That would be the nuclear football, the one that a President of the United States can use to destroy all human life on the planet with by pushing some buttons. It turns out there is a second one, a backup, one that is kept near the backup President. That would be the Vice President.
So CNN has put out a report that Tyler Cowen has picked up on and put as one of his daily news stories on Marginal Revolution, although barely commented on and not getting much attention on most media. The story in fact sort of does not quite play up how serious it is. It focused on how people at DOD did not know how serious the situation was, without in fact playing up how serious it was.
The problem is that while there has been a lot of attention paid to how former President Trump continued to tweet negatively about his own VP, Mike Pence, even after hearing that Pence had been evacuated from the Senate chambers with a mob having entered the Capitol. Trump's concern was how Pence had let him down by not engaging in an unconstitutional act to try not to recognize the certified state electoral college vote results. This tweet was read to the crowd outside, and the mob chanted over and over "Hang Mike Pence!" We have now all seen this.
But probably the most dangerous part of this whole episode, I mean even probably worse than that Trump might have overturned the election and turned the US into a lifetime dictatorship run by him, is that when the mob was within 100 feet of Pence, the backup nuclear football was with him, carried by a Secret Service agent.
Now, if the mob had been a bit faster and caught Pence, certainly that Secret Service agent would have resisted vigorously, probably to the extent of giving up his life. But if the mob had succeeded in obtaining that nuclear football, well, maybe there are limits on the ability of a random person getting that object that keep them from destroying all human life on this planet. But even short of that, there is no doubt that one of these people could have brought about very serious trouble. This story needs more reporting, not how mean Trump was not to stand up for his VP who was following the law to certify the electoral college votes that would bring about the end of Trujmp's presidency.
Barkley Rosser
16 comments:
I think this story is overblown.
If the football follows in the design habits of other highly sensitive hardware, it will have a self-destruct device. Whichever member of the armed forces (not a member of the Secret Service) was carrying it almost certainly would have triggered the self destruct if there was any risk of the device falling into the hands of the Trumpist mob. It's quite possible that was done given the circumstances.
It's also critical to note that the football is a means to communicate with the Pentagon, not a 'press this button to end all life' device. It doesn't send an electronic signal to autonomously launch Armageddon; it sends a message to other humans indicating that nuclear war should be started.
While nothing is certain regarding Pentagon competence, it seems extremely unlikely that a launch order from the VP's football would be honored unless Trump (and his football) was incapacitated and the Pentagon had independent knowledge of a situation that justified a nuclear strike. This is doubly true if it was known that the VP's football could be in the hands of hostile forces.
In short, potential loss of the VP's football would be bad, but almost certainly not Armageddon-level bad.
1. Reportedly there is more in that 'football; case than a phone; e.g., there are tactical/target summaries that could not only embarrass the US but elevate international tensions and damage alliances.
2. There is no evidence that Trump knew who exactly who Tuberville was talking about when he heard, "they are taking Pence out." Given Trump's penchant for mob lingo it is just as likely that Trump assumed "they" referred to his partisans "taking out" Pence -- to the gallows or whatever -- which puts quite a different slant to his contemporaneous tweet. There is no reason to give Trump the benefit of the doubt regarding any outrage; seriously.
So, the good news is that the Senate has agreed
to call witnesses before they decide the outcome.
'Five Republicans — Senators Susan Collins of Maine, Lindsey Graham of South
Carolina, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Mitt Romney of Utah and Ben Sasse of Nebraska
— joined Democrats in a 55-to-45 vote to support the call for more witnesses and evidence.'
The Senate approved a last-minute call for witnesses in the impeachment trial, putting off a verdict
NY Times - February 13
An expected verdict in Donald J. Trump’s impeachment trial was thrown into doubt on Saturday after the Senate voted to allow witnesses to be called, a result of a surprise push by Democrats to summon a Republican congresswoman who has said she was told that the former president sided with the mob as rioters were attacking the Capitol. ...
The vote came after Representative Jamie Raskin of Maryland, the lead impeachment manager, said that Democrats wanted the chance to call Representative Jaime Herrera Beutler, Republican of Washington, to testify. Ms. Herrera Beutler confirmed late Friday evening that Representative Kevin McCarthy, the minority leader, had told her that Mr. Trump said in a phone call during the rampage that the rioters were more upset about the election than Mr. McCarthy was.
Mr. Raskin said he wanted a short deposition held virtually with the congresswoman, who was one of 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Mr. Trump, and a subpoena for her contemporaneous notes.
“We believe we’ve proven our case,” Mr. Raskin said moments after the Senate convened in the impeachment trial session on Saturday morning. But he said Ms. Herrera Beutler’s statement amounted to “an additional critical piece of corroborating evidence, further confirming the charges before you.”
Five Republicans — Senators Susan Collins of Maine, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Mitt Romney of Utah and Ben Sasse of Nebraska — joined Democrats in a 55-to-45 vote to support the call for more witnesses and evidence. (Mr. Graham, who has warned that Republicans would force calls on a number of Democrats should witnesses be voted on, initially voted against the request.) ...
Or not...
House managers drop call for witnesses after Trump lawyers agree to admit Herrera Beutler’s claims
The Senate hurtled toward acquitting Donald J. Trump on Saturday on the charge of “incitement of insurrection” after House impeachment managers abruptly dropped their push for witnesses only hours after making it, clearing the way for closing arguments and a verdict by day’s end.
The trial pushed forward after Democrats prosecuting the former president struck a deal with Mr. Trump’s defense team to add to the trial record a written statement by a Republican congresswoman who has said she was told that the former president sided with the mob as rioters were attacking the Capitol.
Earlier, the Senate had voted to allow witnesses in the trial after Democrats made a surprise bid to subpoena Representative Jaime Herrera Beutler, Republican of Washington. ...
In her statement Friday night, Ms. Herrera Beutler said Mr. McCarthy told her that when he had called Mr. Trump to ask him to call off the mob, the former president had replied that the rioters storming the Capitol were “more upset about the election than you are.” ...
She said Mr. McCarthy asked him “to publicly and forcefully call off the riot.”
Mr. Trump replied by saying that antifa, not his supporters, was responsible. When Mr. McCarthy said that was not true, the former president was curt.
“Well, Kevin, I guess these people are more upset about the election than you are,” he said, according Ms. Herrera Beutler’s account of what Mr. McCarthy told her.
She pleaded with those who were at the White House with him that day, or former Vice President Mike Pence, to come forward and share eyewitness accounts and details about what they saw.
Lawmakers in both parties were blindsided by the witness request on Saturday morning, which came just after the top Senate Republican, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, had privately told his colleagues he was ready to acquit Mr. Trump, confirming that a conviction was exceedingly unlikely.
Republicans, furious over the prospect of continuing a trial many of them have dismissed as unconstitutional, warned that they would block any efforts to approve nominations to the Biden administration or pandemic relief legislation should the trial continue. ...
Supposedly, there is some support (from
GOP senators) for a 'censure' a resolution,
but not one that would include subsequent
election prohibitions.
So, that won't happen either.
Fred,
But I think a censure can be passed with a simply majority, not a two thirds one, and likewise an invocation of the 14th Amendment, although perhaps this could be filibustered, which would require 11 GOPs for cloture rather than the 17 for conviction, which, I suspect they do not have, especially with McConnell unsupportive. This will simply be a publicity show, probably worthwhile, but the GOPs are simply not going to allow anything that really hurts Trump.
As it is, where he is most likely to get in trouble is with criminal prosecutions, as in Georgia with his interference with the election with his phone calls, potentially a felony. That he cannot so easily get out of by threatening to have his followers primary GOP senators.
nobody,
I shall grant that an apocalyptic launch could not have been made, and also that apparently a military officer was with it along with secret service people, as well as the fact that Trump's one was with him in the WH. So I overstated things.
On re-reading the article in question, what came up was that people at the Pentagon did not know its status. It could have been deactivated before any order was sent from it. Probably the worst that could have happened was that highly sensitive information in it related to targets, launch codes, and other matters could have been accessed and made available to outside elements. Not the end of the world, but not all that great either.
A censure resolution can simply castigate the former president
without prohibiting him from holding future office, which is
the 14th Amendment language that GOP members object to.
‘These criminals were carrying his banners’
McConnell castigates Trump for provoking
the Capitol riot minutes after voting to acquit him
Minutes after voting to acquit Donald J. Trump on Saturday, Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky and the minority leader, castigated the former president for what he called a “disgraceful dereliction of duty,” pinning responsibility for last month’s Capitol assault directly on Mr. Trump.
In a speech more blistering as many of those in favor of conviction, Mr. McConnell said the former president had shouted “wild myths” about election fraud into the “the largest megaphone on planet earth” with foreseeable consequences. Congress and the American public paid the price, he added.
It was a stunning statement from a leader who has defended Senate prerogatives zealously, in which he effectively argued that Mr. Trump was guilty as charged, but the Senate could do nothing about it.
“There is no question — none — that President Trump is practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of the day,” he said. “The people that stormed this building believed they were acting on the wishes and instructions of their president. And having that belief was a foreseeable consequence of the growing crescendo of false statements, conspiracy theories and reckless hyperbole.” ...
---
Here are the seven Republicans who voted to convict Trump">Here are the seven Republicans who voted to convict Trump
(Names at the link.)
'A censure resolution can simply castigate the former president
without prohibiting him from holding future office,'
A simple majority is all that's required for passage.
Just one GOP senator, apparently.
'A censure resolution can simply castigate the former president
without prohibiting him from holding future office.'
Such a toothless censure may well do more harm than good.
By motivating Trump & his base towards another run,
and permitting them to go forward with that.
Proceed at our own risk.
So, this dead thread with the vulgar title
is still open here on Econospeak, and now
also open on Angry Bear where no one can
post (or hardly anyone).
What is up with my favorite blogging sites?
Elsewhere...
On the Post-Pandemic Horizon, Could That Be … a Boom?
NY Times - February 21
The U.S. economy remains mired in a pandemic winter of shuttered storefronts, high unemployment and sluggish job growth. But on Wall Street and in Washington, attention is shifting to an intriguing if indistinct prospect: a post-Covid boom.
Forecasters have always expected the pandemic to be followed by a period of strong growth as businesses reopen and Americans resume their normal activities. But in recent weeks, economists have begun to talk of something stronger: a supercharged rebound that brings down unemployment, drives up wages and may foster years of stronger growth.
There are hints that the economy has turned a corner: Retail sales jumped last month as the latest round of government aid began showing up in consumers’ bank accounts. New unemployment claims have declined from early January, though they remain high. Measures of business investment have picked up, a sign of confidence from corporate leaders.
Economists surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia this month predicted that U.S. output will increase 4.5 percent this year, which would make it the best year since 1999. Some expect an even stronger bounce: Economists at Goldman Sachs forecast that the economy will grow 6.8 percent this year and that the unemployment rate will drop to 4.1 percent by December, a level that took eight years to achieve after the last recession. ...
... A boom also carries risks. In recent weeks, prominent economists including Lawrence H. Summers, a Treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton, have warned that Mr. Biden’s relief proposal is too large and could lead the economy to overheat, pushing up prices and forcing the Federal Reserve to bring the party to a premature end. Fed officials have largely dismissed those concerns, noting that the consistent problem in recent decades has been too little inflation rather than too much.
Other economists fear that the rebound will primarily benefit those at the top, compounding inequities that the pandemic has widened.
“We may see a boom in the future, but that may just leave some people even further behind, or may give them a trickle when they need a waterfall,” said Tara Sinclair, a George Washington University economist.
But for many businesses and households that have struggled to stay afloat during the pandemic, those concerns pale in comparison with the opportunities that a boom could provide.
Workout Anytime, a chain of 24-hour fitness clubs, was hit hard by the early stages of the pandemic, which shut down gyms nationwide. Business has since rebounded, but not to previous levels, as customers remain wary about working out in close quarters.
But Greg Maurer, a company vice president, sees better times ahead. The pandemic hasn’t dampened people’s enthusiasm for working out, he said — if anything, it has made the importance of physical fitness clearer. As soon as people are sure it’s safe, he said, he expects business to be gangbusters.
“This may be the biggest growth period we’ve ever had coming up,” he said. “There is a huge group of people out there saying, ‘I cannot wait to get back to the club.’” ...
Hugh Hewitt says Senate should confirm Tanden
Conservative talk radio host Hugh Hewitt on Monday called for the Senate to confirm Neera Tanden as Office of Budget and Management (OMB) director after several key centrist senators have said they will vote against her nomination.
In an op-ed for The Washington Post, Hewitt said that though he had suffered “Tanden-inflicted scars” in controversial tweets Tanden had sent while serving as the head of the liberal Center for American Progress, he thought that senators voting against her over tweets would be punishing political opinions.
“She’s a serious left-liberal, though not as far to the left as Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, so she’s left some marks on Team Sanders as well. She should also be confirmed as OMB director,” Hewitt wrote.
“All political people, especially senators, should live with the same rules of political debate as the rest of us. They should not use their confirmation power to protect themselves from online criticism, however hurtful,” Hewitt wrote. “Everyone draws the line at threats. But Tanden has just clobbered people the good old-fashioned way: with words.” ...
(An unlikely wise observation from Hugh Hewitt. Go Figure.)
(Re-posted in Angry Bear, but less likely to appear there.)
The GOP should forgive Neera Tanden
Washington Post - Hugh Hewitt - February 20
It's Niall...
History’s Lesson for Biden: Stuff Happens
Presidents sworn in during crises are popular at first.
But unforeseen events can soon change that.
Bloomberg - Niall Ferguson - January 24
A president elected at a time of deep national crisis generally has an advantage over one elected when things are going fairly well. Franklin D. Roosevelt was sworn in shortly after the Great Depression reached its nadir. Harry Truman became president in the final, bloodiest phase of World War II. Richard Nixon inherited Vietnam and domestic turmoil from Lyndon B. Johnson. Barack Obama entered the White House in the depths of the global financial crisis.
All four had their ups and downs, but all were re-elected. If you take over at a dark time — especially if it’s just before the dawn — the chances are you’ll be able to play “Happy Days Are Here Again” when you run for a second term.
In a similar way, Joe Biden took the oath of office last Wednesday as the third and biggest wave of the Covid-19 pandemic appeared to be nearing its crest, a year after the Chinese government belatedly acknowledged the seriousness of the disaster that had begun in Wuhan. Like many new administrations since Roosevelt’s in 1933, the Biden administration now seeks to impress us with a hundred days of hyperactivity, beginning with 17 executive actions on Inauguration Day. Coming soon: a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill.
In truth, the vaccination program already underway, combined with the naturally acquired immunity of people previously infected with the virus, would probably get the U.S. close to herd immunity by the summer, even if Joe Biden spent the next six months just riding his Peloton. And the economy would roar back to something like normal service as the pandemic ended even if Republicans had retained control of the Senate and blocked further fiscal support.
In short, Joe Biden, who starts out with a 68% approval rating, according to Gallup, ought to be even more popular by Memorial Day — not just twice as popular as Trump was throughout his term, but up there with the most popular presidents since polling began: Truman on VJ Day, John F. Kennedy in his first 100 days, George H.W. Bush after the Gulf War, George W. Bush after 9/11 — the exclusive 80%-plus Approval Club. ...
(As you can imagine, the remainder of the piece is packed
with appreciation & good will for Biden & Harris.)
What’s the deal with Joe Manchin?
Here are 3 key things to understand why he might sink a lot of the Democratic agenda
via @BostonGlobe - February 24
So far in the Biden presidency, there has been inauguration week, impeachment week, impeachment trial week, and now, it seems, we have arrived at Joe Manchin week.
The West Virginia Democratic Senator seems to be at the center of basically every issue swirling around American politics these days. He basically knifed the Cabinet-level nomination to lead the Office of Management and Budget when he expressed his opposition to her confirmation. He may do the same to another Biden Cabinet nomination, this time for Interior Secretary. He also is a key reason why Congress won’t be passing a $15 per hour federal minimum wage and is potentially to blame if Democrats lower the price tag of the COVID relief bill.
Anyone who has known Manchin over the years knows he enjoys the attention. He also enjoys wielding the power that the current make-up of the Senate gives a moderate like himself, who is willing to buck his own party. Remember, Manchin last year voted to convict Trump and then almost immediately publicly flirted with the idea of endorsing him for president. Got that?
It’s understandable, then, if people from all political backgrounds are asking a basic question: What’s the deal with Manchin, anyway?
To understand him is to understand the three following things:
His state
Joe Manchin began his political career running for office as a Democrat in a deeply Democratic state. Then over the last two decades, West Virginia took a hard turn to the right, first on social issues and then going all in for Donald Trump. Indeed, Trump beat Hillary Clinton there by 42 percent in 2016 and he beat Biden there by 39 percent last year. For context, Trump’s margin of victory was higher only in Wyoming.
In other words, while Manchin grew up in an environment where anyone in West Virginia politics had to be a Democrat, being one there today is very difficult. After all, the sitting governor, Jim Justice, was elected as a Democrat and then switched to being a Republican once in office.
So as much as many conservatives and liberals see the Manchin bipartisan talk as schtick, there is a political necessity to staying at arms length from many other Senate Democrats. He needs to have the branding that he is somehow different.
Robert Byrd
Robert Carlyle Byrd represented West Virginia in the US Senate for 51 years, making him the longest-serving senator in US history. If one drives around West Virginia, his name can be found literally everywhere: on roads, bridges, buildings, you name it.
During his time in the Senate, Byrd used his seniority to gain power, and with that power, bring home money to his financially struggling state. For that, he was appreciated.
Byrd died in office and the next person elected to the seat was Manchin. Manchin sees it as his responsibility to live out that part of Byrd’s legacy, partly because his constituents expect him to deliver federal dollars for his home state.
Should Manchin have been simply a quiet, reliable Democrat, he would wield less power and might have been voted out of office. Byrd is the model for West Virginia and if Manchin isn’t going to play that way, then the state’s voters might as well as vote for a Republican instead.
The Senate dynamics
There is an inside game in the US Senate right now that few Americans care about or follow, but it is critical to understanding Manchin and how legislating with him will work.
The Senate stands at a 50-50 partisan breakdown. Practically speaking, that means that any Democrat can sink a bill, and any Republican can be the actual power player if they decide to cross the aisle. ...
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