the ending of old age pensions and rising income inequality led happiness levels in China to decline from around 1990 to around 2004, although they have increased again since as pensions were extended to rural areas.

In any case, even as there seems to have been a drift over time downwards in US happiness levels even as national income has risen, Milbank sees the NORC time series as exhibiting a specifically identifiable "Trump Effect."  In 2017, the first year of his presidency, 21 states exhibited a decline in happiness while not a single one showed an increase.  Apparently there was a correlation with voting, with most of the clearly declining states being ones that did not support Trump. But Milbank notes that there seems to have been no offset of an increase in happiness in states that did support him. While views of "pleasure in activities and positive energy from friends, family, and leaders" were stable from 2014 through 2016, but fell noticeably in 2017 and have stayed down since.

Other studies have found similar results, with unsurprisingly things worsening during the pandemic. The American Psychological Association found in 2017 that two thirds of the US population, including a majority of Republicans, were "stressed about the future of the nation." This rose to 83% this year, with 66% declaring that the government was mismanaging the pandemic. According to Rachel Garfield of the Kaiser Family Foundation, an August poll found 53% of the population say that their "mental health" has been "hurt," with rising problems regarding sleeping, eating, and alcohol and drug abuse.  Those reporting "depressive symptoms" quadrupled to 40% during the pandemic.

It is unsurprising that things would get worse during the pandemic, but Milbank notes they had already worsened prior to the pandemic starting even while the economy was still getting better on most fronts.  That Trump is perceived to have handled the pandemic more poorly than leaders in nearly every other nation certainly adds to the idea that he has especially aggravated the unhappiness problem in America, exacerbating the apparent "Trump Effect" that had already been going on.  Milbank notes Trump administration official Michael Caputo taking a leave of absence this past week due to his high "stress level" and declares that if Trump is reelected "Surely four more years would cause the losing of the American mind." There really is little to add to this foreboding forecast, although getting the pandemic back under control might mitigate this somewhat, assuming that happens.

Barkley Rosser  

35 comments:

Fred C. Dobbs said...

Was That Ride on the Trump Train Worth It?

NY Times - September 21

Lurching through his presidency with equal parts venality and incompetence, Donald Trump gives little thought to the chaos he leaves in his wake. Little wonder that his tenure has proved hazardous not only for his adversaries and the hapless masses subject to his feeble leadership, but for his allies and enablers as well.

From Paul Manafort’s prison sentence to Jerry Falwell Jr.’s fall from grace, from Jeff Sessions’s shattered career to the Republican Party’s wounded relationship with suburban white women, the price of cuddling with the president — or simply hovering on the fringes of Trumpworld — has proved steep. As voters ponder whether to grant Mr. Trump another four years, it seems appropriate to attempt at least a partial accounting of the devastation he has wrought upon his own team thus far.

Some of the most obvious casualties are those who got tangled in the special counsel’s Russia investigation and ended up with criminal records or facing charges. These include not only people like Michael Cohen and George Papadopoulos, who had no meaningful profile beyond Trumpworld, but also veteran establishment players such as Mr. Manafort, the lobbyist and former Trump campaign chairman; his business partner Rick Gates, a former Trump deputy campaign manager; Roger Stone, a longtime Trump crony and campaign adviser; and Gen. Michael Flynn, the president’s first national security adviser.

Moving from criminality to more mundane rot, Mr. Trump’s administration has been distinguished by a dazzling array of toadies, many of whom have left under clouds of scandal. Scott Pruitt, the former Environmental Protection Agency administrator, may be the most pathetic, having resigned after a blizzard of tacky misbehavior that ranged from using taxpayer money to buy himself a $43,000 phone booth to dispatching an aide to shop for his favorite skin cream.

Still, it would be unfair to single him out. Ryan Zinke stepped down as interior secretary after racking up at least 15 ethics inquiries, including allegations of misusing taxpayer funds and violating the Hatch Act. Brock Long, who resigned as head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, got in trouble for misusing government vehicles.

Tom Price left his position as secretary of Health and Human Services after reports of his fondness for private jet travel. David Shulkin, the former secretary of veterans affairs, was called out by his department’s inspector general for wasting taxpayer money during an official trip to Europe and inappropriately accepting tickets to Wimbledon. ...

Fred C. Dobbs said...

The drama grinds on. The postmaster general, Louis DeJoy, a Republican fund-raiser, stands accused of working to destroy the Postal Service to aid Mr. Trump’s re-election. He’s also facing allegations of violating campaign finance law repeatedly over the past decade.

Mr. Sessions was ousted as attorney general after months of Mr. Trump railing about his failure to shield the president from the Russia inquiry. When he tried to win back his old Senate seat in Alabama this year, Mr. Sessions found that Republican voters had soured on him, leading to a thumping in the primary.

Alexander Acosta resigned as secretary of labor after controversy erupted over an old plea deal he cut with Jeffrey Epstein, the sexual predator who also happened to be chummy with Mr. Trump.

Paul Ryan, the former House speaker, had his dash up the career ladder disrupted. Under Mr. Trump, Mr. Ryan oversaw an explosion of the national debt, ruining his image as a fiscally disciplined wonderwonk. He was also constantly beaten up by Mr. Trump, even as he indulged the president’s worst impulses. Rather than wait around for his party to get trounced in the midterms, Mr. Ryan announced in April 2018 that he would not run again.

The carnage stretches beyond the government. The National Rifle Association and its longtime frontman, Wayne LaPierre, spent truckloads of cash getting Mr. Trump elected in 2016. In return? The group has spent the Trump era rent by infighting and plagued by possibly existential legal and financial troubles. ...

Anonymous said...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/21/opinion/trump-supreme-court-health-care.html

September 21, 2020

Voting G.O.P. Means Voting Against Health Care
The death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg has only raised the stakes.
By Paul Krugman

If you or someone you care about are among the more than 50 million Americans suffering from pre-existing medical conditions, you should be aware that the stakes in this year’s election go beyond abstract things like, say, the survival of American democracy. They’re also personal. If Donald Trump is re-elected, you will lose the protection you’ve had since the Affordable Care Act went into effect almost seven years ago.

The death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg has made this even more obvious. In fact, it’s now possible that coverage of pre-existing conditions will be stripped away even if Trump loses to Joe Biden, unless Democrats also take the Senate and are prepared to play serious hardball. But health care was always on the line.

Now, Trump denies this; like almost every other politician in his party, he keeps insisting that he has a plan to protect Americans with pre-existing conditions. But he and they are lying. And no, that’s not too strong a term.

On Trump: In early August he promised that he would soon release a great health care plan to replace Obamacare, probably by the end of the month. We’ve heard nothing since, which isn’t surprising, since he has made and broken similar promises many times.

It’s safe to assume that there was never any basis for these promises; there is not now and has never been a secret skunk works in the executive branch devising a brilliant new health plan.

Among other things, Trump administration officials have been too busy botching their response to the coronavirus. Did I mention that, as we pass the 200,000 deaths mark, cases appear to be rising again?

But we would know that Republicans are lying about pre-existing conditions even if Trump hadn’t established such a remarkable record of serial dishonesty. For the fundamental logic of health policy says that if you want to protect pre-existing conditions, you either have to have the government provide health insurance directly, as it does with Medicare and Medicaid, or use a combination of strict regulation and subsidies to induce private insurers to offer coverage.

And if you do try to rely on private insurers, the necessary system of regulation and subsidies will, inevitably, look a lot like Obamacare.

To protect people with pre-existing conditions, you must prevent insurers from discriminating based on medical history — which includes imposing minimum standards, so that they can’t offer cheap, minimalist plans that appeal only to the healthy while charging exorbitant premiums on plans that help those who really need care.

You also need to induce healthy people to sign up for coverage, which means providing financial incentives to do so — especially generous subsidies to working-class adults....

Anonymous said...

September 21, 2020

Coronavirus

US

Cases   ( 7,044,280)
Deaths   ( 204,459)

Deaths per million ( 617)

[ What bothers me immensely is that the disastrous outcome of the spread of the coronavirus in the United States is not being looked at as failures on many levels of our public health structure. The failures are beyond presidential leadership, but the focus on that mis-leadership has been almost exclusive of mis-leadership from hospitals to diagnostic centers to nursing homes...

We are not hearing talk of universal health insurance even now. How can this be? ]

Anonymous said...

https://cepr.net/are-red-state-governors-getting-their-people-killed-to-help-donald-trumps-re-election-chances/

September 21, 2020

Are Red State Governors Getting Their People Killed to Help Donald Trump’s Re-election Chances?
By Dean Baker

This is an incredibly ghoulish question, that it would be absurd to ask in normal times. But these are not normal times. We know Donald Trump has staffed the top levels of his administration with people who unhesitatingly put Donald Trump’s political prospects above the well-being of the people. It is certainly plausible that Republican governors have similar priorities.

A simple test for the governors is to look at their positive test rates for the coronavirus. Test rates are a good measure of how serious the governors are in trying to bring the pandemic under control. While they can take measures to limit the actual spread, such as longer and stronger lockdowns and mask requirements, many factors determining the spread are outside their control.

For example, New York, New Jersey, and other states in the Northeast were hard hit early because they had a large number of international travelers. More recently, North Dakota has seen a huge spike in infections because Kristi Noem, the governor of neighboring South Dakota, thought it was clever to have a huge week-long motorcycle rally in the middle of a pandemic.

However, positive rates are largely under the control of the state. If the governor makes more of an effort to find positive cases, the state will have a lower positive rate. In states with high positive rates, governors have been less concerned about tracking the spread of the pandemic.

This is a matter of life and death for tens of thousands of people, since if a person knows they are infected, they can take steps to protect their co-workers, friends, and family. If they don’t know, they will likely get many of these people infected as well.

It is not hard to imagine that Republican governors would deliberately limit testing so that they find fewer cases. Donald Trump explicitly said at a campaign rally that he told his staff to “slow the testing down.” He subsequently insisted that he was not joking.

In this context, it is perfectly reasonable to ask whether there is evidence that Republican governors have decided to deliberately slow testing, knowing that it will mean that more people in their states get sick and die, just so that Donald Trump will have fewer reported cases.

Here is the story. The chart shows the ten states with the highest positive rates and the ten states with the lowest rates. (The data are seven-day averages, given for September 20th, by the John Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center.)  

[ https://cepr.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Book2_29991_image001-1024x545.png ]

Nine of the ten states with the highest positive rates have Republican governors....

Anonymous said...

That should be Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center.

Anonymous said...

For Fred Dobbs:

Passage from essay: Recently I came across a quote attributed to FDR...

Response by Mr. Dobbs: That was 75 years ago, more even. This is now. We can do better.

[ Please know, there is no such quote found on the Internet and I am sure there is no such quote by Franklin Roosevelt to be found. Please do not be misled. Please ask that the attribution to FDR be removed from the essay. Franklin Roosevelt needs no apology. ]

Anonymous said...

For Fred Dobbs:

Here is the essay with the supposed quote and mistaken attribution to which you responded:

https://angrybearblog.com/2020/09/the-us-is-a-white-christian-country-everyone-else-is-here-on-sufferance.html

Please do ask for the quote attribution to be removed and correct the needless apology for FDR you inadvertently made.

Anonymous said...

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/21/us/covid-schools.html

September 21, 2020

What We Know About Coronavirus Cases in K-12 Schools So Far
By Yuriria Avila, Weiyi Cai, Barbara Harvey, Juliette Love, Eleanor Lutz, Alex Leeds Matthews and Kate Taylor

Schools are not islands, and so it was inevitable that when students and teachers returned this fall to classrooms, coronavirus cases would follow them.

But more than a month after the first school districts welcomed students back for in-person instruction, it is nearly impossible to tally a precise figure of how many cases have been identified in schools.

There is no federal effort to monitor coronavirus cases in schools, and reporting by school districts is uneven. One independent effort has counted more than 21,000 cases this school year.

While some districts regularly disclose their active cases, others have cited privacy concerns to withhold information, a move that has frustrated parents, educators and public health experts trying to assess the risk of exposure in schools and the potential impact on the larger community. Eleven states do not publish information on school cases, leaving many of the nation’s students and parents in the dark....

Anonymous said...

September 21, 2020

Coronavirus

US

Cases ( 7,046,216)
Deaths ( 204,506)

India

Cases ( 5,560,105)
Deaths ( 88,965)

Mexico

Cases ( 697,663)
Deaths ( 73,493)

France

Cases ( 458,061)
Deaths ( 31,338)

UK

Cases ( 398,625)
Deaths ( 41,788)

Germany

Cases ( 275,551)
Deaths ( 9,481)

Canada

Cases ( 145,415)
Deaths ( 9,228)

China

Cases ( 85,291)
Deaths ( 4,634)

Anonymous said...

September 21, 2020

Coronavirus   (Deaths per million)

US   ( 617)
UK   ( 615)
Mexico   ( 569)
France   ( 480)

Canada   ( 244)
Germany   ( 113)
India   ( 64)
China   ( 3)

Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 10.5%, 6.8% and 10.5% for the United Kingdom, France and Mexico respectively.  Why these ratios are still so high, though they have been even higher, needs to be examined.

Anonymous said...

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-22/Chinese-mainland-reports-6-new-COVID-19-cases-all-form-overseas-TZ5F5HgS7C/index.html

September 21, 2020

Chinese mainland reports 6 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths

The Chinese mainland registered 6 new COVID-19 cases on Monday, all from overseas, the National Health Commission said on Tuesday.

This is the 37th consecutive day without domestic transmissions on the Chinese mainland. No deaths from the disease were reported while 13 patients were discharged from hospitals.

The total number of confirmed cases stands at 85,297 and the death toll at 4,634 on the Chinese mainland, while 391 asymptomatic patients are under medical observation.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-06/Chinese-mainland-reports-10-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-Tyvqw9qrW8/img/2cb21af19b41483cb23b64805c2108ac/2cb21af19b41483cb23b64805c2108ac.jpeg

Chinese mainland new imported cases

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-22/Chinese-mainland-reports-6-new-COVID-19-cases-all-form-overseas-TZ5F5HgS7C/img/7fa716b64ebd4724939ed91b2308a536/7fa716b64ebd4724939ed91b2308a536.jpeg

Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-22/Chinese-mainland-reports-6-new-COVID-19-cases-all-form-overseas-TZ5F5HgS7C/img/14d390e8c0f74398ad304f5a7e594e87/14d390e8c0f74398ad304f5a7e594e87.jpeg

Anonymous said...

There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since May 17.  There has been no community or domestic coronavirus case for 37 days.  Since June began there have been only 2 limited community clusters of infections, in Beijing and Urumqi in Xinjiang, both of which were contained with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, and both outbreaks ended in a few weeks.  Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine.  Asymptomatic cases are all quarantined.

The flow of imported cases to China is low, but has been persistent.  There are as a result 166 active imported coronavirus cases on the Chinese mainland, but of which only 4 cases are classed as serious or critical.

Anonymous said...

For Fred Dobbs:

Here is the essay with the supposed quote and mistaken attribution to which you responded:

https://angrybearblog.com/2020/09/the-us-is-a-white-christian-country-everyone-else-is-here-on-sufferance.html

Please do ask for the quote attribution to be removed and correct the needless apology for FDR you inadvertently made.

[ The attribution of the supposed quote is mistaken. I would hope any reader would have the decency and dignity to understand that. ]

Fred C. Dobbs said...

FACING UP TO FDR’S RACISM

http://new.wymaninstitute.org/2019/07/facing-up-to-fdrs-racism/

The only immigrants who should be admitted to the United States are those who have “blood of the right sort.” Immigration should be severely restricted for “a good many years to come,” until the United States is able to “digest” those who have already been admitted.

One need look no further than today’s headlines to find an American political leader expressing such sentiments. But they can also be found in statements made by Franklin D. Roosevelt, five years after he ran as the Democratic nominee for vice-president, and less than eight before he was elected president. …

(And various earlier presidents were slave-holders.

We are better now than we were back then.

We still have a long way to go.)

Anonymous said...

For Fred Dobbs:

I know that you are far more knowledgeable than I could ever be and I regret having interfered and will never do so again, but since I did interfere I was correct. There is no such quote that has been attributed to Franklin Roosevelt.

The quote attributed to Franklin Roosevelt was never written or spoken by Roosevelt. There is no such quote reported from Roosevelt. The attribution should then be removed.

As for all else, you are always right.

Anonymous said...

For Fred Dobbs:

There is no such quote that has been attributed to Franklin Roosevelt. Fool that I am, I was correct in this lonely instance. Beyond the matter of this quote, you are ever so much more knowledgeable than I could ever hope to be and I will always rely on your teaching.

I am however correct in this matter, of course.

Anonymous said...

September 22, 2020

Coronavirus

US

Cases   ( 7,058,674)
Deaths   ( 204,887)

What the American data should tell is that there are serious public health weaknesses, beyond a weakness in political leadership, and these public health weaknesses or problems need to be studied and methodically addressed.  However, there seems remarkably little interest in going beyond faulting leadership.

There is seemingly no interest in even looking to the need for universal health care insurance in the wake of such an epidemic.

Anonymous said...

September 22, 2020

Coronavirus

US

Cases   ( 7,065,934)
Deaths   ( 205,064)

Anonymous said...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/09/22/covid-funds-pentagon/

September 22, 2020

Pentagon used taxpayer money meant for masks and swabs to make jet engine parts and body armor
Shortly after Congress passed the Cares Act, the Pentagon began directing pandemic-related money to defense contractors.
By Aaron Gregg and Yeganeh Torbati - Washington Post
A $1 billion fund Congress gave the Pentagon in March to build up the country’s supplies of medical equipment has instead been mostly funneled to defense contractors and used to make things such as jet engine parts, body armor and dress uniforms.

The change illustrates how one taxpayer-backed effort to battle the novel coronavirus, which has killed about 200,000 Americans, was instead diverted toward patching up long-standing perceived gaps in military supplies....

Anonymous said...

For Fred Dobbs:

https://angrybearblog.com/2020/09/the-us-is-a-white-christian-country-everyone-else-is-here-on-sufferance.html

“The US is a white Christian country....”

These words, these supposed quoted words, alone, were never written nor reported as spoken by Franklin Roosevelt.

“The US is a white Christian country. Everyone else is here on sufferance”

There is no such written or spoken quote from Franklin Roosevelt.

[ Use of these false words, use of the false quote, is beyond regrettable. ]

Anonymous said...

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-75th-session-united-nations-general-assembly/

September 22, 2020

Remarks by President Trump to the 75th Session of the United Nations General Assembly
________________________________
________________________________

The White House

PRESIDENT TRUMP: It is my profound honor to address the United Nations General Assembly.

Seventy-five years after the end of World War II and the founding of the United Nations, we are once again engaged in a great global struggle. We have waged a fierce battle against the invisible enemy — the China virus — which has claimed countless lives in 188 countries.

In the United States, we launched the most aggressive mobilization since the Second World War. We rapidly produced a record supply of ventilators, creating a surplus that allowed us to share them with friends and partners all around the globe. We pioneered life-saving treatments, reducing our fatality rate 85 percent since April.

Thanks to our efforts, three vaccines are in the final stage of clinical trials. We are mass-producing them in advance so they can be delivered immediately upon arrival.

We will distribute a vaccine, we will defeat the virus, we will end the pandemic, and we will enter a new era of unprecedented prosperity, cooperation, and peace.

As we pursue this bright future, we must hold accountable the nation which unleashed this plague onto the world: China.

In the earliest days of the virus, China locked down travel domestically while allowing flights to leave China and infect the world. China condemned my travel ban on their country, even as they cancelled domestic flights and locked citizens in their homes.

The Chinese government and the World Health Organization — which is virtually controlled by China — falsely declared that there was no evidence of human-to-human transmission. Later, they falsely said people without symptoms would not spread the disease.

The United Nations must hold China accountable for their actions....

Anonymous said...

September 22, 2020

Coronavirus

US

Cases ( 7,097,937)
Deaths ( 205,471)

India

Cases ( 5,640,496)
Deaths ( 90,021)

Mexico

Cases ( 700,580)
Deaths ( 73,697)

France

Cases ( 468,069)
Deaths ( 31,416)

UK

Cases ( 403,551)
Deaths ( 41,825)

Germany

Cases ( 277,176)
Deaths ( 9,491)

Canada

Cases ( 146,663)
Deaths ( 9,234)

China

Cases ( 85,297)
Deaths ( 4,634)

Anonymous said...

September 22, 2020

Coronavirus   (Deaths per million)

US   ( 620)
UK   ( 615)
Mexico   ( 570)
France   ( 480)

Canada   ( 244)
Germany   ( 113)
India   ( 65)
China   ( 3)

Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 10.4%, 6.7% and 10.5% for the United Kingdom, France and Mexico respectively.  Why these ratios are still so high, though they have been even higher, needs to be examined.

Anonymous said...

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-23/Chinese-mainland-reports-10-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-U0L2Be2IP6/index.html

September 23, 2020

Chinese mainland reports 10 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths

The Chinese mainland registered 10 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, all from overseas, the National Health Commission said on Wednesday.

This is the 38th consecutive day without domestic transmissions on the Chinese mainland. No deaths from the disease were reported while 8 patients were discharged from hospitals.

The total number of confirmed cases stands at 85,307 and the death toll at 4,634 on the Chinese mainland, while 385 asymptomatic patients are under medical observation.

Chinese mainland new imported cases

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-23/Chinese-mainland-reports-10-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-U0L2Be2IP6/img/ac9e52f44544487cb1e23bed5aa39116/ac9e52f44544487cb1e23bed5aa39116.jpeg

Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-23/Chinese-mainland-reports-10-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-U0L2Be2IP6/img/5146fd6ded2f4ecb8cf13d5912af8853/5146fd6ded2f4ecb8cf13d5912af8853.jpeg

Anonymous said...

There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since May 17.  There has been no community or domestic coronavirus case for 38 days.  Since June began there have been only 2 limited community clusters of infections, in Beijing and Urumqi in Xinjiang, both of which were contained with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, and both outbreaks ended in a few weeks.  Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine.  Asymptomatic cases are all quarantined.

The flow of imported cases to China is low, but has been persistent.  There are as a result 168 active imported coronavirus cases on the Chinese mainland, but of which only 4 cases are classed as serious or critical.

China has 11 COVID-19 vaccines in clinical trials, 4 in phase three trials.  Production of these vaccines is ongoing, should there be approval.  Successful vaccines will be treated as public goods. *

* https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-18/China-has-11-COVID-19-vaccines-in-clinical-trials-four-in-phase-III--TSRap2Yk6s/index.html

Anonymous said...

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1308732221851938817

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I wonder how many people are ready for just how bad the next six weeks plus are going to be. This is going to be the most dangerous election since 1860, with substantial odds that America as we know it will be damaged or even destroyed 1/

7:37 AM · Sep 23, 2020

Trump's campaign strategy is to brazen it out with obvious lies: the virus isn't a threat, we have a vaccine, the economy is booming, violent mobs are roaming the streets of New York. Many people will believe him 2/

Even so, it probably — probably — won't be enough. He's behind in the polls, and the two most cited models give him a 15-23 percent chance of winning 3/

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president… https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/…

There is, however, a near-zero percent chance that he'll accept the result if he loses. He'll try to stop counting of absentee ballots, claim massive fraud, and probably try to get the Supreme Court to overturn the result 4/

Expect violence from Trump supporters, maybe lots of it, both to disrupt voting on Election Day and in the days that follow. Is this overheated? So far Trump and his party have borne out every prediction by pessimists and made fools of optimists 5/

If you aren't terrified, you aren't paying attention. But terror isn't productive; you should be asking what you personally can do to save democracy, which is very much under threat 6/

Anonymous said...

September 23, 2020

Coronavirus

Israel

Cases ( 200,041)
Deaths ( 1,316)

Deaths per million ( 143)

-----------------------------------

July 4, 2020

Coronavirus

Israel

Cases ( 29,170)
Deaths ( 330)

Deaths per million ( 36)

Having apparently approached a containment of the coronavirus in June, the Israeli government incautiously opened schools and businesses, and the result has been a persistent community infection spread contributing to what are now 200,041 cases in the small country as compared to 85,307 in all through all of mainland China.

Israel has tragically doubled and gone far beyond double the number of coronavirus cases in mainland China.

Anonymous said...

Israel recorded 9,762 coronavirus cases this today. The health and resultant economic consequences of an incautious opening of schools and businesses have been devastating:

September 23, 2020

Coronavirus

Israel

Cases ( 203,136)
Deaths ( 1,316)

Deaths per million ( 143)

Anonymous said...

About Israel, which distressingly recorded 11,316 new coronavirus cases today, the failure to contain the spread of infections reflects a structural healthcare problem that was understood even as Israel incautiously opened schools and business.  Israel has had a medical laboratory or testing problem for quite a while, so that in opening schools and businesses there was a lack of testing and analysis.  This problem was understood from the beginning, but correcting such a problem is costly in resources and under the circumstances slow.

The patterns to be found in looking to the pandemic are repeatedly reflections of domestic public health or healthcare development.

Anonymous said...

September 24, 2020

Coronavirus

Israel

Cases ( 209,635)
Deaths ( 1,376)

Deaths per million ( 150)

———————————–

July 4, 2020

Coronavirus

Israel

Cases ( 29,170)
Deaths ( 330)

Deaths per million ( 36)

Anonymous said...

September 24, 2020

Coronavirus

Spain

Cases ( 704,209)
Deaths ( 31,118)

Deaths per million ( 665)

Portugal

Cases ( 71,156)
Deaths ( 1,931)

Deaths per million ( 190)

AXEC / E.K-H said...

Barkley Rosser

On several occasions, I told you that economics is NOT a science and economists are NOT scientists but stupid and corrupt agenda pushers. With your replies, you regularly proved my point.

Things have now advanced into a new dimension. In a recent post I stated “Most people have not noticed it, but the official capitulation/sellout of science happened on Sep 3, 2020.”
https://axecorg.blogspot.com/2020/09/occasional-tweets-no-200903.html

As it turned out, there was at least one person who realized the significance of the event: John Derbyshire “They Might As Well Put Bones Through Their Noses”— the Corruption of Scientific America.
https://www.unz.com/jderbyshire/they-might-as-well-put-bones-through-their-noses-the-corruption-of-scientific-america/

Summarizing our exchanges about economics, it is fair to say that you played an active role in this development.

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke

rosserjb@jmu.edu said...

Egmont,

I am unable to use your link. So, do you want to give a quick explanation of what supposedly happened on Sept. 3, 2020 that was so earth shatteringly important about economics? I hope it was not just somebody actually spoke up to defend your goofy profit theory.

AXEC / E.K-H said...

Barkley Rosser

You ask “So, do you want to give a quick explanation of what supposedly happened on Sept. 3, 2020 that was so earth shatteringly important about economics?”

The significance of Sep 3, 2020, is that the genuine sciences have abandoned themselves by officially ending the separation of science and politics and by submitting themselves to political mob rule and the practices of the entertainment industry. See

Occasional Tweets No 200903
https://axecorg.blogspot.com/2020/09/occasional-tweets-no-200903.html

This, though, is what economists did long ago. Since the founding fathers, economists claim to be scientists but have never been anything else than political cockroaches.

In the recent presidential debate, Mr. Biden called Mr. Trump a liar and clown. As above, so below. What holds for the occupant of the top institution holds mutatis mutandis for the occupants of large parts of the institutional body, academic economics in particular. See my assessment of Nov 2016

Economists: The Trumps of science
https://axecorg.blogspot.com/2016/11/economists-trumps-of-science.html

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke