by the Sandwichman
The Sandwichman is not 'optimistic' about a 'V' shaped recession. Ultimately the economy is not a numbers game. The numbers are epiphenomena. That is to say secondary symptoms, mere concomitants. Divining numbers from numbers is a fool's pass time.
The policy responses to the recession so far have not addressed the fundamental imbalance in the economy, which is the concentration of income shares and market power at the top of the pyramid.
Debt can be useful for pump-priming to the extent that it makes available in the present purchasing power that is expected to materialize in the future. But to the extent that a more prosperous future fails to materialize, accumulated debt becomes a drag on present consumption. The humus of broken promises leaves a barren soil for sowing new ones.
The homeostatic key to re-balancing incomes, consumption and labor supply is, in a word, leisure. Leisure is distinct from idleness in that it is valued free time. Unemployment is not leisure because no unemployed person would pay to stay unemployed longer.
The distinctive property of leisure as leisure that distinguishes it from ('other') commodities is that you cannot hoard it or accumulate it beyond the 24-hour per day per person allotment. This also explains why capital is jealous of leisure.
The depreciation of leisure that underpins the current economic crisis has been of long duration. We are looking at about a half a century of log jam. Even if there is one last band-aid in the first aid kit, it won't measure up to the bleeding.
'V' my ass.