Tuesday, April 13, 2010

What Letter Defines The Shape of the Great Recession: L, U, V, or W?

And the answer is: None of the above. Maybe somewhere between an L and a V, although the disjuncture between the turning around of GDP growth last summer and the apparent (keep those fingers crossed) turning around of employment last month, could make a sort of argument for a U, except that we have not seen a fast enough upswing on the back end to justify it any more than a V.

Of course, there have been some V's in other countries, especially in East Asia, where some of the former tigers, such as Taiwan and South Korea had among the sharpest GDP declines in the world, but bounced hard and are booming again, probably being dragged along by the hyper growth of China.


Anonymous said...

I think the US is headed for a mixture of a F and U style recovery.
The Banks have looted the treasury, and the youth have no job prospects.

Daro said...

I thought this had been decided? It's a "Y". The no. of billionaires is up while the rest of society slides down the vertical slope.

TheTrucker said...

It's an "L". And it will remain an "L" until we get some serious action on immigration and trade.

Daro said...

An "L"? Why you moist-eyed, optimist... I agree on immigration. I'm suffering from disconnect to understand why deporting illegals is racist (as many claim). I know it's not. The disconnect is why SO many people are against sending them back. I'm on a working visa in Japan myself. If I vilate the terms... voop! I'm kicked out of the country. I understand this and accept it. Does this make me a bad person?

r l love said...


The unemployment rate among those without high-school diplomas here is above 15%. For college grads it is about 5%. For those not going to college there is a basic choice of flipping burgers or joining the military. This of course allows the Empire to export its culture without requiring those citizens with a voice to put their children in harm's way.

So your "disconnect to understand why deporting illegals is racist", does not make you a "bad person"; but it does make you a bad Democrat/Republican. The Hispanic vote will very possibly decide which Party will prevail in the coming elections etc. And the Hispanics are smart enough, in a cynical way that comes from a history of tyrannical circumstances, to know how to get something in return for their support. And of course they want a bigger slice of the American pie.

The upheaval and social turmoil of the Viet Nam era was as easy to eliminate as subsidizing agriculture (eliminate opportunities in rural areas while also displacing peasants in Mexico etc.) And... outsourcing manufacturing jobs, while subsidizing urban poverty. Then, simply ignoring the immigration laws (government employees are very capable when required to be lazy and irresponsible). All very clever when consideration is given to the fact that the costs are borne by the very people being manipulated into offering-up their young, while those who gain financially are also insulated from the dangers of 'their' hegemony.

The social engineering aspect of this that is especially clever though, is that the culture being exported brings with it the external costs of obesity and a long list of diet-related diseases. Plus, a cultural dependence on environmental damage that must be outsourced as a side-effect of growth. Then too the cultural model has external costs as a result of extraordinarily high crime rates, divorce rates, and many other social issues.

So, solving the military recruitment problems that were made evident during the Viet Nam war was actually beyond clever, it was diabolically so, but all in the name of God, naturally. So if it seems unreasonable for the social stigma of 'racism' to be used as a tool in the most elaborate social engineering scheme of all time, remember that 'God works in mysterious ways', (and just be relieved that Christians have evolved beyond the practice of just taking what they want). Consequently, if a small percentage of citizens are intelligent enough to see the scheme for what it is, (an evil scheme but an improvement nonetheless), what is the harm in labeling these people as 'racist'? It is not as if this tiny sect is likely to be 'well rounded' and supportive in the first place. Labels are tools to a social engineer and our democracy is the project.