It keeps looking like it might, but then ne obstacles seem to appear. President Biden promised to undo what I have long argued was the worst foreign policy mistake made by Donald Trump. He should have just done it right after he took office, but he made a bunch of extra demands and the negotiations went nowhere. Then the moderate Rouhani government was replaced by the hardline Raisi one, something some of us like me forecasted would happen if he listened to these people who thought he should make demand about missiles and foreign groups, none of this going anywhere.
Anyway, there have been fresh rumors of a nearly done deal, but it seems to be stalled out now on two items. One is US demanding Iran let IAEA inspect some sites. The other is Iran demanding Biden promise no future president will undo the deal the way Trump did. But he cannot promise that, or maybe he can promise it, but he cannot deliver it, and they should know that.
A further complication is thr Ukraine war, with Iran now supplying Russia with drones. This is not directly a part of the negotiation, but it is souring the atmosphere, although Russia is pushing for the deal to be cut.
Another complication is that the Iranian leaders think that Biden is desperate for the extra 2 mbpd of oil production and exports that would probably come out of Iran with an end to sanctions. But they may have not notieced that gasoline prices in the US have been steadily declininb for nearly three months. Not quite so desperate, and also burned by MBS, who gave him a miniscul 100,000 mbpd increase in production for that fist bump, now withdrawn on request of V.V. Puting because of the ongoing decline in oil prices.
Anyway, the JCPOA should have been revived long ago, but here we are, and unclear if it ever will be.
Barkley Rosser
9 comments:
So if one is against the JCPOA, what exactly is the plan? Seems to me the JCPOA is the proverbial half a loaf.
I think those opposed to JCPOA like to see Iran economically weakend so it cannot aid allies in region. Only a handful of nations oppose JCPOA, most of them Middle Eastern nations having bad relations with Iran such as Saudi Arabia, Israel, UAE. The Israelis in particular want to see Iran unable to Hezbollah in Lebanon, not to mention Palestinians in Gaza. The Saudis do not want the Iranians arming the Zayi Shia Houthis in Yemen, although there is now a cease fire in Yemen and reports of negotiations behind the scenes between the Saudis and Iranians.
True, but some are fond of saying that all options are on the table.
To Angry Bear People.
It may be because I am out of US at moment, but when going to AB I could read nothing without accepting something wanting all my info, Power Admiral, or some such crap.
No, not going to give it to them. If this is something you guys are doing, it is goodbye. I shall not read or comment on anything on your blog ever again.
Got it?
I hope this garbage goes away when I return to US.
BTW, you guys have too many ads, way toooo commercial.
Back in US, AB not misbehaving anymore. Thanks.
BTW, latest reports are markets now view the JCPOA deal as not about to go in force anytime soon, effectively dead for now. Too bad all the way around.
Here is a good analysis - perhaps after midterms or single-elements can be agreed upon instead of an omnibus?
https://www.crisisgroup.org/b87-middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iran/restoring-iran-nuclear-deal-still
Maybe. I keep hoping.
Back at the beginning of the year I disagreed with two prredictions made in the Washington Post by David Ignatius. One was that he forecasted a full-blown invasion of Ukraine by Russia and he also forecasted that a revived JCPOA would be successfully negotiated. I disagreed with both of those, although I put it at about 60-40, recognizing that he might well be right on both of them.
Obvioualy he proved right about the invasion, but so far, unfortunately, I have continued to be right about the JCPOA.
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