Monday, June 16, 2014
U.S. Health Care System Underperforms Despite High Costs
The Commonwealth Fund released its latest report noting that the U.S. spends more per capita on its health care system but underperforms in may categories relative to other major nations. The authors note that their findings were compiled before much of the Affordable Care Act provisions took effect. This June 2014 analysis updated their analysis released in 2010. Let’s just hope we keep making progress so the authors, which the authors can document in their next report.
Saturday, June 14, 2014
The SEC Investigation of the Port Authority and Christie’s Fiscal Record
Whether Governor Christie was behind the closing of the George Washington Bridge has taken a back seat to some local reporting on a Security and Exchange Commission inquiry as to certain decisions made by the Port Authority. One of the recent stories notes:
The SEC investigation is looking at the Port Authority’s justification for diverting $1.8 billion to pay for New Jersey road repair projects at the urging of the Christie administration, people familiar with the matter said. The largest of those projects is the $1 billion upgrade to the Pulaski Skyway, a state-owned bridge that connects Newark and Jersey City and is not operated or maintained by the Port Authority. “The Port Authority has... been advised that the Securities and Exchange Commission is conducting a parallel investigation,” stated a preliminary official statement issued on Thursday, ahead of a $400 million bond offering to pay for ongoing building and maintenance projects. Port Authority attorneys for months resisted funding the Pulaski and other road project on legal grounds in late 2010 and early 2011, The Record reported in March. But the Christie administration continued to pressure agency officials and Port Authority lawyers came up with a creative legal justification, getting around state laws that require the agency to spend money only on its own facilities unless it gets approval from lawmakers in New Jersey and New York. The Port Authority claimed the roadways were access roads to the Lincoln Tunnel, even though they are miles from the tunnel and do not connect to it directly. The SEC is positioned to investigate whether the Port Authority misled investors and bondholders when it stated in official documents that the project was authorized and was connected to one of its facilities. The Manhattan District Attorney’s Office is also investigating whether there was any criminal conduct.Other accounts wonder if Christie’s insistence that the project to have another tunnel from New Jersey to New York City – something that is both desperately needed and part of the Port Authority reach – be shelved in favor of rebuilding this Pulaski Skyway. I have no doubt that the Pulaski Skyway should be rebuilt but the point seems to be that this project should be funded out of the State of New Jersey’s budgets. Perhaps the best story on this comes from a few weeks ago. The blog does not allow me to cut and paste from it so please read how it allowed the Governor to spend more on New Jersey roads without raising gasoline taxes to replenish the “depleted coffers” of New Jersey’s transportation fund. Governor Christie fancies himself an old fashion supply-sider. I agree as much of the supply-side spin is really accounting fraud at best if not downright theft.
Friday, June 13, 2014
War is the Health of the GDP
The headline of Tyler Cowen's Upshot piece, "The Lack of Major Wars May Be Hurting Economic Growth" is calculated to provoke controversy. Cowen's point, though, isn't that we need a war to boost the economy. As he concludes:
Siphoning Off a Part of the Annual Increment of GNP
The lessons drawn from World War II by US policy makers and their advisers stand in stark contrast to those drawn from World War I by Stephen Leacock and prescribed by Keynes during the war. Where Leacock had seen the maintenance of industrial output despite vast withdrawals of manpower from the labor force as a sign of the redundancy of much of that labor force, Leon Keyserling, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Truman, viewed massive spending on armaments as a tonic to stimulate the expansion of economic activity. Keyserling went even further in his calculation of the economic benefits of the preparations for war. In his view, the increased economic activity could produce a "growth dividend" that could be "siphoned off" to pay for the arms. Rearmament would thus be a free lunch that would not only pay for itself but make a down payment on a bargain dinner. This reasoning underpinned National Security Council memorandum, NSC-68, written in 1950 by State Department analyst Paul Nitze. Keyserling supplied the economic vision underlying NSC-68, which represented a "a serious effort to develop a coherent strategy" in response to two distinct but interrelated problems: first, the obstacles to rebuilding an open system of world trade in which the US could sell its exports and second, containment of the Soviet military and political threat.
"With a high level of economic activity," the report assured, "the United States could soon attain a gross national product of $300 billion per year… Progress in this direction would permit, and might itself be aided by, a build up of the economic and military strength of the United States and the free world." The deficit financing of this military build up and subsequent effect of that spending on economic growth meant, in its author's opinion, that the rearmament could occur, "without a decrease in the national standard of living because the required resources could be obtained by siphoning off a part of the annual increment in the gross national product."
Approved months before the outbreak of the Korean War, NSC-68 recommended a massive rearmament program for the U.S. and Western Europe. "Leon Keyserling was very helpful when we wrote NSC-68," author Nitze admitted in a 1986 interview, "He was my principal adviser on the economic parts." Not only did Keyserling advise on the writing of document, but President Truman's special counsel, Charles Murphy called upon him to evaluate the document's economic feasibility. It is unclear whether either Murphy or Truman, were aware of Keyserling's dual role as both advocate and judge of the strategy. Never one to underestimate his own importance, Keyserling described his role as "the one who had introduced the fundamental new factor of the dynamics of economic growth. Now, as I say, I started this circa 1947…"
Because of limits to domestic purchasing power imposed by the market, stabilizing the U.S. economy in the post-war period required the expansion of foreign trade. Although the two goals of economic stabilization and Soviet containment were acknowledged as distinct in NSC-68, the document's rhetoric elevated the political-military conflict to top billing. The memorandum's drafters believed that rearmament could solve both problems while also being easier to sell politically. The economic dilemma arose out of Western Europe's fragile financial condition in the immediate post war period. Wartime devastation of productive capacity in Europe left in its wake immense inflationary pressures, as pent-up demand for goods could not be met by the constricted supply. Europe's international payments position was also weakened, giving rise to exchange controls and other barriers to international transactions in an effort to prevent capital flight.
Meanwhile, widespread conservative and protectionist political sentiment in the U.S. blocked a wholesale expansion of a Marshall Plan-type arrangement of foreign aid and easy credit. The Marshall Plan itself had been a brilliant success in providing a temporary solution to the dollar shortage in Europe. But European restructuring to new patterns of world trade required a long-term continuation of the effort. Changes were needed in European business practices, new institutions for investment planning, regional integration and co-ordination and overcoming of protectionist sentiment in the U.S.
NSC-68 was not based on a compelling analysis of the long-term needs of US capitalism. Instead, it produced politically marketable palliatives to several immediate and pressing problems. The document evaded the hard issues of the inherent weaknesses of liberal capitalism and the difficulty of establishing an open world economy. Instead, it opportunistically projected Western economic frailties onto Soviet military strength. That rhetoric, in Fred Block's opinion, was a short term expedient whose success in overcoming the structural economic problems would presumably render continued use of the Soviet bugbear unnecessary. While it may have made sense as an expedient, it was flawed in that it created an enduring institutional bias in favour of ongoing militarization of U.S. foreign policy. According to Block, "Rearmament became official policy largely because of the absence of coherent alternatives." But the strategy's success in the early 1950s cannot explain the continuing appeal and dominance of its rhetoric. Block argued that the implementation of NSC-68 established or reinforced three institutional structures – NATO, the military-industrial complex and political McCarthyism – that subsequently made it difficult for US policy makers to stray from the logic of militarization.
If the politics of NSC-68 were dubious, the theoretical status of its economic rationale was even more so. During World War II, as mentioned in a previous chapter, John Maynard Keynes had written to T.S. Eliot describing the full-employment policy by means of investment as first aid. It was, he explained, only one application of an intellectual theorem that also included wise consumption and working less. Keyserling's growth economics, however, abandoned any pretence to theory in favor of boosterism of growth, growth and more growth fueled by wasteful consumption and wasteful investment. Economic stimulus through rearmament strategy is best understood as a response to the political difficulties inherent in adopting a genuine full-employment policy, as they had been analyzed by Michal Kalecki in a 1942 Cambridge lecture published the following year as "Political Aspects of Full Employment."
Kalecki had argued that the economic feasibility of maintaining full employment through a policy of government spending was widely accepted by economists, with the exception of "'economic experts' closely connected with banking and industry." As long as there remained unused capacity of labor, production facilities and raw materials, government spending financed by borrowing could proceed without triggering inflation. The reasons for political opposition to a full employment policy, however, are three-fold. First, industrialists dislike government interference in the area of employment because it blunts the political threat – used to indirectly dictate government policy – of warning that one or another policy opposed by business will "undermine business confidence." Second, the scope for government investment is initially narrow – restricted to such facilities as schools, roads and hospitals – but continued pursuit of the policy of government spending would create pressure to expand government involvement into industries like transportation and public utilities that are currently the preserve of private investment. Subsidizing mass consumption is even more strongly scorned because it violates the fundamental moral principle, "that 'you shall earn your bread in sweat' – unless you happen to have private means." The long-term maintenance of full employment is most politically objectionable because it would lead to social and political changes in which the threat of dismissal from employment would cease to be an effective disciplinary measure. Thus, although a full employment strategy could increase profits, its undermining of factory discipline and political stability make it unpalatable to bankers and industrialists.
An exception to this rule of big business opposition to full employment occurs under fascism, where, "the state machinery is under the direct control of a partnership of big business with fascism" and "dislike of government spending, whether on public investment or consumption, is overcome by concentrating government expenditures on armaments." Although this second aspect suggests parallels with NSC-68, there are fundamental differences between fascism and the economic rationale behind the Truman administration's Cold War rearmament strategy. As Kalecki pointed out, "in a democracy, one does not know what the next government will be like. Under fascism there is no next government." This clearly was not the case with NSC-68. Although the memorandum itself remained classified until 1975, its implementation following the outbreak of the Korean War revealed a policy logic that was clear enough to critics of the Truman administration.
Opposition to the rearmament as economic stimulus policy was readily forthcoming during the 1952 presidential election campaign. On the evening of September 23, 1952, General Dwight D. Eisenhower, the Republican nominee for President of the United States, was scheduled to deliver a campaign speech in Cleveland, Ohio. That night however, his running mate, Richard M. Nixon, gave his famous "Checkers" speech defending himself from charges that a political campaign fund established for him was improper. Instead of his originally scheduled address, whose topic was inflation and "false prosperity", Eisenhower substituted his reaction to Nixon's televised appearance. The text of Ike's unspoken speech, however, was published the next day in the Washington Post.
Eisenhower's speech was a sustained polemic expressly directed at the Truman administration policies conceived by Keyserling. Although Ike didn't name the economic policy's architect in the speech, he did the next best thing. He cited with regret the resignation of the Edwin G. Nourse, whom Keyserling succeeded as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors. To anyone familiar with Keyserling's conceptual role with regard to the economics of NSC-68, several passages in Ike's speech stand out as virtual indictments.
"Living in a largely peaceful world with 2 percent G.D.P. growth has some big advantages that you don't get with 4 percent growth and many more war deaths."But there is an underlying logic to Cowen's reductio ad absurdum that I'm not sure he grasps completely. The national income accounts were designed with the idea of paying for war in mind. That actually might make sense during a time of war when you're trying to figure out how to pay for it. But it embeds a social accounting protocol that is incompatible with the absence of war. The predictable results are policies such as the Cold War rearmament based on the premise that arms spending will pay for itself by siphoning off revenues from the additional growth that the spending will stimulate. The Latin term for it is inflatio. Time to recycle a piece from three years ago:
Siphoning Off a Part of the Annual Increment of GNP
The lessons drawn from World War II by US policy makers and their advisers stand in stark contrast to those drawn from World War I by Stephen Leacock and prescribed by Keynes during the war. Where Leacock had seen the maintenance of industrial output despite vast withdrawals of manpower from the labor force as a sign of the redundancy of much of that labor force, Leon Keyserling, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Truman, viewed massive spending on armaments as a tonic to stimulate the expansion of economic activity. Keyserling went even further in his calculation of the economic benefits of the preparations for war. In his view, the increased economic activity could produce a "growth dividend" that could be "siphoned off" to pay for the arms. Rearmament would thus be a free lunch that would not only pay for itself but make a down payment on a bargain dinner. This reasoning underpinned National Security Council memorandum, NSC-68, written in 1950 by State Department analyst Paul Nitze. Keyserling supplied the economic vision underlying NSC-68, which represented a "a serious effort to develop a coherent strategy" in response to two distinct but interrelated problems: first, the obstacles to rebuilding an open system of world trade in which the US could sell its exports and second, containment of the Soviet military and political threat.
"With a high level of economic activity," the report assured, "the United States could soon attain a gross national product of $300 billion per year… Progress in this direction would permit, and might itself be aided by, a build up of the economic and military strength of the United States and the free world." The deficit financing of this military build up and subsequent effect of that spending on economic growth meant, in its author's opinion, that the rearmament could occur, "without a decrease in the national standard of living because the required resources could be obtained by siphoning off a part of the annual increment in the gross national product."
Approved months before the outbreak of the Korean War, NSC-68 recommended a massive rearmament program for the U.S. and Western Europe. "Leon Keyserling was very helpful when we wrote NSC-68," author Nitze admitted in a 1986 interview, "He was my principal adviser on the economic parts." Not only did Keyserling advise on the writing of document, but President Truman's special counsel, Charles Murphy called upon him to evaluate the document's economic feasibility. It is unclear whether either Murphy or Truman, were aware of Keyserling's dual role as both advocate and judge of the strategy. Never one to underestimate his own importance, Keyserling described his role as "the one who had introduced the fundamental new factor of the dynamics of economic growth. Now, as I say, I started this circa 1947…"
Because of limits to domestic purchasing power imposed by the market, stabilizing the U.S. economy in the post-war period required the expansion of foreign trade. Although the two goals of economic stabilization and Soviet containment were acknowledged as distinct in NSC-68, the document's rhetoric elevated the political-military conflict to top billing. The memorandum's drafters believed that rearmament could solve both problems while also being easier to sell politically. The economic dilemma arose out of Western Europe's fragile financial condition in the immediate post war period. Wartime devastation of productive capacity in Europe left in its wake immense inflationary pressures, as pent-up demand for goods could not be met by the constricted supply. Europe's international payments position was also weakened, giving rise to exchange controls and other barriers to international transactions in an effort to prevent capital flight.
Meanwhile, widespread conservative and protectionist political sentiment in the U.S. blocked a wholesale expansion of a Marshall Plan-type arrangement of foreign aid and easy credit. The Marshall Plan itself had been a brilliant success in providing a temporary solution to the dollar shortage in Europe. But European restructuring to new patterns of world trade required a long-term continuation of the effort. Changes were needed in European business practices, new institutions for investment planning, regional integration and co-ordination and overcoming of protectionist sentiment in the U.S.
NSC-68 was not based on a compelling analysis of the long-term needs of US capitalism. Instead, it produced politically marketable palliatives to several immediate and pressing problems. The document evaded the hard issues of the inherent weaknesses of liberal capitalism and the difficulty of establishing an open world economy. Instead, it opportunistically projected Western economic frailties onto Soviet military strength. That rhetoric, in Fred Block's opinion, was a short term expedient whose success in overcoming the structural economic problems would presumably render continued use of the Soviet bugbear unnecessary. While it may have made sense as an expedient, it was flawed in that it created an enduring institutional bias in favour of ongoing militarization of U.S. foreign policy. According to Block, "Rearmament became official policy largely because of the absence of coherent alternatives." But the strategy's success in the early 1950s cannot explain the continuing appeal and dominance of its rhetoric. Block argued that the implementation of NSC-68 established or reinforced three institutional structures – NATO, the military-industrial complex and political McCarthyism – that subsequently made it difficult for US policy makers to stray from the logic of militarization.
If the politics of NSC-68 were dubious, the theoretical status of its economic rationale was even more so. During World War II, as mentioned in a previous chapter, John Maynard Keynes had written to T.S. Eliot describing the full-employment policy by means of investment as first aid. It was, he explained, only one application of an intellectual theorem that also included wise consumption and working less. Keyserling's growth economics, however, abandoned any pretence to theory in favor of boosterism of growth, growth and more growth fueled by wasteful consumption and wasteful investment. Economic stimulus through rearmament strategy is best understood as a response to the political difficulties inherent in adopting a genuine full-employment policy, as they had been analyzed by Michal Kalecki in a 1942 Cambridge lecture published the following year as "Political Aspects of Full Employment."
Kalecki had argued that the economic feasibility of maintaining full employment through a policy of government spending was widely accepted by economists, with the exception of "'economic experts' closely connected with banking and industry." As long as there remained unused capacity of labor, production facilities and raw materials, government spending financed by borrowing could proceed without triggering inflation. The reasons for political opposition to a full employment policy, however, are three-fold. First, industrialists dislike government interference in the area of employment because it blunts the political threat – used to indirectly dictate government policy – of warning that one or another policy opposed by business will "undermine business confidence." Second, the scope for government investment is initially narrow – restricted to such facilities as schools, roads and hospitals – but continued pursuit of the policy of government spending would create pressure to expand government involvement into industries like transportation and public utilities that are currently the preserve of private investment. Subsidizing mass consumption is even more strongly scorned because it violates the fundamental moral principle, "that 'you shall earn your bread in sweat' – unless you happen to have private means." The long-term maintenance of full employment is most politically objectionable because it would lead to social and political changes in which the threat of dismissal from employment would cease to be an effective disciplinary measure. Thus, although a full employment strategy could increase profits, its undermining of factory discipline and political stability make it unpalatable to bankers and industrialists.
An exception to this rule of big business opposition to full employment occurs under fascism, where, "the state machinery is under the direct control of a partnership of big business with fascism" and "dislike of government spending, whether on public investment or consumption, is overcome by concentrating government expenditures on armaments." Although this second aspect suggests parallels with NSC-68, there are fundamental differences between fascism and the economic rationale behind the Truman administration's Cold War rearmament strategy. As Kalecki pointed out, "in a democracy, one does not know what the next government will be like. Under fascism there is no next government." This clearly was not the case with NSC-68. Although the memorandum itself remained classified until 1975, its implementation following the outbreak of the Korean War revealed a policy logic that was clear enough to critics of the Truman administration.
Opposition to the rearmament as economic stimulus policy was readily forthcoming during the 1952 presidential election campaign. On the evening of September 23, 1952, General Dwight D. Eisenhower, the Republican nominee for President of the United States, was scheduled to deliver a campaign speech in Cleveland, Ohio. That night however, his running mate, Richard M. Nixon, gave his famous "Checkers" speech defending himself from charges that a political campaign fund established for him was improper. Instead of his originally scheduled address, whose topic was inflation and "false prosperity", Eisenhower substituted his reaction to Nixon's televised appearance. The text of Ike's unspoken speech, however, was published the next day in the Washington Post.
Eisenhower's speech was a sustained polemic expressly directed at the Truman administration policies conceived by Keyserling. Although Ike didn't name the economic policy's architect in the speech, he did the next best thing. He cited with regret the resignation of the Edwin G. Nourse, whom Keyserling succeeded as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors. To anyone familiar with Keyserling's conceptual role with regard to the economics of NSC-68, several passages in Ike's speech stand out as virtual indictments.
"The inflation we suffer is not an accident; it is a policy. It is not, as the Administration would have us believe some queer and deadly kind of economic bacteria breathed into the atmosphere by Soviet communism... The point and purpose of this policy I have already indicated: to fool the people with a deceptive prosperity. The method is very simple: to give more people more money that is worth less..."Furthermore Eisenhower identified the mainspring of that inflationary policy as the production of armaments:
"There is in certain quarters the view that national prosperity depends on the production of armaments and that any reduction in arms output might bring on another recession. Does this mean, then that the continued failure of our foreign policy is the only way to pay for the failure of our fiscal policy? According to this way of thinking, the success of our foreign policy would mean a depression."In contrast to the scorned Truman administration policy, Eisenhower cited Thomas Jefferson's praise of governmental frugality: "If we can prevent government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them, they must become happy."
Thursday, June 12, 2014
Brat And The Path Of The Virginia (And National) Republican Party
Today in the Washington Post, George Will began his column remarking on how Congressman Robert Goodlatte (R-VA) said in the wake of David Brat upsetting Eric Cantor in their primary, that the House Republicans need "to take a stop and a deep breath until we find out how everyone reacts to this." Now, Goodlatte, aside from being my Congressman (and I have met him on several occasions) is not just some random House member. He is Chair of the House Judiciary Committee that has jurisdiction over immigration reform. Goodlatte in his law career in the past has actually helped out immigrants in legal trouble, and he has been making noises about working out some sort of limited immigration reform. But all this taking a deep breath after Brat's win running on a strongly anti-immigration reform platform is likely to lead Goodlatte to decide that nothing will be done on this issue, at least in this Congress. There is more to this, and this will follow up on a post I put up last fall before the election about the history of the GOP in Virginia.
So, this gets personal for Goodlatte. Our district, the Sixth, is not only adjacent to the Seventh, where Brat just upended the supposedly safe Cantor, but is also probably its rival for being "the most Republican district in the state," as I described the Sixth in a post yesterday on Brat's economics. Like Cantor, Goodlatte's greatest potential electoral threat is not from some Democratic opponent, but from a Tea Party supported candidate on the right, and indeed in the last few days certain prominent local tea party types have made loud noises on local talk radio shows about how awful Goodlatte is and how he should follow Cantor out the door because of his playing along with possible immigration reform. He has good reason to be looking over his shoulder, although as I argued earlier, the Shenandoah Valley is perhaps not quite as bad on such matters as the eastern parts of Cantor's district down in the old racist Byrd Machine Tidewater, given the old history here of being pro-civil rights and of moderate Mountain Valley Republicanism, now nearly dead, if still sputtering in a few corners (although Emmet Hanger's effort to come up with a compromise to extend Medicaid here looks to be about dead).
In any case, this current situation highlights again the historic shift from being pro-civil rights (and anti-slavery in the days of Mr. Lincoln, from which period the Republicanness of the Shenandoah Valley dated) to being the racists in today's politics, and I shall make no bones about the fact that I consider anti-immigrant attitudes to be at bottom racist, accepting the studies I have seen that immigration is good for the economy and even for wages and employment of lower paid and skilled workers, contrary to widely held opinion (so, right, not everybody anti-immigrant is racist, but the real fury of those going out to vote on this is). Here is how this shift has gone down around here.
If we go back 40 years, we find that the occupant of Congressman Goodlatte's seat was a good Mountain Valley Republican, M. Caldwell Butler of Roanoke. At that time Butler became well known for serving on the House Judiciary Committee when he became one of the first Republican members of the committee to support impeaching Richard Nixon for Watergate. Prior to retiring from his seat in 1983, Butler would support some civil rights legislation, including one about diversity in the judiciary. This was appropriate stuff for a classic old style Mountain Valley Republican congressman.
When Butler retired, he made clear that he supported as his successor in the 1982 election then state Senator Ray Garland, another moderate Mountain Valley type, also from Roanoke. However, Harrisonburg (where I live) had been moved into the district, and a strong supporter of more conservative Ronald Reagan decided he would oppose this laying on of hands by Butler of Garland. This person was a friend of mine, a now-retired Accounting professor from JMU, Kevin Miller. Miller managed to get the nomination, thereby alienating the Butler/Roanoke Republicans. This opened the door to an actual victory by a Dem in the district, retired GE VP, the late Jim Olin, whom I also knew, with 82 a bad year for the GOP electionwise. Part of his support came from the Roanoke business community, many of whom knew him and were angry about this conservative upstart from Harrisonburg pushing their guy aside. Olin served three terms before stepping down (health problems that did him in), only to be succeeded by Goodlatte, who is of Roanoke, thus re-establishing the old rule, although moving more to the right than Butler was.
Kevin Miller would later get himself elected as state Senator from Harrisonburg. While he was a Reagan Republican and not really a Mountain Valley one, he was not a racist and also knew how to count, being a former Accounting professor. He would end up on the state Senate Finance Committee, and when GOP Governor James Gilmore began to listen to Grover Norquist and wanted to cut taxes without cutting spending, Miller would be one of those on the Senate finance committee who would resist Gilmore's budgets and stymied him. This group were attacked by Gilmore's supporters as being "liberals high taxers" and so on and so forth. Kevin Miller could count, and his becoming "the enemy" is a sign indeed that if Ronald Reagan was around now, he would get purged from the Republican Party.
When Kevin Miller stepped down from his Senate seat, he would be replaced by Mark Obenshain, considerably more conservative than he, who would be the GOP nominee for governor last year. But, even though he was to the right of Miller, he was to the left of his running mates, all of whom lost last fall, although Obenshain is still around in the state Senate. Obanschain has not been a friend of immingration reform.
Which is all parallel and prelude to what has just happened, with an established Republican who was playing as a leader at the national level of tea party types in the House of Representatives simply not being racist enough or pure enough to avoid getting wiped by the purer. So, Goodlatte, along with many others of his colleagues are taking deep breaths preparing to react by doing nothing on immigration reform, nothing at all. No more Mountain Valley Republicans here!
Barkley Rosser
So, this gets personal for Goodlatte. Our district, the Sixth, is not only adjacent to the Seventh, where Brat just upended the supposedly safe Cantor, but is also probably its rival for being "the most Republican district in the state," as I described the Sixth in a post yesterday on Brat's economics. Like Cantor, Goodlatte's greatest potential electoral threat is not from some Democratic opponent, but from a Tea Party supported candidate on the right, and indeed in the last few days certain prominent local tea party types have made loud noises on local talk radio shows about how awful Goodlatte is and how he should follow Cantor out the door because of his playing along with possible immigration reform. He has good reason to be looking over his shoulder, although as I argued earlier, the Shenandoah Valley is perhaps not quite as bad on such matters as the eastern parts of Cantor's district down in the old racist Byrd Machine Tidewater, given the old history here of being pro-civil rights and of moderate Mountain Valley Republicanism, now nearly dead, if still sputtering in a few corners (although Emmet Hanger's effort to come up with a compromise to extend Medicaid here looks to be about dead).
In any case, this current situation highlights again the historic shift from being pro-civil rights (and anti-slavery in the days of Mr. Lincoln, from which period the Republicanness of the Shenandoah Valley dated) to being the racists in today's politics, and I shall make no bones about the fact that I consider anti-immigrant attitudes to be at bottom racist, accepting the studies I have seen that immigration is good for the economy and even for wages and employment of lower paid and skilled workers, contrary to widely held opinion (so, right, not everybody anti-immigrant is racist, but the real fury of those going out to vote on this is). Here is how this shift has gone down around here.
If we go back 40 years, we find that the occupant of Congressman Goodlatte's seat was a good Mountain Valley Republican, M. Caldwell Butler of Roanoke. At that time Butler became well known for serving on the House Judiciary Committee when he became one of the first Republican members of the committee to support impeaching Richard Nixon for Watergate. Prior to retiring from his seat in 1983, Butler would support some civil rights legislation, including one about diversity in the judiciary. This was appropriate stuff for a classic old style Mountain Valley Republican congressman.
When Butler retired, he made clear that he supported as his successor in the 1982 election then state Senator Ray Garland, another moderate Mountain Valley type, also from Roanoke. However, Harrisonburg (where I live) had been moved into the district, and a strong supporter of more conservative Ronald Reagan decided he would oppose this laying on of hands by Butler of Garland. This person was a friend of mine, a now-retired Accounting professor from JMU, Kevin Miller. Miller managed to get the nomination, thereby alienating the Butler/Roanoke Republicans. This opened the door to an actual victory by a Dem in the district, retired GE VP, the late Jim Olin, whom I also knew, with 82 a bad year for the GOP electionwise. Part of his support came from the Roanoke business community, many of whom knew him and were angry about this conservative upstart from Harrisonburg pushing their guy aside. Olin served three terms before stepping down (health problems that did him in), only to be succeeded by Goodlatte, who is of Roanoke, thus re-establishing the old rule, although moving more to the right than Butler was.
Kevin Miller would later get himself elected as state Senator from Harrisonburg. While he was a Reagan Republican and not really a Mountain Valley one, he was not a racist and also knew how to count, being a former Accounting professor. He would end up on the state Senate Finance Committee, and when GOP Governor James Gilmore began to listen to Grover Norquist and wanted to cut taxes without cutting spending, Miller would be one of those on the Senate finance committee who would resist Gilmore's budgets and stymied him. This group were attacked by Gilmore's supporters as being "liberals high taxers" and so on and so forth. Kevin Miller could count, and his becoming "the enemy" is a sign indeed that if Ronald Reagan was around now, he would get purged from the Republican Party.
When Kevin Miller stepped down from his Senate seat, he would be replaced by Mark Obenshain, considerably more conservative than he, who would be the GOP nominee for governor last year. But, even though he was to the right of Miller, he was to the left of his running mates, all of whom lost last fall, although Obenshain is still around in the state Senate. Obanschain has not been a friend of immingration reform.
Which is all parallel and prelude to what has just happened, with an established Republican who was playing as a leader at the national level of tea party types in the House of Representatives simply not being racist enough or pure enough to avoid getting wiped by the purer. So, Goodlatte, along with many others of his colleagues are taking deep breaths preparing to react by doing nothing on immigration reform, nothing at all. No more Mountain Valley Republicans here!
Barkley Rosser
Migrating Intangible Assets for Pennies on the Dollar – Lawyers Say the Darndest Things
I likely would not get much of an argument from most sensible people if I suggested that U.S. based multinationals have shifted a lot of profits to offshore tax havens by selling their intangible assets for pennies on the dollar. Of course, some lawyers make their livings defending these transfer pricing schemes and some economist (such as Bill Morgan) might dare to object. It seems a couple of these lawyers believe it is their professional duty to ridicule any economist who might so object:
Those of us of a certain vintage may recall the old Art Linklater radio/television program, “House Party,” which had a recurring, humorous feature known as Kids Say the Darndest Things in which Art posed various questions to young children. (The series, which ran from 1945 to 1969, was also resurrected and reprised by Bill Cosby in the late 1990s.) The answers were hilarious as the kids often didn’t understand the question asked, misinterpreted the question or just flat out engaged their wonderful imaginations. The incongruity between the questions and answers gave rise to many smiles and chuckles. The authors recently were reminded of this show while reading the comments made by Bill Morgan, the Senior Economic Adviser to the APMA Program, at a Bloomberg BNA function in July 2013. In particular, we read with interest Morgan’s lament over the Tax Court’s opinion in VERITAS Software Corp. v. Commissioner.Feel free to read their little opinion letter and judge for yourself the merits of the particular case. But I guess economists who actually try to tell the truth are subject to scorn from the legal profession when that truth challenges their client’s tax avoidance. But as Barry Ritholtz notes there appears to be no penalty for economists championing the rich via dubious if not deceptive claims.
Wednesday, June 11, 2014
The Peculiar Political Economy of David Alan Brat
As probably just about everybody reading this by now knows, the Republican Majority Leader of the US House of Representatives, Eric Cantor, was defeated in a primary by David Alan Brat, Professor of Economics at Randolph Macon College in Ashland, Virginia. Brat has served as Department Chair since 2005, directs a BB&T funded Center on Morality Foundations of Capitalism, and who has served on a Virginia state economic development council. Brat ran on a platform that emphasized his strongly anti-immigrant position as well as his strict position on balanced budgets, denouncing Cantor for supporting an increase in the federal debt ceiling. Some reports had him being an admirer of Austrian economics, but it turns out that the political economy of David Alan Brat is far more complicated and not at all clearly Austrian.
What appears to be the deepest key and theme of his views involves religion. He received a Masters degree in theology from the Princeton Theological Seminary in 1990, where he apparently entertained critical views of Milton Friedman's approach to theoretical econimics, which he considered to be sorely lacking in ethics. Following up on this he pursued a PhD in economics at American University, a department widely considered to be of a somewhat leftish and heterodox orientation. His dissertation was entitled "Human Capital, Religion, and Economic Growth," with Walter Park and Jim Weaver as co-chairs, and John Willouhby and John Wisman as committee members. It was completed in 1996, and he published two papers from it, coauthored with Walter Park.
The first in 1995 was "A Global Kuznets Curve," in Kyklos, which has been cited 44 times. Arguing for directly global measures of inequality along the lines pursued by Branko Milanovic at the World Bank, where Brat spent some time then, it could have been written by Thomas Piketty. In 1996 he published with Park, "Cross-country R&D and Growth: Variations on Theme of Mankiw-Romer-Weil" in the Eastern Economic Journal, cited 8 times. A theme of his work was how R&D affects global income distribution. The third part of his dissertation was about religion in Britain, France, and Germany a century ago and economic growth, with arguments resembling those of Max Weber. Papers drawn from it would be published later in the Virginia Economic Journal.
I can attest that members of his department say that he was a quiet and good student in the early 90s who did not exhibit any particular political views. He has recently declared that he stood against the "power elites" at AU back then, but, needless to say, these largely leftish heterodox profs find this characterization of them highly amusing.
He obtained his job at Randolph Macon in 1996, where he has been ever since, despite some visits to other places. During the late 90s he moved from his interest in human capital to studying labor markets and education, initially focusing on local governments and education and Tiebout effects. He has continued to study education issues, but after 2000 he increasingly moved back towards his concerns with religion and economics. Increasingly this involved a more strongly pro-laissez faire attitude, with the work of Deirdre McCloskey on the morality of capitalism an influence, particularly in an unpublished book he has written. Nearly all his papers since then have appeared in two outlets: the Virginia Economic Journal, which is the journal of the small Virginia Economic Association, and whose long time editor, Barry Pfitzner, has been a member of his department for 31 years. The other outlet is something that does not appear to be a refereed journal and which I have never heard of, Proceedings of the Southeast Decision Sciences, and one paper in another journal I know nothing of, Intepretation.
Here are recent publications of his:
"Adam Smith's God and the End of Economics," Virginia Economic Journal, 2005
"Human Capital in Eastern Europe: Revised Determinants of Student Test Scores," Proceedings of the Southeast Decision Sciences, 2010.
"God and Advanced Mammon - Can Theological Types Handle Usury and Capitalism," Intepretation, 2011.
He also has a recent unpublished paper entitled, "An Analysis of the Moral Foundations in Ayn Rand." I note that BB&T former CEO and current Director of the Cato Institute, where Brat has spoken, is very much a fan of Ayn Rand. Needless to say, there are some ironies here, given that Rand was both an atheist and an immigrant.
I would conclude by noting that he has no clear links with Austrian economists or economics, with many more Hayekian oriented types upset by his anti-immigrant views, even though these would be consistent with what one finds held by some at the Ludwig von Mises Institute in Auburn, founded by the late Murray Rothbard. However, as near as I can tell, Brat has never had anything to do with the LvMI.
So, while he has to overcome a sociology prof from RMC, Jack Trammell, the Democratic nominee, it is likely that Brat will be the next Congressman from the Seventh District of Virginia, one of the most Republican districts in the state. What he will do or where his views will evolve remains to be seen. But one should at a minimum expect to hear more from him about religion and economics.
BTW, as near as I can tell he has never written anything professional on the matters that he has ridden as hobby horses to his political win: immigration and balanced budgets.
Barkley Rosser
What appears to be the deepest key and theme of his views involves religion. He received a Masters degree in theology from the Princeton Theological Seminary in 1990, where he apparently entertained critical views of Milton Friedman's approach to theoretical econimics, which he considered to be sorely lacking in ethics. Following up on this he pursued a PhD in economics at American University, a department widely considered to be of a somewhat leftish and heterodox orientation. His dissertation was entitled "Human Capital, Religion, and Economic Growth," with Walter Park and Jim Weaver as co-chairs, and John Willouhby and John Wisman as committee members. It was completed in 1996, and he published two papers from it, coauthored with Walter Park.
The first in 1995 was "A Global Kuznets Curve," in Kyklos, which has been cited 44 times. Arguing for directly global measures of inequality along the lines pursued by Branko Milanovic at the World Bank, where Brat spent some time then, it could have been written by Thomas Piketty. In 1996 he published with Park, "Cross-country R&D and Growth: Variations on Theme of Mankiw-Romer-Weil" in the Eastern Economic Journal, cited 8 times. A theme of his work was how R&D affects global income distribution. The third part of his dissertation was about religion in Britain, France, and Germany a century ago and economic growth, with arguments resembling those of Max Weber. Papers drawn from it would be published later in the Virginia Economic Journal.
I can attest that members of his department say that he was a quiet and good student in the early 90s who did not exhibit any particular political views. He has recently declared that he stood against the "power elites" at AU back then, but, needless to say, these largely leftish heterodox profs find this characterization of them highly amusing.
He obtained his job at Randolph Macon in 1996, where he has been ever since, despite some visits to other places. During the late 90s he moved from his interest in human capital to studying labor markets and education, initially focusing on local governments and education and Tiebout effects. He has continued to study education issues, but after 2000 he increasingly moved back towards his concerns with religion and economics. Increasingly this involved a more strongly pro-laissez faire attitude, with the work of Deirdre McCloskey on the morality of capitalism an influence, particularly in an unpublished book he has written. Nearly all his papers since then have appeared in two outlets: the Virginia Economic Journal, which is the journal of the small Virginia Economic Association, and whose long time editor, Barry Pfitzner, has been a member of his department for 31 years. The other outlet is something that does not appear to be a refereed journal and which I have never heard of, Proceedings of the Southeast Decision Sciences, and one paper in another journal I know nothing of, Intepretation.
Here are recent publications of his:
"Adam Smith's God and the End of Economics," Virginia Economic Journal, 2005
"Human Capital in Eastern Europe: Revised Determinants of Student Test Scores," Proceedings of the Southeast Decision Sciences, 2010.
"God and Advanced Mammon - Can Theological Types Handle Usury and Capitalism," Intepretation, 2011.
He also has a recent unpublished paper entitled, "An Analysis of the Moral Foundations in Ayn Rand." I note that BB&T former CEO and current Director of the Cato Institute, where Brat has spoken, is very much a fan of Ayn Rand. Needless to say, there are some ironies here, given that Rand was both an atheist and an immigrant.
I would conclude by noting that he has no clear links with Austrian economists or economics, with many more Hayekian oriented types upset by his anti-immigrant views, even though these would be consistent with what one finds held by some at the Ludwig von Mises Institute in Auburn, founded by the late Murray Rothbard. However, as near as I can tell, Brat has never had anything to do with the LvMI.
So, while he has to overcome a sociology prof from RMC, Jack Trammell, the Democratic nominee, it is likely that Brat will be the next Congressman from the Seventh District of Virginia, one of the most Republican districts in the state. What he will do or where his views will evolve remains to be seen. But one should at a minimum expect to hear more from him about religion and economics.
BTW, as near as I can tell he has never written anything professional on the matters that he has ridden as hobby horses to his political win: immigration and balanced budgets.
Barkley Rosser
Paul Davidson To Step Down As JPKE Editor
In 1978 Paul Davidson and the late Sidney Weintraub co-founded the Journal of Post Keynesian Economics. It has been announced that Davidson is about to step down from his editorial position. Some years ago, his former student, Jan Kregel became a coeditor with Paul. Randall Wray, former student of Hyman Minsky, will replace Davidson as coeditor.
Paul Davidson has long been known as a man of very strong and distinctive views, the acknowledged leader of the so-called "fundamentalist Keynes-Post Keynesian" school of thought, known for emphasizing the role of fundamental uncertainty and Keynesian monetary theory in economic analysis. While he has forcefully advocated these views over the decades, it must be noted that he has always treated other views fairly in terms of publishing in the JPKE.
Whatever one thinks of either Post Keynesian (or post-Keynesian, or whichever spelling) economics, or the journal that Paul Davidson has edited for so long, he will be missed.
Barkley Rosser
Addendum: I have just learned that Paul Davidson has not agreed to this. There is an effort by Sharpe to push him out against his will. There was an effort to do this three years ago, which failed. This is now up in the air, and I apologize to one and all for posting something I should have waited longer to see if it was for real or not.
Paul Davidson has long been known as a man of very strong and distinctive views, the acknowledged leader of the so-called "fundamentalist Keynes-Post Keynesian" school of thought, known for emphasizing the role of fundamental uncertainty and Keynesian monetary theory in economic analysis. While he has forcefully advocated these views over the decades, it must be noted that he has always treated other views fairly in terms of publishing in the JPKE.
Whatever one thinks of either Post Keynesian (or post-Keynesian, or whichever spelling) economics, or the journal that Paul Davidson has edited for so long, he will be missed.
Barkley Rosser
Addendum: I have just learned that Paul Davidson has not agreed to this. There is an effort by Sharpe to push him out against his will. There was an effort to do this three years ago, which failed. This is now up in the air, and I apologize to one and all for posting something I should have waited longer to see if it was for real or not.
"Luddite" Larry and the Downward Ramp of Opportunity
"...unless one regards envy as a virtue," writes Lawrence H. Summers in a column at the Financial Times, "the primary reason for concern about inequality is that lower- and middle-income workers have too little – not that the rich have too much."
Back in the days of Pope Gregory and Dante Alighieri, there were seven deadly sins, not one. Avarice, gluttony and pride were among them. Might we not have as much condescending solicitude for the souls of the rich as for those of the poor and middle class?
Summers argues that the policy impacts which matter most have more to do with health and opportunity for children than with income or wealth inequality. The subheading of his column is "The differences between the rich and everyone else are about health and opportunity." Along the way, though, he quietly substitutes educational achievement for opportunity and concludes:
Than depends. Is educational achievement really the same as opportunity for children? Not according to research highlighted by Thomas Edsall in an Op-Ed, The Downward Ramp, at the NYT:
In his reflections on his undergraduate education, Summers didn't connect the dots between the Luddite mythology and what Keynes supposedly "got wrong" in his "Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren." Instead he offered the following anachronism:
*Marty FeldSTEIN -- not to be confused with Marty FeldMAN as Igor ("it's pronounced eye-gore") in "Young FrankenSTEIN" -- was Larry Summers's mentor.
Back in the days of Pope Gregory and Dante Alighieri, there were seven deadly sins, not one. Avarice, gluttony and pride were among them. Might we not have as much condescending solicitude for the souls of the rich as for those of the poor and middle class?
Summers argues that the policy impacts which matter most have more to do with health and opportunity for children than with income or wealth inequality. The subheading of his column is "The differences between the rich and everyone else are about health and opportunity." Along the way, though, he quietly substitutes educational achievement for opportunity and concludes:
It would be a tragedy if this new focus on inequality and on great fortunes diverted attention from the most fundamental tasks of any democratic society – supporting the health and education of all its citizens.Who could be against health or education?
Than depends. Is educational achievement really the same as opportunity for children? Not according to research highlighted by Thomas Edsall in an Op-Ed, The Downward Ramp, at the NYT:
...evidence produced by Paul Beaudry and David A. Green of the University of British Columbia, and Ben Sand of York University, demonstrates that the collapse, between 1980 and 2000, of mid-level, mid-pay jobs — gutted by automation or foreign competition (and often both) — has now spread to the high-skill labor market.
The U-shaped pattern of job growth characteristic of recent decades – strong at the top and bottom, but weak throughout the middle — has now become “a bit more like a downward ramp,” according to David Autor, an economist at M.I.T. who documented the decline in mid-level jobs in the 1980s and 1990s.
...
"Many higher skilled workers have moved down the occupation ladder and accepted less challenging employment," Beaudry wrote in an emailed response to my inquiry about this development. "This movement down has been very detrimental to the low skilled, as higher skilled workers have taken many of 'their' jobs."Not to worry, though. Allister Heath cheerily reassures us in a column at The Telegraph, "Capitalism is a process of creative destruction... It's scary but it works."
The faster the mechanisation process, the more likely we are to see productivity – the amount of output each worker generates – starting to grow again and, with it, wages. A greater use of artificial intelligence throughout the economy will benefit, not hurt, the overall workforce. ...it will be vital to help individuals displaced by the new technologies to find work in new areas. Better education and training will become even more vital.
The lump of labour fallacy is the oldest myth in economics. There is no fixed stock of jobs; in a dynamic economy, millions of new ones are created every year to replace the equally large numbers that are lost. The luddites are as wrong today as they were two centuries ago.One reader asks, though:
Given that technology has replaced so many jobs the obvious question is why we are still working such long hours? We don't seem to have taken advantage of technology in the ways predicted by nineteenth century thinkers.As fate will have, Summers addressed both Luddites and long hours last July in his 2013 Martin Feldstein* Lecture, "Economic Possibilities for Our Children."
When I was an MIT undergraduate in the early 1970s, a young economics student was exposed to the debate about automation. There were two factions in those debates. There were the stupid Luddite people, who mostly were outside of economics departments, and there were the smart progressive people, who at that time were personified by Bob Solow. The stupid people thought that automation was going to make all the jobs go away and there wasn't going to be any work to do. And the smart people understood that when more was produced, there would be more income and therefore there would be more demand. It wasn't possible that all the jobs would go away, so automation was a blessing. I was taught that the smart people were right. Until a few years ago, I didn't think this was a very complicated subject; the Luddites were wrong and the believers in technology and technological progress were right. I'm not so completely certain now.One might quibble that it's more than a matter of "changing sides" in the debate about automation as framed by the economics departments. This was no debate but a set piece demolition by the "smart people" of straw man arguments that had little to do with the real issues. Incidentally, the smart people at MIT -- presumably Keynesian Synthesists like "Uncle Paul" Samuelson -- appear to have been teaching the vulgar version of Say's Law, "supply creates its own demand," that Keynes repudiated.
In his reflections on his undergraduate education, Summers didn't connect the dots between the Luddite mythology and what Keynes supposedly "got wrong" in his "Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren." Instead he offered the following anachronism:
But Keynes also got some things wrong. He predicted that as incomes rose eightfold, the workweek would fall to 15 or 20 hours. The reason he got that wrong is something that I hadn’t previously reflected on.
When I took introductory economics, a big feature of the textbook was the backward bending labor supply curve, where it was explained that past a certain point, the income effect took over from the substitution effect and so the labor supply curve bent backwards. This does not get much attention in textbooks today. The reason is that people with higher wages now work more hours than people with lower wages. The time series tracks the cross section. Over time, as we have all gotten richer, the number of hours worked for many people has risen.
That backward-bending labor supply curve was indeed a big feature of the textbook when Summers took introductory economics. It wasn't in 1930, when the essay was first published, nor in 1928 when it was delivered as a talk to the Political Economy Club at Cambridge.
The confluence of mythology and anachronism in Larry Summers's education has more than pedantic relevance. As his casual reference to the platitude that Summers may not have even recognized as Say's Law suggests, his miseducation (or myth-education) on history of economic thought has theoretical consequences. And of course, Summers is not alone in his "delightful abundance of aberrations."
The creature that emerges from this anachronistic, mythological bend-over-backward Luddite lump-of-labor supply swamp is not "modern economics" any more than George Washington cutting down a cherry tree with a laser beam is "American history" It is that hoary old "magazine of untruth" masquerading as economics.
*Marty FeldSTEIN -- not to be confused with Marty FeldMAN as Igor ("it's pronounced eye-gore") in "Young FrankenSTEIN" -- was Larry Summers's mentor.
Tuesday, June 10, 2014
Thomas Hobbes, Call Your Office!
I just happened to notice a car with an Arkansas license plate, upon which we find Arkansas touted as "THE NATURAL STATE." Not quite STATE OF NATURE, granted, but close enough, as we say, for folk music. Readers, Is life in Arkansas nasty? brutish? short? And where is the state bold enough to take a stand with Burke, with Mill, and of course with Hobbes himself, and proclaim proudly on its plate:
YOUR STATE NAME HERE
"STATE OF ARTIFICE"
YOUR STATE NAME HERE
"STATE OF ARTIFICE"
Saturday, June 7, 2014
From Luhansk To Lugansk To Novorossiya
Today Petro Poroshenko was sworn in as the new president of Ukraine. He is promising to retake military control of the two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, now calling themselves the Donetsk Peoples' Republic and the Lugansk ("Luhansk" in Ukrainian as the western media still calls it, but not as it is called within it) Peoples' Republic. There will probably be a renewed effort by him to make the military effort, but there is good reason to expect that it will fail.
The fatal weakness of the Ukrainian military in the region is that it may have suffered a fatal blow in the last two days, the loss of the main border post between Russia and Luhansk/Lugansk, which will now allow an uninterrupted flow of men and material into the breakaway republics. It is now known that major leaders of those self-proclaimed rebel regimes are in fact Russian nationals, some claiming to be "volunteers" to prevent any linking with Putin, and he has withdrawn most of his troops from the border, so nobody can accuse him of directly invading. This is very much an imitation of what he did in Crimea, and with the border post now in control of his people, it will be like in Crimea where the Russian military could easily supply and support from its bases the unofficial Russian military who gained control.
So, the next question will be whether or not these two self-proclaimed republics will remain two or eventually unite into one, presumably dominated by more populous Donetsk, which would probably call itself "Novorossiya" or "New Russia," as various propagandists are calling for, in honor of what all of southern Ukraine extending as far west as Odessa was called in the late1700s when Catherine the Great gained control of that area from the Ottoman Turks. This is the likely outcome, hence, from Luhansk to Lugansk to Novorossiya.
If that is the case, expect them unlike Crimea not to be annexed by Russia, but to join Transdniestria, South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Abkhazia as self-ruling de facto independent states supported by Russia, while unrecognized by pretty much all, or nearly all, the world. I would note that this is not necessarily a bad outcome for them as these states have generally performed about as well economically as their neighbors, and it really is the case that the main export from the area is steel and coal to Russia.
Even though the current rebel leaders are self-appointed, supposedly there will be elections in September. We shall see. As it was, people were not allowed to vote in the Ukrainian presidential election in either of them.
Barkley Rosser
The fatal weakness of the Ukrainian military in the region is that it may have suffered a fatal blow in the last two days, the loss of the main border post between Russia and Luhansk/Lugansk, which will now allow an uninterrupted flow of men and material into the breakaway republics. It is now known that major leaders of those self-proclaimed rebel regimes are in fact Russian nationals, some claiming to be "volunteers" to prevent any linking with Putin, and he has withdrawn most of his troops from the border, so nobody can accuse him of directly invading. This is very much an imitation of what he did in Crimea, and with the border post now in control of his people, it will be like in Crimea where the Russian military could easily supply and support from its bases the unofficial Russian military who gained control.
So, the next question will be whether or not these two self-proclaimed republics will remain two or eventually unite into one, presumably dominated by more populous Donetsk, which would probably call itself "Novorossiya" or "New Russia," as various propagandists are calling for, in honor of what all of southern Ukraine extending as far west as Odessa was called in the late1700s when Catherine the Great gained control of that area from the Ottoman Turks. This is the likely outcome, hence, from Luhansk to Lugansk to Novorossiya.
If that is the case, expect them unlike Crimea not to be annexed by Russia, but to join Transdniestria, South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Abkhazia as self-ruling de facto independent states supported by Russia, while unrecognized by pretty much all, or nearly all, the world. I would note that this is not necessarily a bad outcome for them as these states have generally performed about as well economically as their neighbors, and it really is the case that the main export from the area is steel and coal to Russia.
Even though the current rebel leaders are self-appointed, supposedly there will be elections in September. We shall see. As it was, people were not allowed to vote in the Ukrainian presidential election in either of them.
Barkley Rosser
Thursday, June 5, 2014
Learning about Learning about "New Keynesianism"
Mark Thoma links to Joseph Stiglitz's TIGER Forum 2014 lecture on "Creating a Learning Society":
Is our society learning if what we are taught is "false and misleading"?
May 30, 2014
Dear Professor Stiglitz,
I am conducting historical research on Alfred Marshall's conception of the efficiency wage and how it relates to the contemporary sense of the term. In the course of my research, I have come across a claim that you made in 1984 that I wonder if you could clarify. You wrote, in "Theories of Wage Rigidity" (1984): "It is widely recognized that the assumption that wages are rigid is central to Keynes' explanation of the persistence of unemployment." In contrast, in chapter 19 of the General Theory, Keynes wrote, "[T]he Classical Theory has been accustomed to rest the supposedly self-adjusting character of the economic system on an assumed fluidity of money-wages; and, when there is rigidity, to lay on this rigidity the blame of maladjustment…. In its crudest form, this is tantamount to assuming that the reduction in money-wages will leave demand unaffected.… It is from this type of analysis that I fundamentally differ…"
It seems clear from the discussion in chapter 19 as a whole that Keynes rejected the hypothesis that rigid money wages were to blame for persistent unemployment. It would be possible to parse your sentence as ambiguous on the question of whether it was the assumption or the rejection of the assumption that "is central to Keynes' explanation." But of course the context of your article and of contemporary efficiency wage theory in general would seem to resolve any ambiguity. Was it your position, in 1984, that Keynes's explanation relied on the assumption that wage rigidity was to blame for the persistence of unemployment? If it was, is that still your position? If it wasn't your position -- or if your position has changed since then -- have you clarified that in any subsequent article? I thank you for any information you can provide on this matter.
Cheers,
Tom Walker
I am conducting historical research on Alfred Marshall's conception of the efficiency wage and how it relates to the contemporary sense of the term. In the course of my research, I have come across a claim that you made in 1984 that I wonder if you could clarify. You wrote, in "Theories of Wage Rigidity" (1984): "It is widely recognized that the assumption that wages are rigid is central to Keynes' explanation of the persistence of unemployment." In contrast, in chapter 19 of the General Theory, Keynes wrote, "[T]he Classical Theory has been accustomed to rest the supposedly self-adjusting character of the economic system on an assumed fluidity of money-wages; and, when there is rigidity, to lay on this rigidity the blame of maladjustment…. In its crudest form, this is tantamount to assuming that the reduction in money-wages will leave demand unaffected.… It is from this type of analysis that I fundamentally differ…"
It seems clear from the discussion in chapter 19 as a whole that Keynes rejected the hypothesis that rigid money wages were to blame for persistent unemployment. It would be possible to parse your sentence as ambiguous on the question of whether it was the assumption or the rejection of the assumption that "is central to Keynes' explanation." But of course the context of your article and of contemporary efficiency wage theory in general would seem to resolve any ambiguity. Was it your position, in 1984, that Keynes's explanation relied on the assumption that wage rigidity was to blame for the persistence of unemployment? If it was, is that still your position? If it wasn't your position -- or if your position has changed since then -- have you clarified that in any subsequent article? I thank you for any information you can provide on this matter.
Cheers,
Tom Walker
"It is widely recognized that the assumption that wages are rigid is central to Keynes' explanation of the persistence of unemployment." Joseph E. Stiglitz 1984.O. F. Hamouda writes:
"[T]he Classical Theory has been accustomed to rest the supposedly self-adjusting character of the economic system on an assumed fluidity of money-wages; and, when there is rigidity, to lay on this rigidity the blame of maladjustment…. In its crudest form, this is tantamount to assuming that the reduction in money-wages will leave demand unaffected.… It is from this type of analysis that I fundamentally differ…" John Maynard Keynes 1936.
"Given the enormous literature on Keynes and Keynesianism and the flippant way in economics in which consensuses are formed to become the truth, there is need for a concordance to be undertaken to compare, in the light of this book, what was said at the source, what was ascribed first-hand as having been said, and then what was made second-hand of those accounts, multiplied over and over. There is a delightful abundance of aberrations… …it is not claimed that everyone, everytime, everywhere should always run back to the sources nor, as Hicks once said, that the source should be taken as divine, but when a claim is made, it must be able to stand, as few presently do."One of the aberrations Hamouda cites is:
"It is widely recognized that the assumption that wages are rigid is central to Keynes' explanation of the persistence of unemployment." Joseph E. Stiglitz 1984.Paul Davidson also pointed out the New Keynesian reversal of Keynes's position in "Would Keynes be a New Keynesian?" Eastern Economic Journal, Vol. 18, No. 4 (Fall, 1992), pp. 449-463.
"The principle of a truth in labeling law that protects consumers from false and misleading claims is often violated by economics textbooks. Under the truth in labeling law, a minimum quantity of beef is required in a patty before society permits anyone to sell it as a hamburger. Similarly some minimum quantity of Keynes's logical analysis should be an essential ingredient in any theory sold as Keynesian, especially in textbooks to yet uneducated consumers.---
"Paraphrasing a famous slogan of the 1988 Democratic presidential primary, 'Where's the Keynesian beef in New Keynesian economics"? This paper demonstrates that (1) New Keynesian Economics (hereafter NKE) does not contain any of Keynes's logical building blocks, and (2) NKE leads to policies that are the opposite of what Keynes advocated as solutions to the major problems facing real world economies."
"...Keynes specifically denied that fixed nominal wages and prices were a necessary condition for underemployment equilibrium. One complete chapter of The General Theory demonstrates why the existence of instantaneously flexible money wages can not assure full employment - even if no coordination failures exist. 'For the Classical Theory has been accustomed to rest the supposedly self-adjusting character of the economic system on the assumed fluidity of money-wages; and, when there is rigidity, to lay on this rigidity the blame of maladjustment ...My difference from this theory is primarily a difference of analysis'. In the fourth section, it will be shown that Keynes's use of wage units to measure his aggregate functions brings to the foreground this "difference of analysis" by requiring the feedback effects of flexible wages be traced on components of aggregate demand. These feedback effects had nothing to do with coordination failures!
"Keynes's chapter 19 analysis demonstrates that complete wage (or price) flexibility was neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for full-employment equilibrium. Keynes's two major conclusions regarding the effect of instantaneously flexible money wages - even in condition of purely competitive supply - are that "there is, therefore, no ground for the belief that a flexible wage policy is capable of maintaining a state of continuous full employment" and that "to suppose that a flexible wage policy is a right and proper adjunct of a system which on the whole is one of laissez-faire, is the opposite of the truth".
"Consequently, anyone selling New Keynesian theoretical patties, in which the fixity of nominal wages or prices is the main ingredient, to students (or uneducated policy makers) would not get a franchise to use his name from the originator of Keynesian economics."
Wednesday, June 4, 2014
Explaining Pikettymania
It isn't every day a name economist publishes a long, heavily footnoted book and storms the bestseller list. How to explain this?
I will reject two partisan explanations. The first is that “inequality is an idea whose time has come”. Well, yes and no. Actually, it came a couple of decades ago, and quite a few important books have been written on the topic since then, none of them reaching even a sliver of Piketty's audience. But no doubt it helps that the topic is about inequality and not, say, auction theory.
The other partisan meme is that it’s just the Marxist liberals (I love writing this) who are in a frenzy, and once they get bored they’ll move on to their next obsession, like how wonderful it is to raise your taxes. If so, there are a lot of these Lenin-lovers out there, more than we thought. But still, why Piketty?
I have some hypotheses of my own:
1. Readers in this country, maybe elsewhere, really like history books and other books with lots of history in them. They like the long view, the big picture. Piketty’s vision of capitalism spans centuries, and this fits right in. I remember the mini-craze a few years back for This Time it’s Different. It had the topic du jour (financial chaos), but I think readers appreciated all the history packed into it. If it had told more stories it would have made an even bigger splash.
2. Which brings me to the second thought: Piketty drops juicy factoids on almost every page. He goes out of his way to do this. That’s a formula for mass market success, or at least it gives an author a fighting chance. Some of this material is central to his argument, like the tables with wealth, growth rates, etc. A lot of it falls under the heading of what reviewers have called digressions, which is mostly context-setting. This much I'll wager: the vast majority of his readers are more interested in the data and stories than the algebra.
3. And the data are really wonderful. Admit it. The book is crammed with interesting and important evidence about the evolution of capitalism through the ups and downs of history. This part of his popularity is fully deserved: the book is the culmination of a research project that he has pursued doggedly for two decades, which is where all the cool numbers come from.
4. Finally, he has found a voice and style that lots of readers are comfortable with. He is morally serious, talking about grand issues of democracy, social justice, the viability of the social order, and all that, but he also has a sense of humor and, more important, a disarming honesty about his own limitations. He admits it when, despite his best efforts, the evidence is simply weak. Predictions are provisional and may flip if new data point in another direction. There is an aw-shucks tone to the whole enterprise—no bluster at all. Need I mention that this is unusual for an economist?
So there are some explanations. But maybe it’s not about him. Perhaps the competition is simply weak right now—no killer historical novels or Gladwellesque pastiches about the psychological quirks that explain what running a Fortune 500 company and dog training have in common. We're having an early summer and people have to read something.
I will reject two partisan explanations. The first is that “inequality is an idea whose time has come”. Well, yes and no. Actually, it came a couple of decades ago, and quite a few important books have been written on the topic since then, none of them reaching even a sliver of Piketty's audience. But no doubt it helps that the topic is about inequality and not, say, auction theory.
The other partisan meme is that it’s just the Marxist liberals (I love writing this) who are in a frenzy, and once they get bored they’ll move on to their next obsession, like how wonderful it is to raise your taxes. If so, there are a lot of these Lenin-lovers out there, more than we thought. But still, why Piketty?
I have some hypotheses of my own:
1. Readers in this country, maybe elsewhere, really like history books and other books with lots of history in them. They like the long view, the big picture. Piketty’s vision of capitalism spans centuries, and this fits right in. I remember the mini-craze a few years back for This Time it’s Different. It had the topic du jour (financial chaos), but I think readers appreciated all the history packed into it. If it had told more stories it would have made an even bigger splash.
2. Which brings me to the second thought: Piketty drops juicy factoids on almost every page. He goes out of his way to do this. That’s a formula for mass market success, or at least it gives an author a fighting chance. Some of this material is central to his argument, like the tables with wealth, growth rates, etc. A lot of it falls under the heading of what reviewers have called digressions, which is mostly context-setting. This much I'll wager: the vast majority of his readers are more interested in the data and stories than the algebra.
3. And the data are really wonderful. Admit it. The book is crammed with interesting and important evidence about the evolution of capitalism through the ups and downs of history. This part of his popularity is fully deserved: the book is the culmination of a research project that he has pursued doggedly for two decades, which is where all the cool numbers come from.
4. Finally, he has found a voice and style that lots of readers are comfortable with. He is morally serious, talking about grand issues of democracy, social justice, the viability of the social order, and all that, but he also has a sense of humor and, more important, a disarming honesty about his own limitations. He admits it when, despite his best efforts, the evidence is simply weak. Predictions are provisional and may flip if new data point in another direction. There is an aw-shucks tone to the whole enterprise—no bluster at all. Need I mention that this is unusual for an economist?
So there are some explanations. But maybe it’s not about him. Perhaps the competition is simply weak right now—no killer historical novels or Gladwellesque pastiches about the psychological quirks that explain what running a Fortune 500 company and dog training have in common. We're having an early summer and people have to read something.
Working less: "Is there a history of this idea?"
Thomas Frank interviews David Graeber at Salon:
Let’s start at the beginning: Keynes’ prediction, back in the 1930s, that before too long workers would have all sorts of leisure time because of improving productivity. Is there a history of this idea? I mean, others have argued this as well, correct?
Well, radical elements in the labor movement began embracing such visions from quite early on. After the successful campaigns for the eight-hour day in the 1880s, people immediately started thinking, can we move this to seven, six, or less. Paul Lafargue, Marx’s son-in-law, and author of “The Right to Be Lazy,” was already calling for something along those lines in 1883. I have a Wobbly T-shirt with a turn-of-the-century style design that says “join the IWW for a new dawn,” it has a sun rising over the rooftops, and on the sun is written, “four-day week, four-hour day.” I don’t know how old the image really is but I’m guessing it’s from the Teens or the ’20s. In the 1930s, a lot of labor unions did move their industries to a 35-hour week. My mom was a garment worker at the time and that’s how she ended up getting involved in the ILGWU musical review “Pins and Needles,” because everyone had moved to a shorter week and the union started providing leisure activities.
And when did this expectation finally start dying out?
Monday, June 2, 2014
Artificial Scarcity and the Lopsided Economist
Jared Bernstein has launched a vital conversation around the question, "why is capital so much stronger than labor?" In his first post, Jared reflects,
Sandwichman comments on c > l as follows:
I'd like to propose substituting for the word "inequality," the word "lopsided." Inequality is their word and it carries with it a customary whiff of distinction, justified by merit. The connotation is undeserved but has been instituted through sheer repetition and amplification. Wealth and income are not merely unequal, they are literally lopsided: one side has been lopped off.
One side of economic analysis has been lopped off, too. It is the side that deals with the inherent imbalance, the lopsidedness. A lopsided economics makes a lopsided economy even more so.
But let me be more specific. As John R. Commons, pointed out, efficiency and scarcity are complements as well as substitutes. Lionel Robbins's famous definition of economics as "the science which studies human behaviour as a relationship between ends and scarce means which have alternative uses" implicitly (albeit ambiguously) posits the scarcity of the means as given and thus evades the crucial complication of artificial scarcity.
There has been in economics a long-lasting and lopsided preoccupation with one kind of artificial scarcity: the restriction of output by workers. Every once in a while a renegade economist such as Veblen looks directly into this lopsidedness and debunks it but the prejudice trundles on as if nothing had happened. As Warren Samuels noted 20 years ago, the contemporary "efficiency wage" literature is rife with pejorative anti-worker bias. Google scholar shows 10 results for Samuels's critique (four of them in articles by David Spencer) compared to 4589 results for Shapiro and Stiglitz's article on "shirking" and efficiency wages.
And just what IS a wage anyway? It is a ratio. It is a rate of remuneration PER period of time or unit of output. By far the most common form of wages today are time wages.What would one think of an analysis of capital that analyzed the return without reference to the principal? Yet contemporary economics treats the supply of hours of labor as unproblematically generated by workers' preferences for leisure or income. There is NO theoretical foundation for this treatment. There is NO empirical foundation for it. The "leisure device" has been shown to be utterly unfounded and yet it forms the basis of the systematic exclusion from contemporary economic theorizing of the question of the efficiency of the given hours of work.
Again, the "New Keynesian" efficiency wage hypothesis literature provides a stark illustration of this lopsided exclusion. Bob LaJeunesse's 1999 Challenge article on the efficiency week garnered ONE citation and even that by an author who declined to pursue the analysis.
Concern with the efficiency of the hours of labor, as well as the rate of pay for those hours is not just some quaint institutionalist (or Marxist) hobby horse. Marshall's neoclassical analysis of an "efficiency wage" and that of his star pupils, Pigou and Chapman, was influenced both directly and indirectly by Thomas Brassey's Work and Wages, which focused explicitly on the productivity effects of variations in the hours of labor. The neo-Walrasian, mathematical modelers have opted for a pre-marginalist doctrine, in effect resurrecting on the "revealed preference" supply side the defunct wages-fund doctrine that was long ago discredited and disavowed as an explanation of the demand for labor.
In conclusion, lopsided outcomes in income and wealth are hardly a surprise in an economic system in which the power to restrict output and thus to maintain a profitable advantage through artificial scarcity is itself lopsided. A lopsided economics that treats the entrepreneur as the epitome of efficiency and workers as shirkers is unlikely to disclose the sources of income and wealth lopsidedness. The lopsided treatment of the wage as somehow immune to operations on the divisor side of the ratio is equally unlikely to consider the full range of appropriate remedies for the lopsidedness of income and wealth.
...my experience as a policy wonk and economist in government has led me to believe that economics, as currently practiced, is part of the problem. Not the discipline itself, which historically has been flexible enough to offer wide ranging and useful tools for analyzing and solving economic problems. I’m talking instead about the way it interacts with wealth and power today to support capital and hamstring labor.Part 2 of "why is capital so much stronger than labor?" is titled r > g meets c > l
Sandwichman comments on c > l as follows:
I'd like to propose substituting for the word "inequality," the word "lopsided." Inequality is their word and it carries with it a customary whiff of distinction, justified by merit. The connotation is undeserved but has been instituted through sheer repetition and amplification. Wealth and income are not merely unequal, they are literally lopsided: one side has been lopped off.
One side of economic analysis has been lopped off, too. It is the side that deals with the inherent imbalance, the lopsidedness. A lopsided economics makes a lopsided economy even more so.
But let me be more specific. As John R. Commons, pointed out, efficiency and scarcity are complements as well as substitutes. Lionel Robbins's famous definition of economics as "the science which studies human behaviour as a relationship between ends and scarce means which have alternative uses" implicitly (albeit ambiguously) posits the scarcity of the means as given and thus evades the crucial complication of artificial scarcity.
There has been in economics a long-lasting and lopsided preoccupation with one kind of artificial scarcity: the restriction of output by workers. Every once in a while a renegade economist such as Veblen looks directly into this lopsidedness and debunks it but the prejudice trundles on as if nothing had happened. As Warren Samuels noted 20 years ago, the contemporary "efficiency wage" literature is rife with pejorative anti-worker bias. Google scholar shows 10 results for Samuels's critique (four of them in articles by David Spencer) compared to 4589 results for Shapiro and Stiglitz's article on "shirking" and efficiency wages.
And just what IS a wage anyway? It is a ratio. It is a rate of remuneration PER period of time or unit of output. By far the most common form of wages today are time wages.What would one think of an analysis of capital that analyzed the return without reference to the principal? Yet contemporary economics treats the supply of hours of labor as unproblematically generated by workers' preferences for leisure or income. There is NO theoretical foundation for this treatment. There is NO empirical foundation for it. The "leisure device" has been shown to be utterly unfounded and yet it forms the basis of the systematic exclusion from contemporary economic theorizing of the question of the efficiency of the given hours of work.
Again, the "New Keynesian" efficiency wage hypothesis literature provides a stark illustration of this lopsided exclusion. Bob LaJeunesse's 1999 Challenge article on the efficiency week garnered ONE citation and even that by an author who declined to pursue the analysis.
Concern with the efficiency of the hours of labor, as well as the rate of pay for those hours is not just some quaint institutionalist (or Marxist) hobby horse. Marshall's neoclassical analysis of an "efficiency wage" and that of his star pupils, Pigou and Chapman, was influenced both directly and indirectly by Thomas Brassey's Work and Wages, which focused explicitly on the productivity effects of variations in the hours of labor. The neo-Walrasian, mathematical modelers have opted for a pre-marginalist doctrine, in effect resurrecting on the "revealed preference" supply side the defunct wages-fund doctrine that was long ago discredited and disavowed as an explanation of the demand for labor.
In conclusion, lopsided outcomes in income and wealth are hardly a surprise in an economic system in which the power to restrict output and thus to maintain a profitable advantage through artificial scarcity is itself lopsided. A lopsided economics that treats the entrepreneur as the epitome of efficiency and workers as shirkers is unlikely to disclose the sources of income and wealth lopsidedness. The lopsided treatment of the wage as somehow immune to operations on the divisor side of the ratio is equally unlikely to consider the full range of appropriate remedies for the lopsidedness of income and wealth.
The Crisis at the Veterans Health Administration and a Shortage of Doctors
In response to a call for privatization from Greg Mankiw, I noted this excellent discussion:
The Department of Veterans Affairs spends more today in inflation adjusted dollars than it did after World War II and the Vietnam War, when millions of troops returned from the battlefield, according to federal budget figures … Two factors more than any others have driven health care costs higher at the Dayton VA Medical Center, officials said. Aging Vietnam veterans who have more health needs as they grow older, and the return home of thousands of veterans from the battlegrounds of Iraq and Afghanistan. "It's the number of veterans returning from the war, but it's also the conditions they are returning with," said Dr. William J. Germann, Dayton VA chief of primary care service and a retired Air Force brigadier general. "There are a number of veterans coming back dysfunctional and as a result may not be able to hold a job."Richard Oppel and Abby Goodnough discuss what they call a doctor’s shortage:
At the heart of the falsified data in Phoenix, and possibly many other veterans hospitals, is an acute shortage of doctors, particularly primary care ones, to handle a patient population swelled both by aging veterans from the Vietnam War and younger ones who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to congressional officials, Veterans Affairs doctors and medical industry experts. The department says it is trying to fill 400 vacancies to add to its roster of primary care doctors, which last year numbered 5,100. “The doctors are good but they are overworked, and they feel inadequate in the face of the inordinate demands made on them,” said Senator Richard Blumenthal, Democrat of Connecticut and a member of the Senate Veterans Affairs Committee. “The exploding workload is suffocating them.” ... Most experts agree that soaring demand for veterans’ care has outpaced the availability of doctors in many locations, and that high turnover is a major problem. In the past three years, primary-care appointments have leapt 50 percent while the department’s staff of primary care doctors has grown by only 9 percent, according to department statistics. Those primary care doctors are supposed to be responsible for about 1,200 patients each, but many now treat upward of 2,000, said J. David Cox Sr., national president of the American Federation of Government EmployeesWould outsourcing some of the responsibility to the private sector alleviate the problem and if so how? The price system could attract more doctor supply but only at additional cost with the key question whether this cost would be borne by taxpayers or by patients. If we are to avoid asking our veterans to pay the additional cost, Congress must be willing to pony up the additional funds. Oppel and Goodnough continue:
Supporters of the department also note that hospitals everywhere are struggling to find primary care doctors. But some experts say the department has additional hurdles, including lower pay scales. Primary care doctors and internists at veterans centers generally earn from about $98,000 to $195,000, compared with private-sector primary care physicians whose total median compensation was $221,000 in 2012, according to the Medical Group Management Association, a trade group.So are we doomed to paying the doctors gild higher compensation? Dean Baker apparently does not think so:
Doctors in the United States make on average more than twice what their counterparts in other wealthy countries earn, which means that many would likely be willing to work in the United States for a period of time, given the opportunity ... given the evidence of a shortage of doctors in the United States, and the huge gap in pay between the U.S. and other countries, this would seem an obvious case for benefits from increased immigration. It is remarkable that this is not front and center on the national agenda.To be fair to Greg Mankiw, he has always made the same argument.
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