Sunday, March 31, 2013

Mankiw’s Mistakes on the Long-Run Debt Issue

Greg Mankiw wants to lecture the President on fiscal sustainability. Alas, his op-ed is full of errors starting with:
Representative Paul D. Ryan, chairman of the House Budget Committee, has a plan to balance the federal budget in 10 years.
Should we just fall out of our chairs laughing at such an incredibly absurd statement? Ryan wants to cut tax rates but assume a level of tax revenues that is over $500 billion a year above what many analysts suggest. And I have a plan to replace Tim Duncan as the center for the Spurs even though I’m only 5 feet 6 inches. And then we get these canards:
With the exception of a few years starting in the late 1990s, when the Internet bubble fueled an economic boom, goosed tax revenue and made President Clinton look like a miracle worker, the federal government has run a budget deficit consistently for the last 40 years.
Internet bubble? Mankiw really seems to hate that the Clinton years, which started with the 1993 tax rates increases, had better economic performance that either the Reagan-Bush41 years or the Bush43 years. As far as the deficit being positive for all these other years, he should read what both Milton Friedman and Robert Barro were writing on the deficit back in 1979 and 1980 – that being that the debt in inflation adjusted terms was falling. Hey – I don’t mind a conservative economists lecturing the President on fiscal policy if he gets the facts right. This op-ed, however, fails to get a few key facts right.

1 comment:

Bill said...

Nobody has a clue how to balance the budget over 10 years. Nobody should pretend that they do.