Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Showdown in Wisconsin Too Close to Call
Hillary's last chance in Wisconsin has her slightly ahead in last poll last night. Too close to call. Here is my take. Northwestern part goes to Obama, old Progressive territory like Minnesota. Northeast, including Green Bay (she was in its suburb, De Pere last night) goes to Hillary, old Joe McCarthy stomping ground. Rural parts of the southern part of the state tossup. Madison and Dane County (around Mad City) for Obama. Racine slightly to Obama because of Af-Am pop, Kenosha slightly to Hillary. Milwaukee split, northside to Obama, southside to Hillary. Which leaves what I have said all along is the key: Waukesha County, third largest in the state, suburbs to the west of Milwaukee, inner part more working class with income rising as one goes west and getting more suburban. Tossup, but as it goes, so will the state and Hillary's chances.
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3 comments:
I agree with your assessment of the regional voting blocks. I think the polls for this state are pretty well useless at the moment. Most polls show Obama up. A few recent ones show hillary within the margins. American Research Group had one this weekend showing Hillary up 6, but one yesterday that had Obama up 10. It is all about the get out the vote efforts at this point. With recent polls showing an extremely close race in Texas and the Obama-personality factor (the theory that the more time he spends in a state the more they like him and him having 2 weeks before texas and ohio),I agree that Wisconsin may be hillary's last chance to make a nomination realistic.
-Brian Derr
globalpoliticonomics
betting line isn't even close to a toss-up, nor would I take anything less than 3:1 to bet against the neighboring Senator in an Open Primary.
Last sentence is accurate; will ObamaNation finally offer a reasonable chance that FL and MI voters don't skip the general election?
In the end, not even close, 58 to 41%. Hillary took ten out of 72 counties, all of them rural, most in the far north.
Of the cities, Obama did better than I expected in Green Bay, although Brown County that contains it was closer than the state split, with him leading by 13%. Dane County with Madison, was way for Obama as I predicted: 68% to 31%, more than 2 to 1. Milwaukee was a surprise to me, coming on strong for Obama, 64% to 35%, clearly destroying any chance Hillary might have had.
To Ken Houghton: However, I was right about the next door state effect. Aside from the rural counties in far north, some of Hillary's best areas were those closest to the Illinois border, where, as I warned, there is a lot of anti-Illinois sentiment in Wisconsin. The major city closest to the border is Kenosha in the southeast corner of the state, which I had leaning Hillary. Obama took it by only 51% to 48%. Racine, just north of it, which I had leaning Obama, he won, but only by 55% to 44%, and what I identified as the crucial Waukesha County, he won by about the same margin as in Racine. This county will be battleground in the general election between McCain and Obama (and Huckabee took some rural counties in the middle to western parts of the state).
Barkley
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