Thursday, September 12, 2019

Whither Ukraine?

Or "wither Ukraine?" some might suggest?  But no, after nerly 30 years of serious economic stagnation and massive corruption, along with losing territory to neighboring Russia with whom it has on ongoing military conflict, things are looking up there.  GDP grew at 4 percent annually last quarter.  The  hryvnia currency has been the second most rapidly rising currency in the world during 2019.  There has even been a prisoner exchange with Russia.  All this comes under its new president, Volodymyr Zelensky, who until recently was playing a Ukrainian president on a TV show. That sounds like a joke, but so far he seems to be delivering the goods, including an apparent effort to combat the deeply entrenched corruption practiced by both his pro-Russian and pro-EU predecessors.

A curious aspect of this so far successful presidency seems to be the effort by President Trump to undermine it, or at least not help it.  $250 million in military aid has been canceled.  Is this more payoff to Vladimir Putin for a future Trump Tower in Moscow?  There have also been reported efforts led by Rudi Giuliani to get the Ukrainian government to open an investigation into alleged misdeeds by a son of Joe  Biden who worked for a Ukrainian company for awhile. There have also been efforts to get them to denny charges made against former Trump campaign manager, Paul Manafort.  Rumors are that the military aid is being held up until The Ukrainians deliver on the firrst of these items, which would be pathetic.  So far they do not seem to be going along.

I was in Kyiv (Kiev) last weekk for a nonlinear economic dynamics conference and can confirm that the optimistic feelings are shared by Ukrainian economists I met there, some of whom I have known for a long time and who have not been like this in the past.  Maybe it will not work out, but for now there definitely is optimism there. Ironically an advantage of not having had much economic growrth over the last 30 years is that there are few modern glass and steel buildings downtown, with many very beautiful per-revolutionary ones there, with sculptures on them and painted bright colors.  This goes along with various historical buildings and sites dating back nearly a 1000 years.

Barkley Rosser

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/461109-trump-administration-releases-250m-in-military-aid-to-ukraine

September 13, 2019

Trump administration releases $250M in military aid to Ukraine

Anonymous said...

The article should be dated September 12.

Anonymous said...

Real per capita GDP for Ukraine in 2018 was 25% lower than in 1988.

Anonymous said...

Lastly, there is a serious "fascist" element in Ukraine. I mean literally so.

rosserjb@jmu.edu said...

A.,

The release of military aid came from Trump as a result of a threatened bipartisan Congressional censure.

Yes, there is a fascist element in Ukraine, as there is in Poland, Hungary, Germany, France, the US, and many other nations unfortunately. As near as I can tell the current Ukrainian government has little support from such elements. If that were the case, I suspect the prisoner exchange with Russia would not have happened.

Anonymous said...

Yes, there is a fascist element in Ukraine, as there is in...

[ What an awful apology. Try learning about the literal monuments being built in Ukraine to participants in the Holocaust, monuments erected to literal Nazis. At least dispense with the apology. ]

rosserjb@jmu.edu said...

I did not apologize. Just stating facts. Poroshenko was backed by the fascist elements, but only won in western Ukraine where the ultra nationalists are strongest as well as in the neighborhoods of Kyiv where the wealthiest live. Zelendky goet 73 percent of the vote and also happens to be Jewish. Building of monuments to fasicists is going on locally. Zelensky's government is clearly a big improvement over Poroshenko's on this matter, a straightforward fact not needing any apology.

Anonymous said...

Yes, there is a fascist element in Ukraine, as there is in Poland, Hungary, Germany, France, the US, and many other nations...

[ What tripe, this is covering over or excusing the virulent fascist element through Ukraine. Ukraine has a severe fascist coterie that is routinely documented for those who pay any attention to such critically important matters. ]

Anonymous said...

Pay attention to the work of the courageous Ed Dolinsky: Ukrainian Jewish Committee, Director General

https://twitter.com/edolinsky/status/1173232577605492737

Learn about what fascism in Ukraine amounts to. Learn.

rosserjb@jmu.edu said...

And Zelensky ran against that faction, which supported his opponent, former President Poroshenko. Is this not what we want, Anonymous?

Anonymous said...

And Zelensky ran against that faction, which supported his opponent, former President Poroshenko. Is this not what we want, Anonymous?

[ Yes, I agree completely and this makes me hopeful. What I did not want was to let the problem go unmentioned, since the problem will not just resolve itself but will need to be pointed to in Ukraine and outside with history being properly recorded and taught with the hope that understanding will along.

I agree with you now completely.

Thank you so much. ]

rosserjb@jmu.edu said...

Things could easily still go bad in a lot of ways. Those nasty people are still there. But for now, things are really looking up for long-suffering Ukraine. So we should appreciate it while it lasts.

rosserjb@jmu.edu said...

BTW, of course I was completely on top of this latest brouhaha coming from poor intelligence whistleblower, since apparently sat on, who revealed that indeed Trump was pressuring Velensky as I reported in this post.Just for the record.