Imagine that, on the eve of a national election, a candidate is far ahead in all the polls and seems to be cruising to victory. Then the results come in, and the unthinkable has happened: the candidate has lost handily. Your first instinct would be to take a look at how the election was carried out and the votes tabulated to see if everything was kosher.
But that’s not what happened in November 2020. In case you forgot, here’s 538's final forecast from November 3. The actual results were a big setback for the Democrats on all fronts, House, Senate and President.
That’s what’s so bizarre about the claims of Trump, Hawley, Cruz et al. They did way better than the polls said they would. It’s as if the Democratic bust of 11-3-20 disappeared down a memory hole.
6 comments:
"538's final forecast"
Latest news - NOV. 3, 2020
Our 2020 forecasts — presidential, Senate, House — are all now officially frozen, meaning we won’t be ingesting any new polls or updating the odds in any race. Instead, follow along on our Election Day Live blog as we track results in real-time. At the end of a loooooong campaign, here’s where we stand: Joe Biden is favored to beat President Trump (though Trump still has a 1-in-10 chance); Democrats have a 3-in-4 shot at taking back the Senate; and the House will most likely remain under Democratic control (Democrats might even expand their majority by a few seats). The big picture is clear: The overall electoral environment favors Democrats, which is one reason they have decent odds of controlling the presidency, Senate and House (a 72 percent chance, according to our forecast). Of course, there’s always the chance of a polling error, which tends to be correlated from state to state when it happens. ...
According to our final presidential forecast, Pennsylvania is the most likely tipping-point state, and a lot of Biden’s chances in the Electoral College hinge on what happens in the Keystone State. He leads Trump there by about 5 points in our polling average, but it’s not as large a margin as Biden might like. Last week, we gamed out what would happen if Biden lost Pennsylvania but won other Midwestern states like Wisconsin. ...it’s pretty unlikely, though, that either of them will hit the 270 electoral votes needed to win by the end of the night. That doesn’t necessarily mean, though, that we won’t have a pretty good idea of who won. It’s all going to come down to how close some of the key battleground races are and whether a representative share of the vote can be reported, which won’t always be possible given the challenges of the pandemic. ...
(Where 538 was way off: "the House will most likely remain under
Democratic control (Democrats might even expand their majority
by a few seats)"
They held the House, but their margin was reduced.
Pelosi reelected speaker despite narrow majority
A final irony?
If only the GOP had done better on Nov 3,
maybe we would not be at the precipice
we seemed to have reached, with the GOP
seemingly ready to secede from the Union.
Of course, see also Marx's famous 'History... Tragedy... Farce' comment.
The_Eighteenth_Brumaire_of_Louis_Bonaparte
Before Capitol Riot, Republican Lawmakers Fanned the Flames
NY Times - January 11
WASHINGTON — Standing before a crowd of thousands of MAGA-clad protesters on the National Mall on Wednesday, Representative Mo Brooks roared out a message that he said members of Congress who dared to accept President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s victory needed to hear.
“Today is the day American patriots start taking down names and kicking ass,” said Mr. Brooks, Republican of Alabama. “Are you willing to do what it takes to fight for America? Louder! Will you fight for America?” ...
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'white men without college educations' favor Trump by 42%.
Does this mean they favor Biden by 58%?
If so, not too shabby.
Why Rage Over the 2020 Election Could Last Well Past Trump
NY Times - January 18
... for a certain slice of the 74 million Americans who voted for President Trump, the events of the past two weeks — the five deaths, including of a Capitol Police officer, the arrests that have followed, and the removal of Mr. Trump and right-wing extremists from tech platforms — have not had a chastening effect.
On the contrary, interviews in recent days show that their anger and paranoia have only deepened, suggesting that even after Mr. Trump leaves the White House, an embrace of conspiracy theories and rage about the 2020 election will live on, not just among extremist groups but among many Americans. ...
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Exit polls show both familiar and new voting blocs sealed Biden’s win
via @BrookingsInst - November 12
In (2020), there was a modest decline in Republican support in a key Trump base: white men without college educations. This group showed a reduced Republican advantage from 48% to a still sizeable 42% between 2016 and 2020.
Yet among white voters with college educations, there were notable shifts in Biden’s direction. White male college graduates reduced their support for Trump from 14% to 3%. At the same time, white female college graduates boosted their Democratic support from 7% to 9% nationally. Moreover, in key battleground states, white female college graduates generally registered greater support for Biden in 2020 than they did for Hillary Clinton in 2016. ...
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