Sunday, January 25, 2009

The First Fleet Whores on Australia’s Invasion Day


Today is Australia Day, though the vast majority of Australian aboriginal people would understandably prefer to call it ‘invasion day’. At least in these times Aboriginal grievances in relation to this awkward day get some mainstream media airing. The plight of my white female ancestors still doesn’t. They were the unwilling and much-abused first immigrants to this country.

“The First Fleet consisted of 1,480 people more than half of whom were convicts. There were 586 male and 192 female convicts as well as a large number of seamen, marines, servants and officials. Only a tiny fraction of these were accompanied by their wives and children.”

“…Within the penal colony, women were assigned only one main function – they were there primarily as objects of sexual gratification. The main difficulty, as far as the British authorities were concerned, was to find a sufficient number of women convicts, and to do this they had to impose preponderantly harsher sentences on women.….

The sexual abuse of female convicts began on the ships. Although after 1811 the women traveled on separate ships from the male convicts, they had the crews to contend with. WHR Brown told the Select Committee on the State of Gaols in 1819 that:

“These women informed me, as well as others of their shipmates, that they were subject to every insult from the master of the ship and sailors; that the master stript several and publickly whipped them; and that one young woman, from ill treatment, threw herself into the sea and perished, that the master beat one of the women that lived with me with a rope with his own hands till she was much bruised in her arms, breasts, and other parts of her body. I am certain, from her general good conduct, she could not have merited any cruelty from him.” [1]

My great, great grandmother was Mary O’Neill born in Maitland in New South Wales in 1843. On the genealogical history now finally revealed it is possible that she was related to another Mary O’Neill. A woman that is referred to in the journal of William Elyard, a surgeon superintendent on the "John Bull" which sailed from Cork on 25 July 1821 via St. Jago, to arrive in Sydney on 18 December 1821. Mary is described as one of “an aggressive pair” of women. Mary O'Neill and another woman, Ellen Nolan, were “identified as assaulting one of the men while cleaning” on this “troublesome voyage” of the convict ship taking the women to the Paramatta Factory. [2] The latter “operated as a prison, a maternity home, a marriage bureau, an employment exchange and a hostel or refuge for women in transit between jobs. All its inmates, however, were strictly speaking prisoners...’ What a comment on the common status of all females of the lower classes!” [3]

So cheers to our Mary O’Neills and our damned whores. May we continue to break the handle of many a hammer in our go-slow rebellions against enslavement and worse.

…..the damned whores the moment that the[y] got below fel a fighting amongst one another and Capt Meredith order the Sergt. Not to part them but to let them fight it out…..
- Lt Ralph Clark of the First Fleet, ‘The Journals and Letters of Lt Ralph Clark 1787-1792.



[1] In CMH Clark, ‘Select Documents in Australian History 1788-1850, Angus & Robertson, Sydney, 1965, p48. As quoted in ‘Damned Whores and God’s Police’ by Anne Summers.

[2] Will Elyard’s Journal.
http://members.optusnet.com.au/elyard/elyard_aust/wsg1771-voy.htm

[3] ‘The most outrageous conduct’ Convict rebellions in colonial Australia
By Tom O'LINCOLN
http://www.anu.edu.au/polsci/marx/interventions/convicts.htm

The Fiscal Policy Debate Today on the Sunday Talkies – Who Listens to Economists?

While the Republicans are complain that the Democrats are not considering their ideas, Nancy Pelosi says that good ideas will be considered:

Appearing on ABC's This Week, Nancy Pelosi said that Republicans have had the opportunity to be included in crafting the stimulus bill -- even if not many of their ideas have been adopted. "Well, we will take some," said Pelosi. "We will judge them by their ability to create jobs, to -- to help turn the economy around, to stabilize the economy, and to see how much they cost."


John McCain appeared on Faux News and said:

In an appearance on Fox News Sunday, John McCain said he won't vote for President Obama's stimulus package as it stands now. McCain said there need to be more tax cuts for businesses, payroll tax cuts, and for existing tax cuts to be made permanent: " Well, the plan was written by the majority in -- a Democrat majority in the House, primarily. And so, yeah, I think there has to be major rewrites if we want to stimulate the economy."


Mark Thoma brings us a piece by Larry Mishel that basically says McCain and his Republicans colleagues are clueless.

"Not a Cure All, But..."

by the Sandwichman

From the Globe and Mail Report on Business, yesterday:
Yes you can: Save jobs by sacrificing your time and money.

As employers and employees confront the spectre of mass layoffs, creative measures are coming to the fore, including individual workers cutting their workweek to four days, with a proportional cut in pay.

The idea gained currency this week in U.S. President Barack Obama's call-to-duty inauguration speech. America's recovery, he said, in part will rely on "the selflessness of workers who would rather cut their hours than see a friend lose their job."
The Sandwichman points out the potential pitfall of the "proportional cut in pay" line. If workers are expected to handle the same workload in four days, it's just a speed-up with a pay cut. And what does that do to consumer spending? Here's where government needs to step in to make up the difference in pay as part of its economic stimulus package. More on that angle from Dean Baker in Monday's Guardian.

Saturday, January 24, 2009

Charlton Heston: Gun Nut or Sandwich Man?


Sandwichman thinks he may have discovered a way to build traffic to the site. For the record, Sandwichman wonders, "what's the fuss?" One the one hand, I feel more threatened by SUV drivers talking on cel phones than I do by goons carrying guns. On the other hand, how come there isn't a second amendment right to bring your own damn water or toothpaste onto an airliner? I mean, "airport security" is so obviously about conditioning people to follow orders and not question authority.

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Galbraith Part 2 on "Can Obamanomics Solve the Crisis?"

James K. Galbraith has a second part to his interview with Paul Jay on the real news. He goes on greater length about how it would be unwise to cut social security or medicare. He worries that Obama may be listening to those who want this, including conservative Democrats, but also notes that his public statements so far have not specifically said what to do about social security. "Wait and see," says Galbraith. He also addresses several other issues including the status of the dollar and the need for aid to those in danger of home foreclosures.

The link.

A Grammar of the Multiplier

by the Sandwichman


Paolo Virno's A Grammar of the Multitude is a short book, but it casts a very long shadow. Behind it looms the entire history of the labor movement and its heretical wing, Italian "workerism" (operaismo), which rethought Marxism in light of the struggles of the 1960s and 1970s....

6.5. Thesis 4

For the post-Fordist multitude every qualitative difference between labor time and non-labor time falls short...

The concept of "full employment" is obviously essential to any consideration of the Keynesian "multiplier". Yet the very distinction between employment and unemployment is what, according to Virno, is at stake in Post-Fordist society.

The Sandwichman can do little more here than simply to note the existence of the operaismo analysis. I have my reservations about the degree of abstraction of that analysis and it's exclusive historical contextualization in a brief and recent expanse of European history. Nevertheless, the very term, "Post-Fordist," calls into question glib manipulation of Keynesian terminology.
If we can say that Fordism incorporated, and rewrote in its own way, some aspects of the socialist experience, then post-Fordism has fundamentally dismissed both Keynesianism and socialism. Post-Fordism, hinging as it does upon the general intellect and the multitude, puts forth, in its own way, typical demands of communism (abolition of work, dissolution of the State, etc.). Post-Fordism is the communism of capital.
James Callaghan, in 1976:
We used to think that you could spend your way out of a recession and increase employment by cutting taxes and boosting government spending. I tell you in all candour that that option no longer exists, and in so far as it ever did exist, it only worked on each occasion since the war by injecting a bigger dose of inflation into the economy, followed by a higher level of unemployment as the next step.

Barro on the Fiscal Policy Multiplier: Does He Understand the Full Employment Constraint?

Robert Barro writes an op-ed critiquing the Obama fiscal policy proposal that is far below his intellectual standards. He starts off well:

Team Obama is reportedly using a number around 1.5. To think about what this means, first assume that the multiplier was 1.0. In this case, an increase by one unit in government purchases and, thereby, in the aggregate demand for goods would lead to an increase by one unit in real gross domestic product (GDP). Thus, the added public goods are essentially free to society. If the government buys another airplane or bridge, the economy's total output expands by enough to create the airplane or bridge without requiring a cut in anyone's consumption or investment. The explanation for this magic is that idle resources -- unemployed labor and capital -- are put to work to produce the added goods and services. If the multiplier is greater than 1.0, as is apparently assumed by Team Obama, the process is even more wonderful. In this case, real GDP rises by more than the increase in government purchases. Thus, in addition to the free airplane or bridge, we also have more goods and services left over to raise private consumption or investment.


In other words, Barro understands that the Keynesian multiplier theory rests on the proposition that the economy is below full employment – which seems like a plausible characterization of today’s economy. But then Barro pulls some empirical research from a period where we were likely near full employment:

A much more plausible starting point is a multiplier of zero. In this case, the GDP is given, and a rise in government purchases requires an equal fall in the total of other parts of GDP -- consumption, investment and net exports. In other words, the social cost of one unit of additional government purchases is one … What do the data show about multipliers? Because it is not easy to separate movements in government purchases from overall business fluctuations, the best evidence comes from large changes in military purchases that are driven by shifts in war and peace. A particularly good experiment is the massive expansion of U.S. defense expenditures during World War II … I have estimated that World War II raised U.S. defense expenditures by $540 billion (1996 dollars) per year at the peak in 1943-44, amounting to 44% of real GDP. I also estimated that the war raised real GDP by $430 billion per year in 1943-44. Thus, the multiplier was 0.8 (430/540). The other way to put this is that the war lowered components of GDP aside from military purchases. The main declines were in private investment, nonmilitary parts of government purchases, and net exports -- personal consumer expenditure changed little. Wartime production siphoned off resources from other economic uses -- there was a dampener, rather than a multiplier.


After saying “good grief”, I turn the microphone over to Paul Krugman:

Consumer goods were rationed; people were urged to restrain their spending to make resources available for the war effort. Oh, and the economy was at full employment — and then some. Rosie the Riveter, anyone? I can’t quite imagine the mindset that leads someone to forget all this, and think that you can use World War II to estimate the multiplier that might prevail in an underemployed, rationing-free economy.

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Mainstream Media Fights for the Little Guy in the Spirit of the Muckrackers

This article shows the ridiculous lengths that economists can go in defending the indefensible:

I. J. ALEXANDER DYCK, University of Toronto - Joseph L. Rotman School of Management
DAVID A. MOSS, Harvard Business School - Business, Government and the International Economy Unit

LUIGI ZINGALES, University of Chicago, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), University of Chicago - Polsky Center for Entrepreneurship, Graduate School of Business, European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)

We argue that profit-maximizing media help overcome the problem of "rational ignorance" highlighted by Downs (1957) and in so doing make elected representatives more sensitive to the interests of general voters. By collecting news and combining it with entertainment, media are able to inform passive voters on politically relevant issues. To show the impact this information has on legislative outcomes, we document the effect "muckraking" magazines had on the voting patterns of U.S. representatives and senators in the early part of the 20th century. We also show under what conditions profit-maximizing media will cater to general (less affluent) voters in their coverage, providing a counterbalance to special interests.

Galbraith on "Can Obamanomics Solve the Crisis?"

The answer is, maybe not. The crisis is deep and more direct intervention will be needed in both banking and shoring up purchasing power, according to James K. Galbraith in an interview on the real news, accessible here.

He especially worries about the shift I have posted on here in a worried manner that Obama seems to have drunk the social security kool-aid and may be looking at long term cutbacks in benefits. Instead of my "stand pat" and do nothing to/with social security, he actually calls for increasing social security benefits.

BTW, the tux he is wearing in the clip was apparently for going to some bipartisan inaugural ball in honor of John McCain. Go figure.

BIG in Japan... Work Sharing

by the Sandwichman

This is how it begins. With baby steps. Experience with these kinds of programs in the past is that people learn they actually like the extra free time.
In the deep south of Japan sits the tiny island of Himeshima. Farmers cultivate delicious prawns, the rare chestnut tiger butterfly flitters around the beach and 2,400 islanders wallow in total job security.

It has been so on Himeshima for 40 years and suddenly, faced with the most alarming economic downturn since the Second World War, everyone from the central Government in Tokyo to the country's biggest industrial conglomerates is desperate to copy its secret: work sharing...

Tactics for hard times as Japanese turn to job-sharing

Business groups split over work sharing

Helping Employers Cut Hours, Not Jobs

Business bigwig suggests work-sharing schemes to cope with tough times


"the selflessness of workers who would rather cut their hours than see a friend lose their job..."

President Obama

INAUGURAL ADDRESS
As we consider the road that unfolds before us, we remember with humble gratitude those brave Americans who, at this very hour, patrol far-off deserts and distant mountains. They have something to tell us, just as the fallen heroes who lie in Arlington whisper through the ages. We honor them not only because they are guardians of our liberty, but because they embody the spirit of service; a willingness to find meaning in something greater than themselves. And yet, at this moment — a moment that will define a generation — it is precisely this spirit that must inhabit us all.

For as much as government can do and must do, it is ultimately the faith and determination of the American people upon which this nation relies. It is the kindness to take in a stranger when the levees break, the selflessness of workers who would rather cut their hours than see a friend lose their job which sees us through our darkest hours. It is the firefighter's courage to storm a stairway filled with smoke, but also a parent's willingness to nurture a child, that finally decides our fate.

Our challenges may be new. The instruments with which we meet them may be new. But those values upon which our success depends — hard work and honesty, courage and fair play, tolerance and curiosity, loyalty and patriotism — these things are old. These things are true. They have been the quiet force of progress throughout our history. What is demanded then is a return to these truths. What is required of us now is a new era of responsibility — a recognition, on the part of every American, that we have duties to ourselves, our nation, and the world, duties that we do not grudgingly accept but rather seize gladly, firm in the knowledge that there is nothing so satisfying to the spirit, so defining of our character, than giving our all to a difficult task.
ACCEPTANCE SPEECH, DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
America, this is one of those moments.

I believe that as hard as it will be, the change we need is coming. Because I’ve seen it. Because I’ve lived it. I’ve seen it in Illinois, when we provided health care to more children and moved more families from welfare to work. I’ve seen it in Washington, when we worked across party lines to open up government and hold lobbyists more accountable, to give better care for our veterans and keep nuclear weapons out of terrorist hands.

And I’ve seen it in this campaign. In the young people who voted for the first time, and in those who got involved again after a very long time. In the Republicans who never thought they’d pick up a Democratic ballot, but did. I’ve seen it in the workers who would rather cut their hours back a day than see their friends lose their jobs, in the soldiers who re-enlist after losing a limb, in the good neighbors who take a stranger in when a hurricane strikes and the floodwaters rise.

This country of ours has more wealth than any nation, but that’s not what makes us rich. We have the most powerful military on Earth, but that’s not what makes us strong. Our universities and our culture are the envy of the world, but that’s not what keeps the world coming to our shores.

Instead, it is that American spirit – that American promise – that pushes us forward even when the path is uncertain; that binds us together in spite of our differences; that makes us fix our eye not on what is seen, but what is unseen, that better place around the bend.

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Gun Nuts Exposed at Distorting Data and Results

In the latest Econ Journal Watch, just out, Ian Ayres and John J. Donohue III have a paper, "Yet another refutation of the more guns, less crime hypothesis - with some help from Moody and Marvell" accessible (hopefully) at http://www.aier.org/ejw/archive/comments/doc_view/4018-ejw-200901?tmpi=component&format=raw.

Besides recounting how the major study by John Lott and Mustard has lots of data problems and cut off just before the post-1992 crime decline, they focus on a paper by Moody and Marvell that claims that a study of 24 states showed a reduction in crime for increasing access to guns. It turns out that in this study 23 of the 24 states had the opposite result, and the aggregate result was solely due to Florida. However, the data in Florida is all messed up and also probably caught a general crime wave decline due to a regression to the mean after the Mariel boat landings from Cuba in the early 1980s. I am not doing their paper justice, but the media discussion is often dominated by Lott and his allies who are now pushing for loosened gun laws in Virginia, and are counting on Dems laying low and not challenging their incessantly repeated claims that such gun law relaxations reduce crime. They should not lay low. The claims are baloney and lies, based on distorted date and misrepresentations of results from ones with better data.

Communists at the Inaugural Concert!

I was happy to see Pete Seeger at he Inaugural Concert (with the Boss in tow), singing all of the verses of This Land is Your Land, including the rarely sung:

As I was walkin'
Right there in front of me
Was a great big sign,
Said "Private Property"
But on the other side
It didn't say nothin'
'Cause this land was made for you and me.

Oh and speaking of Paul Samuelson, as Barkley has been, he has to be one of the funniest of all economists - a low bar I know. For example, his "algorithm" for solving the Transformation Problem: "Write down Values. Erase. Write down Prices." I think this was the same article where he called Marx "a minor Post-Ricardian." I have to admit, though, when I first read the article, I wasn't laughing. Spitting, more like. Ah, youth!

Monday, January 19, 2009

Britain needs a shorter-hours culture

by the Sandwichman

David Spencer in the Guardian
this morning echoes two of the Sandwichman's favorite talking points:
In a letter to the poet TS Eliot in 1945, he [Keynes] suggested that unemployment could be lowered by the reduction in working time. Indeed for Keynes this was the "ultimate solution" to the unemployment problem. Reducing work time not only extended the time during which workers could spend income and hence generate employment, but it also allowed jobs to be spread out more evenly across the available workforce, thereby reducing unemployment.
and...
Orthodox economic theory teaches that those who argue for shorter working time succumb to the "lump of labour fallacy". This is the idea that there is a fixed amount of work to be done in society, so any reduction in work hours must increase the number of available jobs. It is argued by orthodox economists that the amount of work is not fixed and that reductions in work time will simply add to firms' costs. But the above fallacy is not wholly persuasive. If reduced hours encourage people to work more efficiently, then the effect may be to lower prices and to increase the demand for goods and services and in turn the demand for labour.

UK Government Adopts Nationalization of Troubled Banks

Bloomberg reports that Gordon Brown has been listening to economists:

Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s government tightened its grip on Britain’s financial system, guaranteeing toxic assets and giving the Bank of England unprecedented power to buy securities. The plan will increase the cost of bailing out the nation’s banks by at least 100 billion pounds ($147 billion), the Treasury said in a statement today. The government raised its stake in Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc to 70 percent and said it would use Northern Rock Plc to spur mortgage lending. “This is aiming to once and for all underpin faith in the banking system,” said Alan Clarke, an economist at BNP Paribas SA in London. “We’re breaking all conventions. The availability of credit is going down and the economic outlook is getting worse, so the government is having to throw more and more at it.” The new measures are the biggest steps by Brown to get banks lending again as Britain slides deeper into a recession that may be the worst since the aftermath of World War II. The government will require aid recipients to sign “specific and quantified” agreements to lend, reflecting Brown’s frustration at the failure of an October rescue to unlock credit markets.


Felix Salmon looks at the troubles at Bank of America and Citigroup and recommends we adopt nationalization:

Citi and BofA aren't suffering from liquidity problems. They have all the liquidity they need, thanks to the Fed. The problem is one of solvency: the equity markets simply don't believe that the banks' assets are worth more than their liabilities. I can't see a solution to this problem short of nationalizing both Citi and BofA, and summarily firing the hapless Vikram Pandit along with the overambitious Ken Lewis.


But it seems that we Americans are heading down a different route, which Paul Krugman doesn’t like:

On paper, Gotham has $2 trillion in assets and $1.9 trillion in liabilities, so that it has a net worth of $100 billion. But a substantial fraction of its assets — say, $400 billion worth — are mortgage-backed securities and other toxic waste. If the bank tried to sell these assets, it would get no more than $200 billion. So Gotham is a zombie bank: it’s still operating, but the reality is that it has already gone bust. Its stock isn’t totally worthless — it still has a market capitalization of $20 billion — but that value is entirely based on the hope that shareholders will be rescued by a government bailout ... Well, the government could simply give Gotham a couple of hundred billion dollars, enough to make it solvent again. But this would, of course, be a huge gift to Gotham’s current shareholders — and it would also encourage excessive risk-taking in the future. Still, the possibility of such a gift is what’s now supporting Gotham’s stock price. A better approach would be to do what the government did with zombie savings and loans at the end of the 1980s: it seized the defunct banks, cleaning out the shareholders. Then it transferred their bad assets to a special institution, the Resolution Trust Corporation; paid off enough of the banks’ debts to make them solvent; and sold the fixed-up banks to new owners. The current buzz suggests, however, that policy makers aren’t willing to take either of these approaches. Instead, they’re reportedly gravitating toward a compromise approach: moving toxic waste from private banks’ balance sheets to a publicly owned “bad bank” or “aggregator bank” that would resemble the Resolution Trust Corporation, but without seizing the banks first.


Paul notes the American fear of the word nationalization and our willingness to give the troubled banks a gift by buying toxic assets at a “fair” price that exceeds the market value. In my view, this American way is just sheer insanity. We should watch and learn from the actions of the UK government.