Tuesday, January 5, 2021

Zooming in on the Defects of PowerPoint

 I’ve just finished several days of staring, hour after hour, at the year’s economics meetings via Zoom.  What really struck me, beyond the content of the talks, was the way Zoom exacerbates “death by bullet point”.

PowerPoint’s capabilities encourage speakers to load up their slides with lots of text and graphics, which then leads the audience to glue their eyeballs to the slides and not the speaker.  This defeats the core purpose of public speaking in the post-Gutenberg era, which is to use the audience’s engagement with the speaker as a vehicle for communicating thoughts and feelings that the written word, even accompanied by pictures, can’t express.  The worst scenario, which all of us have experienced way too often, is when a speaker crams lots of text in tiny fonts into each slide and then reads it word for word.

As a teacher, I deliberately tried to upend this tendency without abandoning PowerPoint altogether.  I constructed very simple slides with as little text as possible, using very large fonts and relying on spatial organization, like lists and things pointing to other things with arrows to give listeners a sense of the ongoing structure of my presentation.  Sometimes I would insert charts or tables, but usually with only two or three headline quantities or relationships, easily seen in brief glimpse.  I wanted students’ attention to be focused on me, not my slides.

A few of the speakers I saw this week had the same strategy, but it was defeated by Zoom.  The standard Zoom screen gives you a tiny speaker window next to a massive space for slides; the main effect of PowerPoint minimalism was to produce a screenful of whitespace.  You could barely see the speaker even if you wanted to.

Why isn’t the ratio of screen space devoted to slides versus speaker image customizable?

More Questions?

  1. What would be the ultimate effect on interest rates of a perpetually increasing accumulation of capital?
  2. What would be the logical social response to a situation in which the interest rate on money is effectively zero?
  3. What was the principal intention and object of the early political economists?
  4. What effect does the detail of figures, the jargon of political economists, or the complexity of existing institutions have on the accumulation of capital?


Monday, January 4, 2021

Updating Bubble Bubble Toil and Trouble

 On Dec. 21 I posted on "Bubble Bubble Toil and Trouble."  Mostly things have not changed too much.  Oil is still running around $50 per barrel, stocks are not too different from where they were then.  I have no new data on real estate.  Gold is up a bit, now over $1900 again and scraping all time highs, but that is not too much higher than it was on 12.21/20.


What has been shooting up again, quite dramatically in the last few days, have been the cryptocurrencies again, especially bitcoin that has hit a substantially higher new high over $31,000 today. Others have followed, although not as dramatically, although second largest market Ethereum has passed $1,000 for the first time ever.  In any case, this is not a particularly informative post because I have no new information on why this is happening or what is driving this.  There are the same rumors that were around before about possible official digital currencies, and so on, although not any new news on those fronts.  Indeed, I remind that the outcome of any major rollout of official digital currencies might well crash the cryptos, with some people speculating they could also crash regular monies and even banks, although I am doubtful things would go that far.  But in any case, the crypto markets are going wild again, for whatever reason.

Oh, and happy new year, you all.

Barkley Rosser

The “it” Pronoun

The pronoun wars show no sign of abating.  How to replace the use of “him” and “his” to refer to people who are not male or whose gender is unknown?  For a while I used “him and her” or “his and hers”, but it is much too clunky, especially if repeated over the course of several sentences.  Then I switched to alternating genders, first using her/hers and then when the next opportunity arose him/his and so on.  But this is unsatisfactory as well, since it doesn’t distinguish clearly between instances where you know the gender (and can use the appropriate pronoun) and those where you don’t and are just throwing one out there.  Finally I gravitated to they/theirs, despite the deep belief, inculcated through decades of indoctrination, that it is a crime to mixed up singular and plural forms.

None of these is satisfactory, yet it is important to de-gender our language.  We shouldn’t default to a locution that places one gender ahead of another, and we should even go further and not impose a gender binary either.  All of that should be expunged.  Where to go from here?

I have a proposal, and this is “it”.  Very broadly, it/its has been used to designate things that are non- or insufficiently human instead of the him/her/his/hers complex, which is mostly reserved for our own species.  So-called higher animals whose sex is known, like your pet dog or cat, could be graced with him/his or her/hers, but if you don’t have this knowledge, or if the creature is considered lower, it merits only an it/its in common with inanimate objects.  A fish, for instance, is an it.  If you see a bird at some distance and are unable to sex it, it is an it.

Drawing the line in this way is objectionable.  I have been reading a bit of popular writing on animal cognition (Frans de Waal, Jennifer Ackerman), and it’s clear that referring to such organisms in a way that lumps them together with rocks compared to higher beings like us misrepresents them.

But what if we used it/its for everything and everyone?  A rock would be an it, yes, but also a bird and even a human.  Complete and universal itification.  In one swoop it would do away with illegitimate gendering and the Descartes-ish denigration of nonhuman beings.  The only drawback would be the erasure of a linguistic distinction between animate and inanimate referents, but the current use of it/its violates this anyway.  Yes, we would be uncomfortable referring to each other itishly, but any de-gendered linguistic change takes getting used to.

What do you think?  Are we ready for “it”?

And More Questions

  1. Are there limits to the accumulation of capital?
  2. Under what condition is there a limit to the accumulation of capital?
  3. If there are limits to the accumulation of capital, what defines those limits?


Sunday, January 3, 2021

Even More Questions

  1. What is capital?
  2. What power does capital have when invested in machinery, lands, agricultural improvements, etc.?
  3. What happens to individuals when they have experienced the accumulative power of money?

Saturday, January 2, 2021

A Few More Questions

  1. What objections are there to the proposition that wealth consists of reserved surplus labour?
  2. How may one answer objections to the proposition that wealth consists of reserved surplus labour?
  3. What is the difference between value in use and value in exchange of goods?
  4. Why should calculation of the wealth of a nation exclude (or include) its usual and necessary consumption?

Friday, January 1, 2021

A Few Questions

  1. What constitutes the wealth of a nation?
  2. What is the source of all wealth and revenue?
  3. Does the method by which one receives income -- whether wage, rent, profit or interest -- indicate the ultimate source of the value represented by it? 
  4. Do stores of money, machinery, manufactured goods or produce represent reserved surplus labour?

Thursday, December 31, 2020

2021 Forecast...

...from 200 years ago:

"The increase of trade and commerce opened a boundless extent to luxury:—the splendour of luxurious enjoyment in a few excited a worthless, and debasing, and selfish emulation in all:—The attainment of wealth became the ultimate purpose of life:—the selfishness of nature was pampered up by trickery and art:—pride and ambition were made subservient to this vicious purpose:—their appetite was corrupted in their infancy, that it might leave its natural and wholesome nutriment, to feed on the garbage of Change Alley*:—instead of the quiet, the enjoyment, the happiness, and the moral energy of the people, they read in their horn-book of nothing but the wealth, the commerce, the manufactures, the revenue, and the pecuniary resources of the country; the extent of its navy and the muster-roll of its hireling army:—in honour of this beastly Belial** they made a sacrifice of the high energies of their nature:—they hailed his progress with hosannahs, though on his right hand sat Despotism, and on his left Misery:– they made a welcome sacrifice to him of their virtues and their liberties:—to satisfy his cravings they forewent their natural desires:—honour and truth were offered up on his altars:—and the consummation of their hopes was characterised by misery and ignorance; the dissolution of all social virtue and common sympathy among individuals; and by a disunited, feeble, despotic, and despised government!"

* "Change Alley": nickname for the location of the London Stock ExCHANGE (equivalent to "Wall Street")

** Belial: personification of wickedness and ungodliness alluded to in the Bible.


Tuesday, December 29, 2020

How is it?

Why then is it that no existing society, nor society that ever had existence, has arrived at this point of time, considering that in all times, and in all societies, excepting only the very barbarous, a few years would naturally have led to it?
How is it too, it might be added, that notwithstanding the unbounded extent of our capital, the progressive improvement and wonderful perfection of our machinery, our canals, roads, and of all other things that can either facilitate labour, or increase its produce; our labourer, instead of having his labours abridged, toils infinitely more, more hours, more laboriously, than the first Celtic savage that crossed over from the Cimmerian Chersonesus, and took possession of the desert island?

Monday, December 28, 2020

Wayback to the Socially Available Future

In 1995 I launched the TimeWork Web, which was a "research site" for investigating the history, theory, desirability, practicality, and feasibility of reducing the hours of work. The fruits of that endeavor included my history and critique of the "lump of labor" fallacy claim, rediscovery of Sydney Chapman's once canonical "Hours of Labour" analysis, and the rediscovery and transcription of Charles Wentworth Dilke's The Source and Remedy of the National Difficulties deduced from principles of political economy. 

A couple of days ago I sent off my manuscript of an article about the 200-year old pamphlet, first read on microfilm in the basement of the UBC library nearly 22 years ago. The motto of this Sandwichman retrospective comes from Walter Benjamin: 

It is not the object of the story to convey a happening per se, which is the purpose of information, rather, it embeds it in the life of the storyteller in order to pass it on as experience to those listening. 

Here is the introduction and overview of the research project launched in 1995:

Sunday, December 27, 2020

Who Has Been Warring Against Christmas?

 Where I am the Third Day of Christmas is just finishing with the news that Grinch Trump has ended his own brief War on Christmas and is signing the Covid-19 relief bill, thereby reinstating unemployment benefits for 14 million people although they'll miss a week of payments, as well as preventing millions more from being evicted from their rental housing units, along with the Omnibus spending bill so the government will not shut down after tomorrow.  There has been less noise this year about the War on Christmas by the usual gang of right wing media types who like to whine about merchants and others saying "Happy Holidays!" rather than "Merry Christmas!" during the runup to Christmas, probably because so many of them have been caught up in whining about Biden supposedly stealing the election from Trump.  But this somehow draws my attention to another group entirely who have been at warring on Christmas for a long time.

So according to most of the major Christian denominations such as the Roman Catholic Church, and the Episcopalians, and Lutherans, and others of that ilk, the official proper Christmas season actually is the Twelve Days of Christmas, the first of which was Christmas Day itself, with the twelfth day of Christmas being Jan. 6, the Epiphany, the day supposed the Magi (Wise Men) visited the Baby Jesus. But for many they are not even willing to wait until New Year's day, the official seventh day, to bring it to an end.  There I was on Facebook yesterday, the second day, also known as Boxing Day in UK and some other places, and an FB friend posted about being "glad it is over," with a commenter on that thread getting even more worked up and declaring to have "taken down out tree and put away all the decorations, I could hardly wait for it to end!"  Yikes! Along these lines for some years now around here there is a rock/pop radio station that begins playing cheesy commercial "Christmas" music like "Frosty the Snowman" all the time starting almost immediately after Halloween, but reverts immediately to its usual fare starting December 26, the Second Day of Christmas. Sheesh!

Yes, it looks like that old bugaboo, the commercialization of Christmas and those pushing it have been the real Warriors on Christmas, shutting down the Christmas season the minute after it truly officially starts. They have been at pushing it earlier and earlier into the year, so of course gobs of people are totally sick of it by the time Dec. 25 comes around and are ready to toss it all out the following day.  Hooray! Nor more Christmas!  For a long time there were no commercials before Thanksgiving, or at least so it seemed when I was young, although the Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade had long been the unofficial beginning of the commercial Christmas season with it ending with the arrival of Santa Claus to be followed the following day by the Black Friday of Christmas shopping.  Indeed, that parade and Macy's and other stores in New York played a major role, along with the Coca Cola company in the early 20th century, in creating that modern image of Santa Claus, out of the image in the Clement Moore "Night Before Christmas" from the 1820s, which in turn drew on some versions of the Dutch Sint Niklaas who was celebrated by New York Dutch. All this was crucially at the heart of this vast commercialization that overcame the old Puritan resistance to any celebrating of Christmas.

But somewhere in the last several decades that Thanksgiving boundary was broken through.  The Christmas ads, and then the cheesy movies and music, all began earlier in November and proceeded to creep ever earlier, egged on by radio stations like the one near me that gets it going the minute Halloween has passed.  And in more recent years even the Halloween barrier seemed to begin to get broken, with ads appearing here and there even in late October.  No wonder so many have gotten so sick of it by the ostensible "First Day of Christmas" they are ready to toss their trees and purge their homes of any shred of decorations still lurking about.

Some have objected to all this.  One curiously has been the Jewish comedian, who came up with calling Dec. 23 "Festivus" to recognize this commercialized version of the holiday.  But not only has this not really caught on, but some have even accused him of engaging in "the War on Christmas" with his suggestion.  A quite religious colleague of mine who was a journalist once upon a time wrote a column that appeared in the Wall Street Journal of all places some decades ago in which he proposed that, like Seinfeld, we create an alternative celebration, which he said should be called "Excessmass," to be when the commercialized version of the holiday could be celebrated, so as to leave the good religious Christians like himself to have their proper holiday left alone.  That proposal has gotten even less far than the "Festivus" one by Seinfeld.

S o there we have it, folks.  The warriors on Christmas have been its commercializers, lot these many years.  Have a happy what is left of the Christmas season!

Barkley Rosser

Long Addenduem, next evening:

In may family when I was a kid, raised Presbyterian with a quite religious mother and a much less so father, we did not start celebrating Christmas until Dec. 1, the beginning of Advent, and did keep it up through Jan. 6.  Did not watch the Macy's parade on TV or otherwise recognize Black Friday or any of the rest of it prior to Dec. 1.

So I shall note how widely varying this is across countries.  In Russia Christmas is celebrated on Jan. 7 by adherents of the dominant religion, Russian Orthodoxy, although areas in the western part of the former USSR were dominated either by Catholics or Lutherans and thus celebrated it on Dec. 25.  As it was under Communist Party rule, public celebrations of Christmas itself were largely suppressed, although during most times were allowed to some degree to happen in the churches with services.

However, another much celebrated holiday had been celebrated since the time of Peter the Great that took on many aspects of Christmas we see in the West, trees, lights, and gift giving within families, as well as celebratory eating and drinking, with gifts being given by a Santa Claus-like figure known as Grandfather Frost (Ded Moroz) who is accompanied by his granddaughter, the Snow Maiden.  They are derived from pre-Christian pagan figures.  Anyway, this holiday is New Year's Eve (Snovem Godem), which is a much bigger deal than either Dec. 25 or Jan. 6.  It should be noted that Grandfather Frost is kept clearly distinct from Saint Nicholas, who is the patron saint of Russia.  In icons he is usually portrayed as beardless and with a long face, which fits his traditional appearance as thin and kind of grim actually, not a jolly old elf at all.

Then we have Catholic Mediterranean nations, with me having observed this period in particular in more than one year in Florence, Italy.  In this part of the world Christmas celebrations make a big deal about Mary and her role in it all.  So in Florence public Christmas decorations, especially lights, do not go up until Dec. 8, Mary's birthday. Most of those decorations come down after Jan. 6, but certain ones remain longer, most especially Nativity creches, which remain in churches until Feb. 2, yes Groundhog Day in the US.  But in the Roman Catholic Church this is Candlemas, coinciding with a pagan Celtid holiday, but known ad Candlemas and also marking 40 days after the birth of Jesus, when supposedly Mary entered the Temple to be purified, making it also the Feast of the Purification of the Virgin.  So there, for all those who want to get over Christmas on Dec. 26, take that!

Reichtum ist verfügbare Zeit und nichts weiter

How it started (Charles Wentworth Dilke, 1821):

THE PROGRESS OF THIS INCREASING CAPITAL WOULDin established societiesBE MARKED BY THE DECREASING INTEREST OF MONEY, or, which is the same thing, the decreasing quantity of the labour of others that would be given for its use; but so long as capital could command interest at all, it would seem to follow, that the society cannot have arrived at that maximum of wealth, or of productive power, when its produce must be allowed to perish.

When, however, it shall have arrived at this maximum, it would be ridiculous to suppose, that society would still continue to exert its utmost productive power. The next consequence therefore would be, that where men heretofore laboured twelve hours they would now labour six, and this is national wealth, this is national prosperity. After all their idle sophistry, there is, thank God! no means of adding to the wealth of a nation but by adding to the facilities of living: so that wealth is liberty––liberty to seek recreation––liberty to enjoy life––liberty to improve the mind: it is disposable time, and nothing more. Whenever a society shall have arrived at this point, whether the individuals that compose it, shall, for these six hours, bask in the sun, or sleep in the shade, or idle, or play, or invest their labour in things with which it perishes, which last is a necessary consequence if they will labour at all, ought to be in the election of every man individually.

How it continued (Karl Marx, 1857-58):

Die Schöpfung von viel disposable time außer der notwendigen Arbeitszeit für die Gesellschaft überhaupt und jedes Glied derselben (d.h. Raum für die Entwicklung der vollen Produktivkräfte der einzelnen, daher auch der Gesellschaft), diese Schöpfung von Nicht-Arbeitszeit erscheint auf dem Standpunkt des Kapitals, wie aller frühren Stufen, als Nicht-Arbeitszeit, freie Zeit für einige. Das Kapital fügt hinzu, daß es die Surplusarbeitszeit der Masse durch alle Mittel der Kunst und Wissenschaft vermehrt, weil sein Reichtum direkt in der Aneignung von Surplusarbeitszeit besteht; da sein Zweck direkt der Wert, nicht der Gebrauchswert. Es ist so, malgré lui, instrumental in creating the means of social disposable time, um die Arbeitszeit für die ganze Gesellschaft auf ein fallendes Minimum zu reduzieren und so die Zeit aller frei für ihre eigne Entwicklung zu machen. Seine Tendenz aber immer, einerseits disposable time zu schaffen, andrerseits to convert it into surplus labour. Gelingt ihm das erstre zu gut, so leidet es an Surplusproduktion, und dann wird die notwendige Arbeit unterbrochen, weil keine surplus labour vom Kapital verwertet werden kann. Je mehr dieser Widerspruch sich entwickelt, um so mehr stellt sich heraus, daß das Wachstum der Produktivkräfte nicht mehr gebannt sein kann an die Aneignung fremder surplus labour, sondern die Arbeitermasse selbst ihre Surplusarbeit sich aneignen muß. Hat sie das getan – und hört damit die disposable time auf, gegensätzliche Existenz zu haben –, so wird einerseits die notwendige Arbeitszeit ihr Maß an den Bedürfnissen des gesellschaftlichen Individuums haben, andrerseits die Entwicklung der gesellschaftlichen Produktivkraft so rasch wachsen, daß, obgleich nun auf den Reichtum aller die Produktion berechnet ist, die disposable time aller wächst. Denn der wirkliche Reichtum ist die entwickelte Produktivkraft aller Individuen. Es ist dann keineswegs mehr die Arbeitszeit, sondern die disposable time das Maß des Reichtums. Die Arbeitszeit als Maß des Reichtums setzt den Reichtum selbst als auf der Armut begründet und die disposable time nur existierend im und durch den Gegensatz zur Surplusarbeitszeit oder Setzen der ganzen Zeit des Individuums als Arbeitszeit und Degradation desselben daher zum bloßen Arbeiter, Subsumtion unter die Arbeit. Die entwickeltste Maschinerie zwingt den Arbeiter daher, jetzt länger zu arbeiten, als der Wilde tut oder als er selbst mit den einfachsten, rohsten Werkzeugen tat.

(In English):

The creation of a large quantity of disposable time apart from necessary labour time for society generally and each of its members (i.e. room for the development of the individuals’ full productive forces, hence those of society also), this creation of not-labour time appears in the stage of capital, as of all earlier ones, as not-labour time, free time, for a few. What capital adds is that it increases the surplus labour time of the mass by all the means of art and science, because its wealth consists directly in the appropriation of surplus labour time; since value directly its purpose, not use value. It is thus, despite itself [malgré lui], instrumental in creating the means of social disposable time, in order to reduce labour time for the whole society to a diminishing minimum, and thus to free everyone’s time for their own development. But its tendency always, on the one side, to create disposable time, on the other, to convert it into surplus labour. If it succeeds too well at the first, then it suffers from surplus production, and then necessary labour is interrupted, because no surplus labour can be realized by capital. The more this contradiction develops, the more does it become evident that the growth of the forces of production can no longer be bound up with the appropriation of alien labour, but that the mass of workers must themselves appropriate their own surplus labour. Once they have done so – and disposable time thereby ceases to have an antithetical existence – then, on one side, necessary labour time will be measured by the needs of the social individual, and, on the other, the development of the power of social production will grow so rapidly that, even though production is now calculated for the wealth of all, disposable time will grow for all. For real wealth is the developed productive power of all individuals. The measure of wealth is then not any longer, in any way, labour time, but rather disposable time. Labour time as the measure of value posits wealth itself as founded on poverty, and disposable time as existing in and because of the antithesis to surplus labour time; or, the positing of an individual’s entire time as labour time, and his degradation therefore to mere worker, subsumption under labour. The most developed machinery thus forces the worker to work longer than the savage does, or than he himself did with the simplest, crudest tools.

How it continued (Raniero Panzieri, 1961):

In effetti, per Marx, il tempo libero « per la libera attività mentale e sociale degli individui » non coincide affatto semplicemente  con la riduzione della « giornata lavorativa ». Presuppone la trasformazione radicale delle condizioni del lavoro umano, l'abolizione del lavoro salariato, la « regolazione sociale del processo lavorativo ». Presuppone, cioè, l'integrale rovesciamento del rapporto capitalistico tra dispotismo e razionalità, per la formazione di una società amministrata da liberi produttori, nella quale —  con l'abolizione della produzione per la produzione  — programmazione,  il piano, la razionalità, la tecnologia siano sottoposti al permanente controllo delle forze sociali, e il lavoro possa così (e soltanto per questa via) diventare il « primo bisogno » dell'uomo.  Il superamento della divisione del lavoro, in quanto meta del  processo sociale, della lotta di classe, non significa un salto nel  « regno del tempo libero » ma la conquista del dominio delle  forze sociali sulla sfera della produzione. Lo « sviluppo completo »  dell'uomo, delle sue capacità fisiche e intellettuali (che tanti critici « umanisti » della « società industrial » amano richiamare)  compare come una mistificazione se si rappresenta come « godimento di tempo libero », come astratta « versatilità », ecc. indipendentemente dal rapporto dell'uomo col processo produttivo,  dalla riappropriazione del prodotto e del contenuto del lavoro da  parte del lavoratore, in una società di liberi produttori associati.

(In English):

Indeed, for Marx, free time "for the free mental and social activity of individuals" by no means coincides simply with the reduction of the "working day". He presupposes the radical transformation of the conditions of human work, the abolition of wage labor, the "social regulation of the labor process". That is, it presupposes the complete reversal of the capitalist relationship between despotism and rationality, for the formation of a society administered by free producers, in which - with the abolition of production for production - programming, the plan, rationality, and technology are subjected to the permanent control of social forces, and work may thus (and only in this way) become man's "first need". Overcoming the division of labor, as the goal of the social process, of the class struggle, does not mean a leap into the "realm of free time" but the conquest of the dominion of social forces over the sphere of production. The "complete development" of man, of his physical and intellectual capacities (which so many "humanist" critics of "industrial society" like to recall) appears as a mystification if it is represented as "enjoyment of free time", as abstract "versatility" , etc. independently of man's relationship with the production process, of the reappropriation of the product and the content of work by the worker, in a society of associated free producers.

How I spent my disposable time (2020):




Friday, December 25, 2020

Rolling Out the Vaccine

 This morning’s New York Times offers a panel discussion on the question of who should get vaccinated against Covid first.  Broadly speaking, they take a utilitarian position: it’s interesting that none disagreed with the positions taken by panelist Peter Singer, the world’s most prominent utilitarian philosopher.  And I wouldn’t either, except for one thing.

The vaccines approved by the FDA, along with those approved by other countries like China and Russia, have gone through the fastest possible testing.  Tens of thousands of individuals have been placed in control and treatment groups in order to determine two things: to what extent do the vaccines reduce the likelihood of getting infected (efficiency) and how common and severe are the side effects (safety)?  Meeting both criteria is sufficient for approval, which is how it should be.

But there is another crucial question, to what extent do the vaccines reduce transmission of the virus to others?  The answer does not affect whether these vaccines should be employed, but they do have large consequences for other policies during this phase of the pandemic, such as rules for separation and masking, restrictions on activities and events, resumption of in-person schooling, and how much should be spent on interventions like ventilation overhauls. To the extent that vaccination reduces transmission, other restrictions and investments can be modified as the vaccinated portion of the population increases.  Unfortunately, our knowledge of this issue is minimal.  We don’t have any published lab results at all, and we are at least months away from meaningful epidemiological data.

A rollout that prioritizes crucial learning could change this.  Some substantial portion of the early vaccines could be reserved for community trials.  A number of communities could be given treatments in which a designated proportion of the population is vaccinated as soon as possible; this portion could be varied (30%, 50%, 70%) so that a variety of treatments could be tested.  Others matched to them by relevant demographic, economic and other variables would be controls and would not receive any vaccines during the trial period.  (Note that the lack of blinding at the community level should not be a serious problem as long as unvaccinated individuals in treatment communities are given a convincing placebo.)   Everyone living in these communities would be tested regularly.  We could then observe differences between community infection rates corresponding to treatment and infer transmission probabilities under real world conditions.  It might also be possible to learn how transmission varies across the different viral strains that have emerged.  The entire operation could be accomplished within the space of a month or less.

What is disheartening is that not a single expert on the Times panel broached this possibility.  They are entirely preoccupied with the health significance of vaccination at the individual level and consider communities only in social and economic terms.  To the extent they consider the need for learning at all it is in the context of individual response to vaccines, such as comorbidities and interactions with other drugs people may be taking.

Where’s the public health?

Wednesday, December 23, 2020

Trump As The Grinch Who Stole Christmas

 So the Congress struggled for months after the House passed a $3.3 trillion followup Covid relief bill, which Senate Majority Leader McConnell blocked and kept blocking.  House Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin kept negotiating and coming up with this or that proposal, only to mostly have McConnell shoot it down, or sometimes Pres. Trump himself doing so.  Finally after the election, and with the threat of losing control of the Senate, McConnell suddenly decided a deal needed to be made, so sure enough, with Mnuchin supposedly representing Trump, a deal got cut.  It must be recognized that the push for having another round of direct payments was pushed by Trump, who threw out several numbers, and McConnell got it that this was popular. So he went along with Mnuchin's suggested $600 per person, half of what was sent out in the CARES round last spring.

The whole thing has also been linked to the Omnibus general budget spending package, which needs to get passed or the government will get shut down, with ongoing week by week Continuing Resolutions holding that off, the current one expiring on Monday.  It contains mostly things approved in the budget sent officially from Trump's OMB to Congress, although it is pretty clear he does not know what is in there.

So when the Congress managed to cut all sorts if possible things like aid to states and local governments as well as limiting liability of corporations for having conditions leading to workers getting Covid-19, but had about $300 billion for small businesses somewhat less for the $600 payments for those making under $75,000, not to mention a good deal less for continuing unemployment benefits set to expire the day after Christmas, and some other such things. Whew! It looked like this difficult, if highly imperfect, deal was cut just in time to keep lots of people from being dumped from benefits right after Christmas and also send out $600 to lots of people right after Christmas. Hooray!

But then last night Trump put out a video announcing his unhappiness with all this. On the one hand he called for something arguably desirable, a $2000 payment rather than $600, which has drawn forth Dem support at least from the House.  But then he also went on a rant against items in the Omnibus spending bill not part of the relief bill, notably about $5 billion in foreign aid and also some even smaller expenditures on such items as the Kennedy Center for Performing Arts and the Smithsonian, somehow suggesting incoherently that these monies were a wasteful part of the relief bill.  While it remains unclear what he is going to do in the end, for the moment he is not signing it, which means unemployment benefits might start ending right after Christmas, not to mention people not only not getting the supposed desired $2000 but even $600, and not to mention that hard pressed small businesses will not be able to apply for any of that $300 billion supposedly available for PPP loans.

So, indeed, President Trump is the Grinch Who Stole Christmas.

Barkley Rosser

PS: And of course Trump is also pardoning all kinds of criminals closely associated with him and has also vetoed the National Defense bill, first time that has happened in 60 years, something that maybe should happen, although his reasons are to prevent renaming military facilities away from Confederare officers and also to remove Section 230 that prevents him from suing social media companies that censor things he posts.  Quite a roll this grinch is on.