Last night my wife, Marina, and I watched live the debate at Wembly Arena in over Brexit, BBC, with three on each main side. The betting markets have never said Leave will win, with their lowest forecast being 58% Remain. Now, after the assassination of pro-Remain Labour MP by a neo-Nazi.the prediction markets have gone to 75% for Remain, and on Monday, the markets and the pound surged. But the 'shpolls remain near tied, with the main one on this morning's FT with Leave still ahead by one point. Looks pretty close, like a dead heat.
So what may be pushing in the Leave direction after the assassination of Jo Cox, is the debate last night, with 6000 in the live audience, and without doubt most of UK watching. Behavioral economics comes in here, particularly Danny Kahneman's peak and end point theory. What matters for memory is the peak point and the endpoint. In this, I am not sure about the peak point, but somehow the main pro leave leader, Boris Johnson, got to speak last, and he really jammed it up, declaring that tomorrow will be an "Independance Day!" for the UK. That drew the only standing ovation of the evening.