I certainly hope not, but it is not out of the question. There is a serious split within the new Biden administration over how to approach getting the US back into the JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran, which, just for the record, the US withdrew from even though it was the US that had violated it by not fully withdrawing economic sanctions against Iran, a decision made during the Obama administration that negotiated the deal, while Iran was not in violation and continued to adhere to it for quite some time after the US withdrew to condemnation by the other parties to the deal, which included western European nations as well as Russia and China.
Throughout the campaign Biden expressed an intention to get back into the agreement. But some of his foreign policy appointees have raised conditions for doing so that might delay or even block doing so, with such a delay dangerous because in June there will be a presidential election in Iran where most are forecasting that current President Rouhani, who negotiated the deal and supports the US reentering will be replaced by a hardliner who may well simply oppose the deal. There is a not very large window for doing this. It is pretty obvious that this looks like extending the nuclear START with Russia: it should simply be done without demanding special favors or actions from Iran, just START is likely to be extended as is, with Putin apparently accepting Biden's offer for a simple five-year extension. But then, Russia is much more powerful than Iran is.
Who wants to hold things up? Apparently Biden's incoming SecState Blinken and his National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan. Both want Iran to get itself back into obeying the accord before the US makes any moves to lower economic sanctions. On top of that, Sullivan wants Iran to agree to additions to the agreement to limit its ballistic missile program, items never in the original deal, even if it has been a source of anger by regional allies opposed to the deal like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel. The latter would certainly delay any resumption of the deal past the June election and outright kill it, while the former very likely would. It looks pretty obvious that the US needs to offer some sort of simultaneity of reducing sanctions as Iran moves to ending the uranium enrichment activities it started up after the US withdrew.
There is reason to be hopeful that these hawkish proponents of making it hard for Iran to allow the US back into the deal may get ignored. The most important is that reportedly Biden has appointed Robert Malley as the special negotiator on this matter. Malley's publicly stated views are not in agreement with the ideas of Blinken or Sullivan and he seems to support something more like a simultaneous move on both sides to put it back into functioning. The others are the presence in the administration of people who negotiated the original deal: Wendy Sherman as Deputy Secretary of State, and although a bit more distant, John Kerry, now to be leader on climate issues in foreign policy. I would expect them to side with Malley on this matter, and I hope Biden will ignore these people who seem to be pushing ideas that could lead to a failure to achieve possibly the most important foreign policy move Biden needs to make, or at least undoing possibly the worst foreign policy move Trump made.
Barkley Rosser
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In other news...
Janet Yellen wins Senate approval as treasury secretary
AP via @BostonGlobe - January 25
... Sen. Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, told Yellen that Biden’s plan represented a “laundry list of liberal structural economic reforms.”
As Treasury secretary, Yellen, 74, will occupy a pivotal role in shaping and directing Biden’s economic policies. She enters the Treasury job after many years serving in other top economic jobs, including as the first woman to serve as chair of the Federal Reserve from 2014 to 2018.
An economist by training who was a professor at the University of California at Berkeley, Yellen will represent the Biden administration in global financial affairs and lead a sprawling department whose responsibilities cover overseeing IRS tax collections, making policy on banking regulations and serving as the administration’s contact with Wall Street.
In her previous roles, Yellen developed an expertise in areas ranging from labor markets to international finance. Publicly, she frequently signaled concern about how economic policies affect ordinary people, especially disadvantaged communities.
She drew high marks for her stewardship at the Fed, where she employed record-low interest rates and massive bond buying, two policies begun by her predecessor Ben Bernanke, to support the economy as it struggled to emerge from a deep recession. She will now confront a new crisis brought on by a global pandemic. ...
NYT: By a vote of 84 to 15, the Senate confirmed Ms. Yellen ...
Senate Confirms Yellen...
... Ms. Yellen now faces a new and considerable challenge. As Treasury secretary, she will be responsible for helping Mr. Biden prepare the $1.9 trillion stimulus package he has proposed, steer it through Congress and — if it is approved — oversee the deployment of trillions of dollars of relief money.
The magnitude of the task became clear over the weekend, as a bipartisan group of senators met virtually with senior White House officials on Sunday and expressed doubt that such a large package was necessary.
Lawmakers in both parties raised the prospect of curtailing elements of the proposal, including the eligibility for a suggested round of $1,400 checks to individuals and ensuring that a more targeted distribution of additional aid, according to multiple people familiar with the discussion. They also asked the White House to provide data that would justify the proposed spending, which includes $350 billion in state and local aid and $130 billion to reopen schools shuttered by the pandemic.
Now, Ms. Yellen will be thrust into the middle of the talks, responsible for convincing many Republicans and some Democrats that the economy needs another multi-trillion dollar spending package. At her confirmation hearing and in written responses to lawmakers, Ms. Yellen echoed Mr. Biden’s view that Congress must “act big” to prevent the economy from long-term scarring and defended using borrowed money to finance another aid package, saying not doing so would leave workers and families worse off.
“The relief bill late last year was just a down payment to get us through the next few months,” Ms. Yellen said. “We have a long way to go before our economy fully recovers.”
Ms. Yellen also argued that “near-term fiscal support is not inconsistent with long-term fiscal sustainability,” explaining that a healthier economy would ultimately generate more revenue for the government.
The Biden administration has said that it hopes a package can win bipartisan support in Congress. However, if Democrats have signaled a willingness to turn to a budgetary mechanism known as reconciliation that would allow them to pass the legislation with a simple majority and bypass the usual 60-vote threshold needed. ...
No, President Biden isn’t having a political honeymoon
via @BostonGlobe - January 26
Donald Trump’s historic unpopularity just makes it feel that way.
Yes, it feels like President Biden is having himself a bit of a political honeymoon since taking office less than a week ago.
His approval rating is well above 50 percent. ...
Still, while it might feel like Biden is having a honeymoon period, the numbers suggest that he is fully in the “normal” range for a president, regardless of where he is in his term. It is just that Trump was so uniquely unpopular that experiencing a president above a 50 percent approval rating is perceived to be something it is not.
There have been very few polls since Biden took office last week. However, one by Morning Consult puts Biden’s approval rating at 56 percent, a full 10 points better than where Trump was at a similar point after taking office in 2017. ...
Trump is officially the most unpopular president since modern polling began in the 1930s. It will forever be his legacy ...
Trump would go on to have the most unpopular presidency in the history of polling, going back to 1938. When he left office last week, two weeks after a riot on Capitol Hill that he was impeached for causing, his approval ratings stood at 33 percent.
So, yes, when new president is sworn in and suddenly has an approval rating 23 points higher than his predecessor, it does feel like something different. ...
Had not heard Wendy was going to be Dep Sec, so that is great. She is quite good and provides some continuity in regard to Iran dealings.
Another reason to worry is that in his testimony, now-confirmed SecState Antony Blinken has defended the assassination last January of Iranian General Soleimani. I think that was a big mistake. myself. Clearly there is a range of views within Biden's foreign policy group, with some hawkish types like Victoria Nuland and Blinken and Sullivan, but with other more reasonable voices like Sherman, Kerry, and Malley.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-27/blinken-says-iran-should-take-first-step-to-restart-nuclear-deal
January 27, 2021
Blinken Says Iran Should Take First Step to Restart Nuclear Deal
By Nick Wadhams - Bloomberg
U.S. a ‘long ways’ from returning to accord, Blinken says
Secretary of state addresses Iran in his first news conference
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. will meet its commitments under the Iran nuclear deal only after leaders in Tehran do so, highlighting a dispute that’s set to become one of the Biden administration’s most politically charged foreign-policy challenges.
In his first briefing as America’s top diplomat, Blinken told reporters Wednesday that the U.S. wants to start meeting its obligations again under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, from which former President Donald Trump withdrew in 2018.
Blinken said after Iran returns to the agreement the U.S. would seek to build a “longer and stronger” accord to address what he called “deeply problematic” issues. But, he emphasized, Iran needs to act first and any U.S. return may take a while. He didn’t set a timetable on the reduction of U.S. sanctions or a resumption of Iranian oil sales.
“We are a long ways from that point. Iran is out of compliance on a number of fronts, and it will take some time, should it make a decision to do so, to come back into compliance, and time for us to assess whether it’s meeting its obligations,” Blinken told reporters. “So we’re not there yet, to say the least.” ...
"Another reason to worry is that in his testimony, now-confirmed SecState Antony Blinken has defended the assassination last January of Iranian General Soleimani...."
Horrible.
"Is Biden Going To Blow Reentering The Iran Nuclear Deal?"
Tragically, blown already.
Not necessarily. Again, Blinken does not agree with the special negotiator, Malley, and my guess is that Biden does not either. But we shall have to see.
IN today's WaPo, Josh Rogin reports on open warfare among Biden's foreign policy team, this time over policy towards Syria, but this related to the debate over policy towards Iran. This is up in the air, but I hope Biden will tilt to the more dovish side, at least with respect to the Iran nuclear deal, which he has long and loudly declared he wishes to get back into with it being functional. Going with Blinken et all will not achieve that.
The point is whether Iran is going to be told to abide by new conditions before the US will enter the agreement again. Iran will never accept coercive terms, however. Iran has learned well, never ever accept more coercive terms from the US. Also, Israel obviously wishes no renewal of the agreement.
I see no way back, sadly.
A.,
I do not think Israel's opposition is going to affect this, although they are certainly supporting the harder line faction in the Biden admin. But they were against having the agreement in the first place. So I do not think that is a big deal, although it is part of the reason so many GOPs oopose it.
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