Friday, March 5, 2021

Is There No Hope for "Muslim Social Democracy"?

 Probably not I am afraid.  Indeed, this label is a recently cooked up one, to replace an earlier one that used "Islamist" instead of "Muslim." The group claiming this apparently failing and declining label is the Ennadha Party of Tuinisia, founded in 1981 and still led by al-Ghannouchi, currently  Tunis's Speaker of the House, although he and his party, which has led Tunisia for the last decade, may be about to be removed from power.

This is the 10th anniversary of the "Arab Spring," which began a decade ago in Tunisia, widely viewed as the one national "success story" of that pitiable affair. All the others: Egypt, Yemen, Libya, and others, ended up with dictators or endless war.  Tunisia has a democracy! An informal economy merchant was hit up for bribes in the old regime of Ben Ali. He set himself on fire, setting off the whole Arab Spring.

In Tunisia it did lead to the fall of Ben Ali, with indeed a democratic government coming in, with the Ennhadha dominating as it has until now.  They indeed espoused a position of "Islamist social democracy," and quietly ruled with near zero attention from most of the world for the last decade as Tunisia has just quietly stagnated over the last decade, no major uprisings, no terror attacks, just a lot of ongoing boredom. Problem solved. Move on.

As it is, I cannot explain why social democracy has not been achieved, Islamist, Muslim, or whatever, in Tunisia.  I think the main reason is that the economy has stagnated.  Tunisia has no oil or major industries.  It has some tourism, although not big time, and some agriculture that gets exported to the EU, but it does not have a sufficiently highly educated populace to have any growing high tech industries.  It has just been sort of plodding along, and with the current crisis, the failure of this regime to substantially improve the quality of life is coming home to pay. 

It is highly likely that some sort of authoritarian regime will come to power in the near future, although probably not internationally troublesome enough to get much attention.  But if this happens, it will be the end of the idea that the Arab Spring would bring about democratic regimes in the Arab world, which, with the possible now failed state example of Lebanona, does not exist seriously beyond Tunisia, the "success story of the Arab Spring," now unfortunately apparently failing on this decade anniversary of the uprising.

Barkley Rosser

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

The essay is excellent, but might include a line on the subversive influence all through North Africa of France and the American, British, French destruction of Libya as presenting a severe economic problem for Tunisia. Before Libya, Tunisia had long been the fastest growing country in North Africa in per capita terms.

Anonymous said...

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=BGxM

August 4, 2014

Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia
and France, 1971-2018

(Percent change)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=BGxU

August 4, 2014

Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia
and France, 1971-2018

(Indexed to 1971)

Anonymous said...

Tunisia was importantly dependent on the economic well-being of Libya. Overcoming the ruin of the Libyan economy would have been a problem for Tunisia no matter how governed. The ever-colonial-minded French of course did not help.

[ Forgive the criticism of the French... ]

Anonymous said...

Forgive me, please, but the title of this excellent essay seems needlessly harsh:

Is There No Hope for "------ Social Democracy"?

Please forgive this gently meant comment.

Anonymous said...

Tunisia simply did not recover in growth path after 2011. The recession was severe and Libya was no longer an economic partner. Algeria was troubled and North Africa was weakened. France was not going to spur Tunisian growth.

rosserjb@jmu.edu said...

The poor situation in Libya has certainly hurt the Tunisian economy, good point, Anonymous. I have not posted for some time on Libya, but back when the uprising against Qaddafi began I warned that a likely outcome would be the de facto partition between its eastern and western parts, which historically have tended not to be in the same political entity, or if ruled by a single ultimate ruler in Rome or Constantinople to be treated as being (or being in) different provinces. This de facto partition indeed did come about and remains, along with a simmering civil war, all of this not helping the Tunisian situation.

Not Trampis said...

It seems to me Barkes that islamic social democracy would be similar to India's disasterous attempt at it.

Anonymous said...

Forgive me, but the expression "------- social democracy" is unfortunate to me. I do not know what a "Lutheran" social democracy would entail and would never refer to, say, Germany as being such a state.

India is of course meant to be a "social democracy," even for rural Indians who are currently protesting the way in which India is now being governed.

Anonymous said...

I just realized that former President Sarkozy who was instrumental in attacking Libya, was just convicted of crimes committed while President of France. Possibly this realization is irrelevant here, but I wonder now what could be relied on during this French presidency.