Drop in Housing Values and Consumption Demand

CNNMoney reports:

American homeowners will collectively lose more than $2 trillion in home value by the end of 2008, according to a report released Monday. The real estate Web site Zillow.com calculated that home values have dropped 8.4% year-over-year during the first three quarters of 2008, compared with the same period of 2007.

Life-cycle models of consumption tend to suggest that a drop in wealth would lead to a decline in consumption. If one assumed that each $1 decline in wealth leads to a $0.05 decline in consumption, this $2 trillion estimated decline would mean a $100 billion decline in consumption. Real consumption (all figures 2000$) declined by almost $80 billion on an annualized basis last quarter. Since 2006QIV, consumption has increased by only $142.2 billion per year even though real GDP increased by $355.9 billion. Had the ratio of consumption to GDP remained at its 2006QIV level of 71.5 percent, we would be seeing an additional $112 billion in consumption demand.

Maybe a rise in savings might be seen as a good thing if investment demand were also rising, but currently the fall in investment demand is so large that it is largely wiping out the progress in export demand. As private consumption declines, we will need a boost from government purchases if we are to avoid what Keynes called the paradox of thrift.

Speaking of the paradox of thrift – check out this cartoon with hat tip to an Angrybear.

Stupidity, Cowardice, Stimulus

by the Sandwichman

In his "Tour of German Inflation" (in One-Way Street), Walter Benjamin singled out the expression, "things can't go on like this" as exemplifying the "stupidity and cowardice constituting the mode of life of the German bourgeois". Embedded in the expression is the unfounded conviction that, somehow or other, unpleasant conditions cannot be enduring ones. However, as Benjamin noted, "to decline is no less stable, no more surprising, than to rise."

Yesterday, in the New York Times, nine economists weighed in on what, in their opinion, would constitute the ideal stimulus package, given the constraints of a $500 billion total to be either spent, returned in tax cuts or some combination of the two. Of course, the underlying premise of any stimulus package is the growthodox conviction that "things can't go on like this" -- that the accustomed "economic growth" of the recent past should be the norm and interruption of that growth can only be an anomaly.

Get over it, suckers. Bernie Madoff had the economic stimulus package meme down pat. Madoff's estimated $50 billion Ponzi scheme was already 10% of the proposed $500 billion package. O.K., then, in twenty five words or less, what's the difference between a stimulus package and a Ponzi scheme (bearing in mind the operative concept, "German Inflation"; see also "Uh Oh...")?

GM, Chrysler and the Recovery Program

Time to shift frames on the auto bailout. The question lurking behind current thinking is “How can these companies make money again producing and selling cars?” This explains the obsession with labor costs, future product lines and the like. The short answer is probably, they can’t. Even if they do everything right from now on, a steadily shrinking car market is the logical implication of serious, grown-up carbon regulation. (I will post on that topic soon, focusing on the news from Europe.)

For an alternative, step back into history and consider the story of Lucas Aerospace, brilliantly chronicled by Hilary Wainwright and David Elliott in The Lucas Plan: A New Trade Unionism in the Making? Lucas made military aircraft and was facing devastating (but socially desirable) cuts in demand for their wares. Seeing the handwriting on the wall, production workers teamed up with engineers and conducted a detailed inventory of their firm’s capacity: what skills and resources they comprised. Then they canvassed a range of nonprofit organizations to find out what kinds of products served important social needs but were not being provided in the market, like improved prosthetic devices and equipment for upgrading railroad crossings. Putting two and two together, they proposed production plans to give the company a new lease on life. The final piece, however, never materialized. The social agencies needed the government to allocate funds for these new products, but the government didn’t come through, and Lucas eventually folded.

You can probably see where I’m going with this. Obama is proposing to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on public projects to restart the economy, and forward-thinking observers, like Jamie Galbraith, are pointing out that we need long-term restructuring, not just a quick burst of stimulus. Who will build the transit systems, smart two-way electrical grids and other components of a clean, green America? If the auto companies are liquidated, we lose a ton of capacity it will be difficult and expensive to replace.

Message to the Obama team: begin formulating the reconstruction plan as a set of receivables and be ready to energize producers from the outset, perhaps with contracts having a loan component.

Message to the UAW and progressive-minded professionals in the auto industry: don’t wait for your top management to shuck the business plans they’ve staked their careers on. Begin a Lucas-like process of discovering what you can produce, and convey this directly to the federal recovery folks.

Senate Republicans First Shot Against Organized Labor

Countdown discussed a memo entitled "Action Alert - Auto Bailout," which was sent to Senate Republicans Wednesday morning and states:

This is the democrats first opportunity to payoff organized labor after the election. This is a precursor to card check and other items. Republicans should stand firm and take their first shot against organized labor, instead of taking their first blow from it. This rush to judgment is the same thing that happened with the TARP. Members did not have an opportunity to read or digest the legislation and therefore could not understand the consequences of it. We should not rush to pass this because Detroit says the sky is falling.

But didn’t many of the same Senate Republicans who filibustered the auto bailout bill vote for TARP? Jonathan Chait notes a little irony in how these Senate Republicans played their hand:

if the White House follows through on its suggestion that it might use TARP funds to stave off bankruptcy, the GOP maneuver will have been a total disaster. Remember, the Republicans have leverage because they still have 49 Senate seats and the auto companies need their loans right away.And, indeed, Republicans have used their leverage to force wage concessions and not force the auto companies to start producing low-emissions vehicles. But if they've overplayed their hand to the point where the White House floats a loan until January, then the GOP's leverage will nearly collapse. When the new Senate and White House convene, the Democrats will cut a much better deal for themselves, with fewer or no wage cuts for workers and tougher environmental standards.

In other words, their ploy may have failed and now we know their true motivations was to let millions of workers lose their jobs for raw partisan purposes.

Uh Oh, Is the Dollar About to Collapse?

So, recently here Peter Dorman and I were commiserating over having largely called most of the current crises, only to fail to have seen the surge of the dollar as people "flew to quality," leading ultimately to the absurdity of negative yields on 90 day Treasury bills just a few days ago. A number of other commentators also have been beating themselves over the head for failing to foresee the dollar's strength (Brad DeLong and Arnold Kling, among others), although none of them were as prescient on other matters as Peter and me (ooh, ooh, such self-puffery).

However, in the last two days the euro to dollar rate has gone from about 1.27 to 1.33. Does this mean that the other shoe is about to drop, and that the world is about to become fed up with the dollar and run for their lives in the face of our ongoing massive current account deficit and historically unprecedented net foreign indebtedness, not to mention so much other baloney?

Senate’s Failure to Pass Automobile Bailout

As David Herszenhorn report this sad news, I have a few questions:

The Senate on Thursday night abandoned efforts to fashion a government rescue of the American automobile industry, as Senate Republicans refused to support a bill endorsed by the White House and Congressional Democrats ... So far, the Federal Reserve also has shown no willingness to step in to aid the auto industry, but Democrats have argued that it has the authority to do so and some said the central bank may have no choice but to prevent the automakers from bankruptcy proceedings that could have ruinous ripple effects … the Senate failed to win the 60 votes need to bring up the auto rescue plan for consideration. The Senate voted 52 to 35 with 10 Republicans joining 40 Democrats and 2 independents in favor ... The automakers would also have been required to cut wages and benefits to match the average hourly wage and benefits of Nissan, Toyota and Honda employees in the United States.

First of all – if only 40 Democrats voted for cloture, where were the other guys? Secondly, what is it that the Federal Reserve might do to keep the Big 3 alive until we have a new Congress and White House? Finally, when Mitch McConnell says he wants the UAW to eliminate their gap between their hourly compensation and that of those US employees of the Japanese car manufacturers, does he still (mistakenly) think that their current compensation is over $70 an hour?

Hilzoy suggests that the behavior of McConnell and his minions is not responsible. It is certainly true that some of their arguments against this bailout proposal have been dishonest.

Preemptive Coverup on Wall Street

The Wall Street Journal reported today that securities firms have a claw back clause that allows them to call back bonuses from people whose screw ups turn out to cost the company big bucks. ok. But Morgan Stanley's contract includes "reputational harm": which sounds like it would include people who tell tales out of school:

Grounds for invoking the provision include "the need for a restatement of results, a significant financial loss or other reputational harm to the Firm or one of its businesses," the memo said. Morgan Stanley's rule applies to 2008 bonuses and cash payouts vesting over a three-year period. The roughly 7,000 employees covered by the policy range from top brass to midlevel workers.

Patterson, Scott. 2008. "Securities Firms Claw Back at Failed Bets." Wall Street Journal (10 December).

Walking Backward into the Future...

by the Sandwichman

For a while in the 1990s I used a quote from a book review by Canada's new Liberal leader, Michael Ignatieff, in my signature file: "Only in mediocre art does life unfold as fate." As fate would have it, 12 years later I can now Google search the phrase and come up with 70 or so of my own musings from a decade ago. I was only able to find the originl source of the quote, "The Illusion of Fate" in the February 13, 1995 New Republic, by truncating the phrase.

Side-shadowing speaks to the contingent and haphazard way our lives unfold. This contingency leaves us with a haunted sense of lives that we might have lived, choices that we might have had good reason to make. Only in mediocre art does life unfold as fate. Yet all of us yearn, in Bernstein's words, for the possibility that our biography "will be revealed as destiny," and that "the life we ended up having was, from the outset, actually the only possible one." This is what makes us suckers for bad books.

Earlier in his review -- commenting on the demise of the "grand narratives" of Marx, Freud, Weber, Durkheim, etc. -- Ignatieff observed that the passing of those commanding theories "leaves us in a curious state of intellectual denudation. For theories of the past are always maps of a possible future. Now we are walking backward into the future, and without maps."

I wonder if Ignatieff will now, as Liberal leader, advocate a "contingent and haphazard" party program.

On Krugman's Nobel Prize Speech

One can access Paul Krugman's Nobel Prize speech at http://nobelprize.org/mediaplayer/index.php?=1072. In it he gives a pretty clear description of the new trade and new economic geography approaches, with some interesting discussion of how this fits with the broad history of urbanization in the US. Unsurprisingly he once again fails to cite important predecessors of these ideas, with him basically deserving credit for linking them and doing a good job of publicizing them with his clear models. The two names not mentioned that most deserved to be were Avinash Dixit, co-developer of the Dixit-Stiglitz model that is the key to "Krugman's" theories, with Krugman briefly noting that the theory ultimately came from industrial organization. The other was the first person to apply the Dixit-Stiglitz model to economic geography, who would be Masahisa Fujita, 1988, "A monopolistic competition model of spatial agglomeration: a differentiated product approach," Regional Science and Urban Economics, vol. 18, pp. 87-13124. Krugman is a better writer than the Japanese Fujita, but Fujita has done far more innovative work in this area than Krugman ever did, which I think Krugman knows as he later coauthored with Fujita, even as he did not cite him in his much cited 1991 paper in the JPE that used the same approach as Fujita. Having Dixit and Fujita share the prize with Krugman would have been appropriate and also given the prize to someone from East Asia for the first time. I hope that Krugman finally gets it right for the written version of his speecch and cites the even longer list than this of people who preceded him and deserve recognition for it by him. The model here is Stiglitz, whose reference list for his Nobel Prize speech paper goes on for 13 pages in the AER.

As for his remarks on the auto industry in Detroit, in the end his only explanation is that wages and medical care costs are too high in Detroit compared to the Deep South (no mention of legacy pension costs). Supposedly he was going to explain the problems of the auto industry in Detroit by his theory, which supposedly explains "agglomeration," but he made no reference to his theory other than a vague statement that economies of scale are declining, which supposedly has been going on since about 1965, according to him. However, how or why they have been declining was not explained by him. This rather puts to shame his bragging that he has explained "agglomeration," in contrast to all those pathetic people prior to him, whom he assiduously avoids citing, except for a couple of ancient scribes who used no math, so he can present himself as the great savior who uses math to lead us all to enlightenment regarding these important matters. If Detroit arose because of the factors laid out in his model, he does not say how this happened nor how they stopped holding so that Detroit is now doomed. Blaming high wage and medical care costs amounts to nothing more than de facto union bashing with no link to any version of his model discernible at all. A pretty pathetic performance all in all, especially after he went after Brian Arthur some years ago in Slate for supposedly overselling his role in describing increasing returns, which took Kenneth Arrow to come in and defend Arthur, noting that he, unlike Krugman, actually cited his appropriate predecessors.

Ignore the Guantánamo Confessions

So five accused planners of Sept. 11 want to confess, avoid a trial, and enter paradise via lethal injection. Their wishes should have no bearing on their cases. First, there is an alarming incidence of false confession, to the extent that, if guilt cannot be established by evidence, confession alone should not be decisive. One of the causes of false confession according to the Innocence Project, by the way, is torture and the threat of torture—not that this would have any relevance to Guantánamo inmates, of course. The second thing to consider is the larger significance of the legal case against these men. The damage done to America’s global reputation and to popular views about justice at home cannot be erased, but the first step toward recovery is a public embrace of the rule of law. If the evidence against them is sufficient, put them on trial. Demonstrate a commitment to truth and fairness of judgment. If they did in fact plot murder against innocent thousands, show the cruel calculation of their planning. And if the evidence isn’t there, the confessions don’t take its place.

Investing in Our Cities

Keynesian macroeconomics suggests that we need some sort of quick but temporary spike in government purchases to get us back to full employment. We would also want to spend these funds on high value projects. I used to drive on Los Angeles roads, which I know need a lot of work. It seems my former mayor is onto something:

Mayors across the country are calling on President-elect Barack Obama to invest in their cities when he takes office in order to get the economy back on track. A group of mayors met in Washington on Monday to lobby for federal funding for what they say are "ready-to-go" infrastructure projects. They want funding to go directly to their cities instead of being distributed on a state level. "Over the last eight years, there's been ... an absence of investment in cities, whether it's the infrastructure, public transportation, bridges, highways, schools, hospitals," Los Angeles, California, Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa said at a news conference on Capitol Hill. "We are here not for a bailout, but to present a recovery plan."

Now that I live in New York, I don’t drive as I ride our subways and my current mayor has chimed in:

The news conference coincided with the Conference of Mayors' release of a list of 11,391 "ready-to-go" infrastructure projects that would cost $73.1 billion. The report surveyed 427 cities across the country and includes roads, bridges, schools, city halls and other public works projects. The report says that those projects would create 847,641 jobs. "All of these projects and more involving our bridges and schools are ready to go. They've gone through the design and approval process. They've gone through all of the political requirements. They just need money," said Michael Bloomberg, mayor of New York City. The president-elect said over the weekend that he supports an economic stimulus plan that includes an overhaul of the nation's roads and bridges. According to a report by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation officials, roads and bridges in the United States need critical repairs that would total $64 billion, and construction could begin within six months if the federal government makes the funds available. That report found 5,148 road and bridge projects that are considered "ready to go." The mayors say that investing in their metropolitan economies is the most direct path to create jobs and jump-start the economy.

One of my big concerns is the proposed cutbacks in subway service and the proposed downsizing of the MTA workforce. It’s not that there is too little demand for subway services but rather a projected MTA deficit that has generated these fiscal contraction proposals. Maybe Mayor Bloomberg can ask the Federal government for some direct revenue sharing so the MTA does not have to initiate these cutbacks. With a little imagination, there are plenty of areas where high value investments in our cities can be found, which would also have beneficial Keynesian effects. The story continues with a debate as to whether having the governors oversea this would lead to a better allocation of resources versus just the slowing the process down.

Of course, I’d rather spend our Federal funds on local infrastructure than more war machines.

Update: I have included a graph showing government spending (Federal, state, and local) on transportation (TRAN) and education (EDUC) as shares of GDP from 1959 to 2007. The 1.8% share for transportation is certainly less than what between 1959 and 1976 with this share declining over time. The education share peaked in 1975 at 5.66% and was 5.4% last year. Whether or not we spend too much or too little on schools, however, cannot be ascertained by anecdotal evidence on how recently a school has been refurbished as one follows Bill Kristol around.

Kristol’s Fiscal Stimulus Proposal – Make War Not Schools

Bill Kristol finally admits it – modern day Republican leaders have not been championing smaller government:

Five Republicans have won the presidency since 1932: Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and the two George Bushes. Only Reagan was even close to being a small-government conservative. And he campaigned in 1980 more as a tax-cutter and national-defense-builder-upper, and less as a small-government enthusiast in the mold of the man he had supported — and who had lost — in 1964, Barry Goldwater. And Reagan’s record as governor and president wasn’t a particularly government-slashing one. Even the G.O.P.’s 1994 Contract With America made only vague promises to eliminate the budget deficit, and proposed no specific cuts in government programs.

Tiny correction – any fall in nondefense Federal spending under Reagan was offset by the increase in defense spending with the ratio of Federal spending to GDP being unchanged during the Reagan years as President. So Reagan did not cut taxes – he deferred taxes. But let’s fast forward to what Kristol would do with Federal spending today:

Similarly, if you’re against big government, you’ll oppose a huge public works stimulus package. If you think some government action is inevitable, you might instead point out that the most unambiguous public good is national defense ... Obama wants to spend much of the stimulus on transportation infrastructure and schools. Fine, but lots of schools and airports seem to me to have been refurbished more recently and more generously than military bases I’ve visited.

Kristol in other words opposes government investment in schools and roads but supports spending on items that would at best not be used and at worst kill people and destroy infrastructure – obviously inconsistent with long-term growth or credible supply-side economics!

Thoughts from the Great Depression

As mass production has to be accompanied by mass consumption, mass consumption, in turn, implies a distribution of wealth -- not of existing wealth, but of wealth as it is currently produced -- to provide men with buying power equal to the amount of goods and services offered by the nation's economic machinery. Instead of achieving that kind of distribution, a giant suction pump had by 1929-30 drawn into a few hands an increasing portion of currently produced wealth. This served them as capital accumulations. But by taking purchasing power out of the hands of mass consumers, the savers denied to themselves the kind of effective demand for their products that would justify a reinvestment of their capital accumulations in new plants. In consequence, as in a poker game where the chips were concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, the other fellows could stay in the game only by borrowing. When their credit ran out, the game stopped.

(Eccles, Marriner S. 1951. Beckoning Frontiers: Public and Personal Recollections (New York: Alfred A. Knopf): p. 76



Eccles ran the Fed under Roosevelt

Some people who contributed to creating the preconditions for the Depression developed understood that their greatest contribution would be to get out of the way.

In December 1932, Calvin Coolidge spent an afternoon in idle talk with an old friend. "We are in a new era to which I do not belong," he finally said, "and it would not be possible for me to adjust myself to it. These new ideas call from new men to develop them. That task is not for me who believe in the only kind of government that I know anything about". In another three weeks, Coolidge was dead.

Schlesinger, Arthur. 1957. The Crisis of the Old Order, 1919-33 (Boston: Houghton, Mifflin): p. 457, internally citing Stoddard, Henry Luther. 1938. It Costs to be President (New York: Harper & Brothers): p. 146.

"Lunatic Scheme" a Qualified Success

by the Sandwichman

In the wake of Friday's dismal employment report, New York Times editor Adam Cohen is channeling the Sandwichman:

One way to reduce the need for layoffs would be to cut back on hours, spreading the available work among more employees. This was an idea that had considerable currency in the Great Depression. In 1933, the Senate passed a “30 Hour Bill” that would have barred from interstate commerce goods made by workers employed more than 30 hours a week. Its sponsor, Senator Hugo Black of Alabama, said the bill would create six million new jobs. It made no sense, he insisted, for some employees to work 70 hours a week "while others are driven into poverty and misery from unemployment."

But didn't they try this in France and wasn't it a fiasco -- a "lunatic scheme" that brought "seven years of rising unemployment, economic stagnation, and general malaise"?



Well, no. The 35-hour policy was a "qualified success." But you wouldn't have known that from reading the English speaking press. Sandwichpal Anders Hayden tells the story:

France’s 35-hour workweek is one of the boldest progressive reforms in recent years. Drawing on existing survey and economic data, supplemented by interviews with French informants, this article examines the 35-hour week’s evolution and impacts. Although commonly dismissed as economically uncompetitive, the policy package succeeded in avoiding significant labor-cost increases for business. Most 35-hour employees cite quality-of-life improvements despite the fact that wage moderation, greater variability in schedules, and intensification of work negatively impacted some—mostly lower-paid and less-skilled—workers. Taking into account employment gains, the initiative can be considered a qualified success in meeting its main aims.

Sandwich man!

The New York Times
November 21, 2008

Bebeto Matthews/Associated Press
Caption: "Paul Nawrocki of Beacon, N.Y., wore a signboard this week in Midtown Manhattan advertising his need for a full-time job with benefits. He said he has been looking for work for nine months."

See also: Business Week.