Sunday, November 15, 2020

Biden Won Because Of White Men?

 OK, I confess I am mystified.  An article in The Guardian by Musa al-Gharbi looks at the data now available on voting patterns in the US presidential elections of 2016 compared to 2020.  Almost all groups moved towards being more pro-Trump, including both Black men and women, Hispanic men and women, Asian men and women, and white women.  The only group that moved away from Trump was white men, with his margin declining from 31% to 23%.  It is true that the minority groups overall supported Biden more than Trump, but they did so by smaller margins than they supported Clinton over him in 2016.  Some sub=groups of minorities actually favored Trump, including Cuban Americans and Vietnamese Americans.  The only sub-group moving away from Trump was Japanese Americans.

In terms of swing states, the move of Hispanics toward Trump gave him Florida and Texas, and the move of Blacks toward him gave him North Carolina. However the flips of Michigan and Arizona were led by shifts of white men.

As I opened, I really do not know what is going on with all this, although the article noted that most of these trends have been going on for some time, if not especially noticed before.

Barkley Rosser

15 comments:

The Sophist said...

That article is .... perplexing. The only way I can make sense of this fact-pattern, is to suggest that we need to wait until we get more data, more analysis. If he's right, then something horrible is happening, and it'd be good to know this. But it's still early days. I remember in 2016, people were still talking about "economic anxiety"; it took some time before further studies showed that it was really racism that drove Shitlord voters.

Tom Hickey said...

1. DJT is a very savvy politician that knows how to connect with "ordinary folks." Scott Adams, who predicted his rise called him a "master persuader." This is one reason, but it will diminish and perhaps disappear when DJT leaves the scene. Regardless of whether he stays in office, he will be political force for some time and there will be jockeying for the succession. DJT may go, but "Trumpism" (nationalist populism) won't disappear.

2. The more serious problem for Democrats is that they are no longer perceived as the party of the middle class and working class, The GOP has eaten Democrats lunch on this for several reasons, but mostly because Dems lost the plot in trying to capture the center as the GOP moved right.

Here is an article that attempts to explain it.

The Grand New Party

3. The Democratic establishment led by the DNC has alienated their progressive bas, dampening intensity and loosing activists.

The positive spin is that the Democratic Party will eventuall wake up to this and shift emphasis back to the middle class and working class. The GOP is starting to recognize that they need to appeal to the new demographics that are leading to a "brown" America. This will mean two parties sharing a multiethnic electorate based on conservative and liberal lines, each of which will adapt to shifting conditions, like climate change.

Anonymous said...

I think it might have been due to his denigrating those that serve or have served in the military as losers and suckers - many Vietnam veterans are about 65-80 now and many of their fathers were WWII veterans and so, they may have voted for him 2016 for reasons that Tom Hickey mentioned, but they may have switched in 2020 (plus many seemed to support Rs down ballot). Of course, Trump feels that those in the military are losers and suckers. He went to college during Vietnam - box checked - avoided draft - easy for him to do. He then got a diagnosis of 'bone spurs' from a doctor that rented office space from his father - box checked - avoided draft - easy for him to do. In his view, why did not everyone do this and therefore, he views them as losers and suckers, especially those that gave the 'last full measure of devotion' or were captured (McCain).

Also, is Trump really planning to pull troops from Afghanistan out before Christmas? Kabul will be like Saigon with helicopters pulling people from rooftops as the Taliban storm the city.

Fred C. Dobbs said...

ABC News: Judges appear increasingly frustrated with Trump's legal claims about election

The recent scene in Clark County, Nevada, has become increasingly common in courthouses around the country as President Donald Trump continues to push thinly supported allegations of election misconduct and fraud.

When Republican lawyers in Nevada complained their observers were not close enough if they could not hear everything poll workers were saying, U.S. District Judge Andrew Gordon pushed back.

"At what point does this get ridiculous?" the exasperated judge, an appointee of President Barack Obama, asked before ruling against the Republicans.

In court hearings and opinions around the country, judges are voicing similar frustrations with the Trump campaign's legal filings to a degree rarely seen in venues where political rhetoric is generally unwelcome, experts and courthouse veterans said.

"Judge after judge after judge has asked, in essence, 'Where is the beef?'" said Karl Racine, the attorney general for the District of Columbia and a frequent Trump critic, in a call with reporters Friday.

"We have seen numerous instances where affidavits have been filed … only to be immediately pulled back once tested in state and federal court," said Racine, whose own lawsuit against Trump in connection with the president’s Washington, D.C., hotel is on hold pending appeal. "I would not be surprised that if these baseless allegations continue, judges will begin to threaten and indeed issue sanctions."

The Trump campaign and its supporters have filed at least 18 cases in battleground states, targeted because the president trailed Democrat Joe Biden by a comparatively narrow margin. With rare exception, the Trump campaign has been losing in court -- regardless of whether the judges were appointed by Democratic or Republican presidents. The filings have only garnered two favorable rulings to date, and numerous denials and dismissals. ...

Fred C. Dobbs said...

Trump still won among white men, but by less than before. Go figure.

"Though he still took a majority, according to the
exit poll, this was down to 58 percent from 62 percent."

Donald Trump made gains in every demographic except for white men

Newsweek - November 5

President Donald Trump upped his vote share across demographics in 2020, except for with white men, according to exit polling.

According to Edison Research's exit poll, the Republican incumbent is up with Black men and women, Latino men and women and white women.

With Black men, his vote share went up five percent from 13 percent in 2016 to 18 in 2020, with Black women it doubled from four percent to eight percent.

Joe Biden Increased Share of Michigan Union Vote, Beat Trump By 15 Points
How Many Votes Are Left to Count in Nevada, Arizona and Other States?

These demographics still heavily favored the Democratic candidates though, despite Trump's gains, with 80 percent of Black men and 91 percent of Black women asked stating they opted for Biden.

However, polling had suggested prior to the election that Biden might have less support among Black voters than his predecessor Hillary Clinton did.

With Latino men, it increased four percent, from 32 percent to 36 percent, and Latino women was up from 25 percent to 28 percent. These voters still overwhelmingly went for the Democratic ticket, with 61 percent of Latino men and 70 percent of Latino women asked backing Biden.

Latino voters have been seen as one of the reasons Trump was able to secure victory in Florida, which has been called his way, this time out.

With white women the increase was three percent, from 52 percent to 55 percent.

White women were seen as a key focus for Trump in his campaign, with him having spoken of the "suburban housewife" previously and suggesting those he deemed to be in that bracket would vote for him.

However, despite these rises he was down with white men by four percent. Though he still took a majority, according to the exit poll, this was down to 58 percent from 62 percent. Meanwhile Biden's share was at 40 percent compared to 31 percent for Hillary Clinton in 2016. This shift meant the gap cut from 31 points to 13 points between the Republican and the Democrat candidate this time out.

This also reflected an overall loss with not college-educated white voters, down from 67 percent of the vote to 64 percent.

In general, the polling saw Biden build on Clinton's share of the white vote overall by five points. ...

Fred C. Dobbs said...

The New World Order That President Biden Will Inherit

NY Times - editorial - November 15

President-elect Joe Biden has signaled that he will move swiftly to restore dignity to the badly sullied image of the United States; respect for the professionals of America’s diplomatic, intelligence and military services; and a more predictable, nuanced and sympathetic approach to foreign relations. That message of a restoration of norms is likely to resonate in many capitals around the world, as it did with an electorate that gave Mr. Biden a decisive victory over Donald Trump.

There is much that Mr. Biden can do in his first 100 days. He has already vowed to promptly rejoin the Paris accord on climate change and to make climate action central to his administration. He has declared his intention to restore the United States’ relationship with the World Health Organization, signaling that the United States will join forces with the rest of the world to halt the rampage of the coronavirus.

Mr. Biden is also expected to organize a summit of democracies, and to recommit the United States to exposing human rights abuses wherever they arise, whether in China, Russia, Saudi Arabia or Turkey. At the same time, he will seek ways to revive the nuclear deal with Iran, and agree with Russia to extend the New START treaty on limiting strategic nuclear arms. Hopefully, Mr. Biden will terminate American support for Saudi Arabia’s terrible war in Yemen.

These are all welcome signs of America’s imminent return to a role in the world that better reflects our historical values.

The team Mr. Biden is said to be assembling looks as if it will be composed of veterans of administrations past and paid-up members of the foreign policy establishment. If Republicans retain control of the Senate, Mr. Biden’s appointments could be constrained by the need to get them confirmed, while the scope of his actions will often be reduced to what can be accomplished through executive orders.

Even a Senate controlled by Democrats would not presage a dramatic departure in American strategies and policies. Mr. Biden may tone down the trade war with China, but contentious differences on issues such as 5G networks or China’s claims in the South China Sea will remain at the fore. Whatever hold President Vladimir Putin may have had on Mr. Trump almost never translated into a lifting of sanctions, and Democrats are not likely to seek a reset with Russia. Mr. Trump’s bromance with Kim Jong-un did little to change the U.S. stance on North Korea. Mr. Trump’s approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was decidedly one-sided, yet there had been no movement toward a two-state settlement in the years before Mr. Trump became president, and there is little indication that any such movement is imminent no matter who’s in the White House — or where the U.S. Embassy is. ...

Fred C. Dobbs said...

Mr. Biden is likely to continue Mr. Trump’s attempts to withdraw from foreign wars and be reluctant to enter new conflicts, though with more nuance and more concern for allies. While Mr. Biden will definitely not emulate Mr. Trump’s zero-sum approach to trade, with tariffs slapped on friend and foe alike, free trade is not something Democratic voters are always keen on. While most NATO allies and members of the European Union will celebrate the exit of Mr. Trump, the United States is likely to continue insisting that NATO allies start paying a fair share for the common defense. The Europeans, for their part, have recognized that the United States is no longer the undisputed boss of the free world.

In short, the world is not what it was in 2016, nor can it go back to the status quo ante. China is considerably more assertive, and countering Beijing’s aggressions while recognizing its legitimate demands and seeking its help in containing North Korea or reducing carbon emissions will require creative new approaches. So will dealing with a right-wing president in Brazil or a tenacious dictator in Venezuela, or negotiating further nuclear arms reductions with Russia while maintaining sanctions, or trying to placate Israel and several Gulf Arab states while reviving a deal with their archenemy Iran.

It is a restive world, requiring constant adaptation and engagement from its most powerful democracy. But the importance of vision, expertise, honesty and simple decency in the management of world affairs cannot be overstated. Mr. Trump’s “America First” approach meant, first and foremost, reducing international affairs to the same level as his real-estate wheeling-dealing: What’s in it for me? The president’s infamous phone conversation with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, the one that got him impeached, provided an apt motto for his administration: “I would like you to do us a favor though.”

It is understandable that allies will harbor some doubts over whether Trumpism is finished for good, especially while Mr. Trump clings indecently to the hope of staying in power. But the expectation that a Biden-Harris administration will at least end the volatile and unpredictable lurches of the past four years has already elicited relief from allies who suffered Mr. Trump’s disdain. And it has caused anxiety among illiberal leaders who reveled in Mr. Trump’s camaraderie and the dimming of America’s beacon.

Simply abandoning Mr. Trump’s approach is immeasurably important for America and the world. The strength of the United States has always derived as much from the soft power of its democracy, freedoms and values as from its battleships and drones. That strength is multiplied by America’s alliances among democracies in the East and West.

There will be plenty of time to sort out why the United States fell for Mr. Trump or whether he can come back. President-elect Biden has signaled that he intends to lead America back into the international arena, and whatever their qualms or doubts, America’s friends and allies should not wait to join forces in tackling the business of the day — a global pandemic and the future of the planet, to name just two items on the agenda.

Fred C. Dobbs said...

"Donald Trump made gains in every demographic except for white men"

It would be plausible to suggest that Biden won because

* he did significantly better in the Rust Belt states.

* he did better with African-American voters

* he did better with Latinos (except in Florida)

* a smaller majority of white men voted for Trump.

Fred C. Dobbs said...

Is this anything?

Trump aide promises ‘very professional transition’ to Biden

"If the Biden-Harris ticket is determined to be the winner" ...

via @BostonGlobe - November 16

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — President Donald Trump’s national security adviser promised a “very professional transition” to the administration of President-elect Joe Biden in an interview broadcast Monday, even as Trump continues to falsely claim he won the November election.

Speaking to the Global Security Forum hosted in part by Qatar, Robert O’Brien several times mentioned the transition and referred to recent peace deals that Bahrain, Sudan and the United Arab Emirates struck with Israel as “a great legacy for the president to have as he leaves office.”

While caveating that Trump did have outstanding court challenges, O'Brien's comments signaled some of the firmest statements yet from a senior administration official acknowledging Biden's win in the Nov. 3 vote.

“If the Biden-Harris ticket is determined to be the winner — obviously things look that way now — we'll have a very professional transition from the National Security Council. There's no question about it,” O'Brien said. “They're going to have very professional folks coming in to take these positions.”

He added: “We've passed the baton and had peaceful, successful transitions even in the most contentious periods.”

Since losing, Trump has made unsubstantiated claims about the election on Twitter. There is no evidence of widespread fraud in the vote. Officials from both the Democratic and Republican parties have said the poll went well, as have international observers. The federal Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency also says: “The November 3rd election was the most secure in American history.”

O'Brien, Trump's fourth national security adviser, previously served as his special envoy on hostage affairs. ...

Anonymous said...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/opinion/biden-foreign-policy-international-relations.html

November 15, 2020

China is considerably more assertive, and countering Beijing’s aggressions...

[ New York Times racism. A ceaseless need to portray a peaceful China as threatening and war-prone. ]

Anonymous said...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/opinion/biden-foreign-policy-international-relations.html

November 15, 2020

China is considerably more assertive, and countering Beijing’s aggressions...

[ The United States can attack other countries ceaselessly, levy sanctions over and over even for decades but the New York Times has no concern. The Times coverage of China is simply racist, racist now as it was in 1882 when the Chinese Exclusion Act was passed. ]

Fred C. Dobbs said...

"If the Biden-Harris ticket is determined to be the winner" ...

One would guess that would be after/if

* the Electoral College chooses Biden/Harris in December, and

* the Congress ratifies that choice in January

Then & only then (maybe?) ...

This is how Presidents set precedents

jamzo said...

if you frame a discussion as which voting groups moved toward or from you get a picture of movement within polling groups

if this is your interest whooppee

what it means requires are the movements observed significant

we know that trump strategy included trying to reduce size of voting in biden oriented
groups .,..

article would seem to indicate he succeeded to some extent

Fred C. Dobbs said...

Or, one might say, it was about energizing
your respective bases.

Trump got more votes than last time, despite
losing suburban women it is said.

Biden got way more votes than HRC,
and many than Trump, this time
in the right places.

rosserjb@jmu.edu said...

Yeah, I also say "whoopee"!!!!