Friday, June 3, 2011

The Optimism of a Double-Dip

A crisis is the method by which a capitalist economy partially purges itself of the effects of past mistakes while imposing misery on the masses.

Economists often characterize the outcomes as by the shape of letters of the alphabet. A "V" indicates a quick collapse and an equally quick recovery. "L" suggests a collapse followed by a very weak recovery. And a "W" indicates a double-dip in which the quick recovery is followed by another collapse. Ironically, our previous president was known as "W" will and our present president could be known as zero, which approximates the first letter of his last name.

A V-shaped recovery suggests that the economy was fundamentally strong, allowing the economy to quickly pick up steam. A W-shaped outcome is a telltale sign of an economy that was leaked to begin with, propped up by external support, which was withdrawn prematurely. For example, Roosevelt succumbed to outside pressure in 1937, leading to an expected setback. Under far less pressure, Obama followed suit.



Both the crisis and the recovery can only be understood in terms of the long-term processes that caused the initial collapse. In "The Confiscation of American Prosperity: From Right-Wing Extremism and Economic Ideology to the Next Great Depression" I tried to tell the story of the gradual weakening of the US economy. The book explained how the unusual postwar prosperity was created by a sequence of the Great Depression and then the war. The postwar period up to the late 1960s is often described as The Golden Age because the economy performed better than ever before.

The business class believed that this exceptional performance was the norm. As the economy began to falter in the late 1960s, capitalists set out to restore their sagging profits. During the Golden Age, prosperity also meant that competitive pressures were not strong. In the absence of competitive pressures, business had little need to improve productivity. Management could coast along assuming that high profits were due to their outstanding managerial skills.

Unprepared and unwilling to adapt to the new economic conditions, capitalists set out to remake the economic structure in a way that would allow profits to recover. However, they did so by subtracting from the rest of society, rather than by contributing anything productive. Anything that stood in the way of profit maximization, whether unions, regulation, or taxes, had to be swept away. Business was surprisingly successful in this endeavor, but it did nothing to make the economy stronger. In fact, this strategy undermined economic strength.

Obscene inequality of wealth and income meant that business would be unlikely to prosper by selling goods to the masses. The rise of international competition made that strategy less likely. Instead, business turned to finance, at the same time as the regulatory forces that might have imposed a modicum of rationality were no longer operative.

I use the term Confiscation of American Prosperity to indicate that in this period from the late 1960s until 2007, when the book was published, to indicate that growing profits were not a sign of strength, but an indication of how much capitalism was subtracting, or as Marx would say, vampire-like parasitically sucking away the strength of the economy.

I will not speculate whether the money thrown at the banks was a continuation of the process of confiscation or whether the people in charge actually believed that this misconceived strategy would be sufficient to create a quick recovery. In any case, it did little to the bleeding -- except for the large mass of the public, which had been being bled her for more than three decades, since the end of the Golden Age.

On top of the withdrawal of the federal life support for the economy, the confiscatory strategy has been escalated. The attack on unions, regulation, and taxes is now on steroids. If the previous attack was crucial in creating the present crisis, this all-out attack seems certain to make things considerably worse. A double-dip may be just an ice cream cone and any expectation of a W-like outcome may be overly optimistic.


4 comments:

hapa said...

the article text is duplicated from the middle to the end

Michael Perelman said...

My apologies.

Michael Perelman

Brenda Rosser said...

Re: "The attack on unions, regulation, and taxes is now on steroids."

It goes much further than this IMHO.
George Orwell wrote about our future being "dominated by a repressive surveillance and security state that used crude and violent forms of control."

Aldous Huxley envisioned a society "entranced by entertainment and spectacle, captivated by technology and seduced by profligate consumption." We were to be lulled into embracing our own oppression?

I tend to agree with Chris Hedges; Huxley's vision was merely the prelude to Orwellian oppression.

A Brave New Dystopia
by Chris Hedges – Truthdig
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com

Ken Houghton said...

I repeat what I've been saying since the "recovery effort" started with time-disproven policies: You're looking at the wrong letter style.

Think "Cursive Zed." Or abide in the Glory of March 1933-May 1937 not being considered a "recession period" (even ignoring all those six-month to three-year period of "recovery" from October 1873 to June 1897).

I would love to be wrong, but the market appear to be coming to my thinking, not the other way around.