Saturday, September 12, 2020

The Bahrain-Israel Mutual Recognition

 This freshly announced mutual recognition follows the one between the UAE and Israel, which set a new pattern, with Bahrain and possibly others (Oman?) predicted to follow.  I am not surprised it was Bahrain that was next, although it may prove to be the only one.  There are several reasons why it was most likely to be next, and why we might not see Oman join in, although that cannot be ruled out.

I see three reasons why Bahrain was most likely to be next, although there are really two fundamental ones with the third arising from those.  The most fundamental one is that of the 6 members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), now largely in shatters due to the sanctions on one of them (Qatar) by several others (Saudi Arabia (KSA), UAE, and Bahrain), is the only one where a Sunni minority is ruling over a Shia majority, with the Sunni-Shia conflict a central part of the conflict with Iran that many of them have, with Iran run by Shia, of course, where they are a majority.  The Shia of Bahrain have been restive and rose up against King Hamad during the Arab Spring that began in 2011, only to be violently put down. But, unsurprisingly, the king and those around him are especially worried about the Shia and have strongly supported the anti-Iran coalition, which includes Israel. It is this alliance that is at the heart of the new round of recognitions, with UAE leader, Prince Zayed, arguably the leader of the anti-Iran group in the GCC, along with KSA Crown Prince, MbS, although due to opposition of the Saudi religious leaders who are concerned about the Palesrtinians, MbS himself is not seen as likely to follow UAE and Bahrain to recognize Israel, although there is clearly a de facto alliance against Iran between them.

A second reason Bahrain was more likely to be next is that it is more subject to US pressure as it hosts the home base in the Persian Gulf of the US Navy's 5th fleets, something rarely mentioned in the media, and has been since the 1950s. That dates back to when what is now the UAE was still being ruled by UK as the Trucial States.  On top of that Bahrain is the smallest of the GCC members and also is the one that has been running out of oil more than the others (all of them produce at least some oil).  In short, King Hamad is much more susceptible to US pressure to recognize Israel, although given his unhappiness with his Shia population and support for the anti-Iran coalition, he has been more inclined to go along anyway.

Another reason, which basically follows these others, is that Bahrain is indeed part of the GCC group that is sanctioning/boycotting fellow GCC member, Qatar, for its apparent unwillingness to join the anti-Iran coalition.  Indeed, Qatar and Iran have a joint deal for managing certain natural gas fields in the Gulf, and Qatar, which has the world's highest per capita income, also hosts al=Jazeera, which has reported on dissident movements in several of its GCC partners, another source of anger.  Of course, while Trump initially forgot about this as MbS and Jared Kushner pushed him into supporting the anti-Qatar sanctions, Qatar hosts a major US air base, so the US military did manage to get to Trump to back off overtly supporting the anti-Qatar boycott, although the US has failed to bring that conflict to a conclusion.

So, what about the other two members of the GCC: Oman and Kuwait?  I cannot rule out Oman recognizing Israel, but it lacks several of the elements one finds in both Bahrain and UAE.  One is that it alone among Muslim nations in the world is not dominated by either Sunnis or Shia.  The majority of the population and the leaders are Ibadi Muslims, an ancient sect of Islam, that is barely present anywhere else in the world. But that has allowed Oman to stand aside from the regional Sunni-Shia conflict, and indeed it has played a role as intermediary between the two sides.  It was through Oman that the Obama admin made its initial approaches to Iran when it started negotiating the JCPOA nuclear deal that Trump has since withdrawn from. It is also Oman that shares with Iran the crucial Strait of Hormuz at the entrance to the Persian Gulf.  As a result of this, Oman has not joined the anti-Qatar sanctions/boycott, although it is not as pro-Iran as Qatar seems to be.  Oman is extremely independent and proud of being so.  It joined the GCC to keep the Saudis happy, who organized the group, but it does what it wants.  It indeed has apparently had informal friendly relations with Israel, which may lead it to recognize Israel as part of its being friendly with everybody policy.  But it would not be doing so either as part of an anti-Iran alliance or to kowtow to the US, although it does not mind keeping the US happy as well.

As for Kuwait, it has long been at the top of per capita income among this group, having the second largest pool of oil in the world, one of the reasons Saddam Hussein invaded the place.  It has been surpassed by Qatar in per capita income, but it remains very high up there and is also fairly small, although bigger than either Bahrain or Qatar.  The problem for Kuwait is that it almost borders Iran, with just a small amount of Iraq between them (where the Shatt-al-Arab empties into the Gulf, the short river that is formed when the Tigris and the Euphrates come together).  It is predominantly Sunni and has a long history of friendship with the Saudi royal family.  But its proximity to Iran has it not wanting to join in the overtly anti-Iran alliance, in that regard being a bit like Oman.  Also, it has a large Palestinian refugee population, possibly up to a quarter of the population, and recognizing Israel is not something favored by that portion of their population.

So, it is not surprising that Bahrain has recognized Israel.  Oman might do so also, although I am not holding my breath on that one, and if they do, it will be to maintain their independent "friendly with all sides" approach rather than the kowtowing to UAE and US that is going on heavily with Bahrain.

Barkley Rosser

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html

September 12, 2020

Another Gulf State Recognizes Israel. Here’s Why It Matters.
The announcement that Bahrain would establish full diplomatic relations with Israel leaves open the possibility that more Arab states will follow.
By Mark Landler

President Trump made a bit of history on Friday when he announced the Persian Gulf kingdom of Bahrain would establish full diplomatic relations with Israel. Bahrain’s move, a month after the United Arab Emirates normalized relations, brings the number of Arab countries that recognize Israel to four (Egypt did so in 1979, Jordan in 1994), and furthers a strategic realignment of the Middle East.

But this latest Arab-Israeli entente is neither a bolt from the blue nor the result of months of delicate shuttle diplomacy by the Trump administration. Israel and the Arab leaders in the Persian Gulf had been quietly cultivating ties for years, united by their common antipathy toward Iran and worries about a vacuum in the region because of American retrenchment.

“The import of this is much more strategic than peace-related,” said Martin S. Indyk, who served as American ambassador to Israel under Bill Clinton and Middle East peace envoy under Barack Obama.

The White House harnessed these forces, recognizing an opportunity to make progress on one front after its failure on another: brokering a peace accord between Israel and the Palestinians.

Mr. Trump’s cultivation of Saudi Arabia and its gulf neighbors was an important ingredient, as was his desire to sell these countries advanced weaponry. But it was serendipity, as much as spadework, that set the stage for the White House ceremony Tuesday at which the Israelis and Emiratis will formalize their new relationship. (Bahrain will send officials to the ceremony.)

What are the advantages of closer ties?

Israel and the gulf Arab states began establishing tentative links after the Oslo peace accords between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization in 1993. They opened trade missions in each other’s capitals, though several were closed after a surge of Israeli-Palestinian violence in the second Intifada, which erupted in 2000....

Anonymous said...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/13/world/middleeast/israel-bahrain-mideast-persian-gulf.html

September 13, 2020

In Arab States’ Embrace, Israelis See a Reshaped Mideast
Normalized ties with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain raise hopes in Israel that it is finally gaining acceptance in its volatile neighborhood.
By David M. Halbfinger

JERUSALEM — Since its founding, Israel has seen itself as a modern-day Sparta, a tiny fortress nation-state in a hostile desert, whose survival depended on its internal cohesion and sheer military strength.

All around it were Arab and Muslim enemies who denounced the Jewish state as a colonizing interloper, an outpost of foreign intruders who were bound to be evicted, sooner or later, like all their predecessors back to the Crusaders.

But Israel’s back-to-back agreements to normalize ties with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, to be marked in a signing ceremony at the White House on Tuesday — and the much-buzzed-about possibility that other Arab nations could follow suit — are causing some Israelis to ask whether a deeper shift may, after years in the making, finally be underway in the Middle East.

Could their country at last be gaining acceptance in the region as a legitimate member of the neighborhood?

Formal diplomatic relations will mean a great deal to Israel after its long wait in isolation: the exchange of ambassadors, establishment of direct flights, new destinations for tourists once travel becomes possible again and the start or acceleration of a host of other commercial, cultural and scientific endeavors that until now could be conducted only in the shadows.

But Dr. Yitshak Kreiss, director general of Sheba Medical Center, Israel’s largest hospital, and a former military surgeon general, said that the biggest impact could be in changing the way ordinary Israelis think about their place in the region....

Anonymous said...

September 13, 2020

Coronavirus

Israel

Cases   ( 155,604)
Deaths   ( 1,119)

Deaths per million   ( 122)

-----------------------------------

July 4, 2020

Coronavirus

Israel

Cases ( 29,170)
Deaths ( 330)

Deaths per million ( 36)

Anonymous said...

Having apparently approached a containment of the coronavirus, the Israeli government incautiously opened schools and businesses, and the result has been a persistent community infection spread contributing to what are now 155,604 cases in the small country as compared to 85,184 through all of mainland China.

Anonymous said...

September 13, 2020

Coronavirus

US

Cases ( 6,708,458)
Deaths ( 198,520)

India

Cases ( 4,845,003)
Deaths ( 79,754)

Mexico

Cases ( 663,973)
Deaths ( 70,604)

France

Cases ( 381,094)
Deaths ( 30,916)

UK

Cases ( 368,504)
Deaths ( 41,628)

Germany

Cases ( 261,247)
Deaths ( 9,428)

Canada

Cases ( 136,642)
Deaths ( 9,171)

China

Cases ( 85,184)
Deaths ( 4,634)

Anonymous said...

September 13, 2020

Coronavirus   (Deaths per million)

UK   ( 613)
US   ( 599)
Mexico   ( 546)
France   ( 473)

Canada   ( 243)
Germany   ( 112)
India   ( 58)
China   ( 3)

Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 11.3%, 8.1% and 10.6% for the United Kingdom, France and Mexico respectively.

Anonymous said...

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-14/Chinese-mainland-reports-10-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TM4x96XedW/index.html

September 14, 2020

Chinese mainland reports 10 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths

The Chinese mainland registered 10 new COVID-19 cases on Sunday, all from overseas, the National Health Commission said on Monday.

This is the 29th consecutive day without domestic transmissions on the Chinese mainland.

No deaths from the disease were reported on Sunday while 16 patients were discharged from hospitals.

The total number of confirmed cases stands at 85,194 and the death toll at 4,634, while 378 asymptomatic patients are under medical observation.

Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-06/Chinese-mainland-reports-10-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-Tyvqw9qrW8/img/2cb21af19b41483cb23b64805c2108ac/2cb21af19b41483cb23b64805c2108ac.jpeg

Chinese mainland new imported cases

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-14/Chinese-mainland-reports-10-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TM4x96XedW/img/6268b711a14942bf81bbb4d2bf2a30e3/6268b711a14942bf81bbb4d2bf2a30e3.jpeg

Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-14/Chinese-mainland-reports-10-new-COVID-19-cases-all-from-overseas-TM4x96XedW/img/cc08b819727c4b45b11af15fcdf329f4/cc08b819727c4b45b11af15fcdf329f4.jpeg

Anonymous said...

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2020/09/whether-its-covid-or-brexit-this.html

September 14, 2020

Whether its COVID or Brexit, this government is continuing to fail terribly at everything it does. Will Conservative MPs do anything about it?

-- Simon Wren-Lewis

Anonymous said...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/14/us/politics/us-war-crimes-yemen-saudi-arabia.html

September 14, 2020

War Crimes Risk Grows for U.S. Over Saudi Strikes in Yemen
State Department officials have raised alarms about the legal risk in aiding airstrikes that kill civilians. The Trump administration recently suppressed findings as it sold more weapons to Gulf nations.
By Michael LaForgia and Edward Wong

[ A policy begun by the Obama administration and continuing, and likely instrumental in the closer ties generated between Gulf nations and Israel. ]

Anonymous said...

September 14, 2020

Coronavirus

US

Cases   ( 6,717,302)
Deaths   ( 198,639)

rosserjb@jmu.edu said...

At least the US Congress, with some GOPs joining in has voted against US military support for Saudi war in Yemen, but not by a 2/3 margin large enough to overcome presidential veto. Maybe this will change in the not too distant future.

Anonymous said...

Barkley Rosser:

At least the US Congress, with some GOPs joining in has voted against US military support for Saudi war in Yemen, but not by a 2/3 margin large enough to overcome presidential veto. Maybe this will change in the not too distant future.

[ Important, indeed. ]

Anonymous said...

The extent to which shopping all through my neighborhood has come to mean Amazon in particular and some other online buying and little store traffic is startling and there is every reason to think the pattern will continue since as far as I can tell my neighbors are pleased with the pattern.  Amazon has been terrific for me as well.

I was from the beginning and continue to be appalled that the opportunity to have an Amazon headquarters in New York City was fought by assorted Democratic representatives and considered unimportant by Paul Krugman. How could the broad employment prospects of a central technology innovator not have been completely understood as recently as 2019? After all, similar companies cluster.

Anonymous said...

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1305506522441699333

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I haven't seen much reporting on Israel's coronavirus disaster. But it shows how easily gains can dissipate if you get careless; and now they're entering a second lockdown

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eh4XOAWWoAE0MRz?format=jpg&name=small

9:59 AM · Sep 14, 2020

[ I have been repeatedly writing about the plight of Israel since July, since the lessons to be learned are so important. ]

Anonymous said...

September 14, 2020

Coronavirus

Israel

Cases   ( 159,290)
Deaths   ( 1,136)

Deaths per million   ( 124)

-----------------------------------

July 4, 2020

Coronavirus

Israel

Cases ( 29,170)
Deaths ( 330)

Deaths per million ( 36)

Anonymous said...

Having apparently approached a containment of the coronavirus, the Israeli government incautiously opened schools and businesses, and the result has been a persistent community infection spread contributing to what are now 159,290 cases in the small country as compared to 85,194 through all of mainland China.

Beyond the mistake of the incautious opening, the need is to look to what is obviously an unanticipated institutional public health or healthcare system weakness in Israel.  Determining how the Israeli healthcare system can be strengthened, can serve as a model.

Anonymous said...

September 14, 2020

Coronavirus

US

Cases   ( 6,729,200)
Deaths   ( 198,744)

Anonymous said...

September 14, 2020

Coronavirus

US

Cases   ( 6,740,937)
Deaths   ( 198,833)

Anonymous said...

September 14, 2020

Coronavirus

Israel

Cases   ( 160,368)
Deaths   ( 1,136)

Deaths per million   ( 124)

Unfortunately, reported coronavirus cases in Israel have climbed still further today, beyond 160,000. The need in looking to Israel is to understand how damaging an incautious opening of schools and businesses can be. I am saddened.

Anonymous said...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/14/opinion/trump-biden.html

September 14, 2020

The G.O.P. Plot to Sabotage 2021
Republicans are already acting as if there’s no next year.
By Paul Krugman

Nobody knows for sure who will win in November. Joe Biden holds the advantage right now, but between the vagaries of the Electoral College and whatever October surprises the Trumpists cook up — you know they’re coming — who knows?

One thing that’s clear, however, is that Republicans — not just Donald Trump, but his whole party — are acting as if there’s no tomorrow. Or, more precisely, they’re acting as if there’s no next year.

And this means that if Biden does win, he will have to govern in the face of what amounts to nonstop policy sabotage from his political opponents.

To see what I mean about acting as if there’s no next year, consider the large (and illegal) indoor rally Trump held Sunday in Nevada.

Before the release of Bob Woodward’s new book, you might have argued that Trump doesn’t believe the science and didn’t realize that his event might well sicken and kill many people. But we now know that he’s well aware of the risks, and has been all along. He just doesn’t care.

Or consider Trump’s weeks of silence and inaction on the wildfires ravaging Western states. It’s true that he won’t win California, Oregon or Washington. But he’s supposed to be the president of America, not just red states.

Furthermore, those states account for almost 19 percent of the U.S. economy; you might think that he’d care about the damage they’re suffering, which will spill over to the rest of the country. But he clearly doesn’t.

For me, however, the most striking demonstration of Republican refusal to think ahead is the fact that nothing has been done to alleviate either the suffering of unemployed Americans — who lost much of the benefits that were sustaining them at the end of July — or the looming fiscal crisis of state and local governments.

I read a number of business newsletters that try to offer guidance on future economic and policy developments; early in the summer just about all of them predicted that the Democratic House and the Republican Senate would reach some kind of compromise on economic relief. The unemployed would keep getting enhanced benefits, although less than the $600-a-week supplement they’d been getting under the CARES Act; state and local governments would get significant help, although not as much as Democrats wanted.

But there was no deal, just Trump executive memorandums that authorized some extra payments and a gimmick that has already fizzled. What happened?

My interpretation is while Democrats passed a relief bill that was supposed to serve as a starting point for negotiations way back in May, Republicans dithered, held back both by hard-line right-wingers and by fantasies of a V-shaped economic recovery. And by the time they realized that their fantasies wouldn’t come true, it was too late to take action that would have much impact on the election. So why bother doing anything?

That is, it’s as if Republicans don’t expect to win, and they figure that if they do, they’ll deal with the mess somehow....

Anonymous said...

What I realize now, after a few days of consideration, is that the agreements the Trump administration negotiated between the Gulf nations and Israel was singularly important to supporters of Israel whether Democrats or Republicans. Israelis consider the agreements critically important. These agreements, taken as securing Israel, beyond only symbolically, are being taken as having shaped a lasting foreign policy legacy for the president.