My friends,
If you post endless copies of off-topic news articles and list of corona virus statistics to my substantive posts, I will simply hide all comments on that post. DO NOT DO IT! Effectively, all you do with those "comments" is to prevent conversation. If that is your intention, you are trolls. One way or the other it is SPAM. You are welcome to post whatever you want on an "Open Thread."
64 comments:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/climate/trump-election-climate-noaa.html
October 27, 2020
As Election Nears, Trump Makes a Final Push Against Climate Science
The administration is imposing new limits on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that would undercut action against global warming.
By Christopher Flavelle and Lisa Friedman
WASHINGTON — The Trump administration has recently removed the chief scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the nation’s premier scientific agency, installed new political staff who have questioned accepted facts about climate change and imposed stricter controls on communications at the agency.
The moves threaten to stifle a major source of objective United States government information about climate change that underpins federal rules on greenhouse gas emissions and offer an indication of the direction the agency will take if President Trump wins re-election.
An early sign of the shift came last month, when Erik Noble, a former White House policy adviser who had just been appointed NOAA’s chief of staff, removed Craig McLean, the agency’s acting chief scientist.
Mr. McLean had sent some of the new political appointees a message that asked them to acknowledge the agency’s scientific integrity policy, which prohibits manipulating research or presenting ideologically driven findings.
The request prompted a sharp response from Dr. Noble. “Respectfully, by what authority are you sending this to me?” he wrote, according to a person who received a copy of the exchange after it was circulated within NOAA.
Mr. McLean answered that his role as acting chief scientist made him responsible for ensuring that the agency’s rules on scientific integrity were followed.
The following morning, Dr. Noble responded. “You no longer serve as the acting chief scientist for NOAA,” he informed Mr. McLean, adding that a new chief scientist had already been appointed. “Thank you for your service.”
It was not the first time NOAA had drawn the administration’s attention. Last year, the agency’s weather forecasters came under pressure for contradicting Mr. Trump’s false statements about the path of Hurricane Dorian....
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/28/your-money/social-security-biden-trump.html
October 28, 2020
It’s Time to Talk About Social Security. No More Waiting.
Even before the pandemic, Social Security’s finances were under growing pressure. The next president and Congress will play a crucial role in what happens next.
By Tara Siegel Bernard
Social Security has always seemed like a future problem, with experts long predicting a benefits squeeze in the decades ahead. But the coronavirus has put tens of millions of Americans out of work, and economists are predicting that the recovery will take years.
That means the future is now.
If nothing is done to shore up the program, all benefit checks would need to be cut by roughly one-quarter in perhaps 11 years — or, if the recession is protracted and severe, maybe even sooner.
“We thought we had more than a decade, and now it could be less than a decade,” said Kathleen Romig, a senior policy analyst at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. “That makes a big difference both psychologically and in policy terms.”
The pandemic has hastened the cash crunch’s arrival by wiping out jobs and the payroll taxes — Social Security’s dedicated source of revenue — that they provide. Fewer people are paying into the retirement trust fund, and the longer they’re out of work, the deeper the problem becomes. (Even more pressing may be a fix for Social Security’s disability program, which has a trust fund of its own. A report issued by the Congressional Budget Office last month projects that fund could be exhausted in 2026.)
Despite such grim projections, Social Security hasn’t received a lot of attention during the presidential campaign, given everything else going on. But whoever wins next week will have little choice but to stretch out his hand toward the third rail of politics. And both candidates have offered ideas that could significantly shift how Social Security works.
President Trump hasn’t released a proposal, but he has said he wants to eliminate the payroll tax — Social Security’s lifeblood — as an expansion of the temporary holiday enacted by executive action over the summer. (Few companies have stopped collecting the tax, which would have to be repaid in 2021.)
“At the end of the year, on the assumption that I win, I’m going to terminate the payroll tax,” he said in August. Instead, he said, he would pay for the program through the general budget, which could count on “tremendous growth.” ...
https://cepr.net/preview-what-to-look-for-in-the-third-quarter-gdp-report/
October 27, 2020
What to Look for in the Third Quarter GDP Report
By DEAN BAKER
While we are virtually certain to see record growth for GDP in the third quarter, without a new stimulus package a drop is likely in the fourth quarter.
We are virtually certain to see a record growth figure for GDP in the third quarter, likely close to 35 percent at an annual rate. The sharp growth is a bounce back from a record plunge in the second quarter, which followed a sharp drop in the first quarter, when the shutdown measures first started to go into effect.
While this sort of bounce back following the shutdowns is encouraging, it still does not get the economy anywhere close to being back on track. The economy would have to grow at a 53.3 percent annual rate in the third quarter to make up the ground lost in the first and second quarters. If we assumed a modest 2.0 percent growth path, then we would need to see a 62.7 percent annual growth rate to get the economy back to its pre-pandemic growth path.
There will be sharp differences across sectors in the extent of the recovery.
While it would take annualized growth of 60.7 percent to make up the drop in consumption over the last two quarters, goods would only need a 12.0 percent increase, compared to a 90.5 percent increase in expenditures on services. It is likely that we will actually be well above the pre-pandemic level of spending on goods, as we have seen strong spending on cars and also store-bought food, as a replacement for restaurant food.
On the other hand, consumption of services such as health care, transportation, recreation, and restaurants, was very hard hit. It would take annual growth rates of over 100 percent from the second quarter levels to make up the ground lost in these sectors. While we are likely to see very strong growth in all four categories, we will almost certainly still be far below the pre-pandemic level.
Investment is likely to show a mixed picture.
Equipment investment has been coming back. We will see strong growth for the quarter, but will still not be anywhere near the levels of the fourth quarter of last year. Nonresidential construction is likely to show a further decline from the second quarter, as construction of office and retail buildings is slumping. By contrast, residential construction will be very strong, as low interest rates and people choosing to move due to the increased ability to work remotely is leading to a building boom.
The trade deficit is virtually certain to show an increase.
Both exports and imports have plummeted since the pandemic, but US exports have been harder hit. This is true for both trade in goods and services. The latter has fallen sharply due to reduced international travel since the US had a large pre-pandemic surplus in this area. Trade will almost certainly be a large drag on growth in the third quarter.
We are likely to see a fallback in the third quarter in state and local government spending.
Government spending had largely held up in the first and second quarters, but as state and local governments are forced to reduce spending in response to budget crunches there will almost certainly be sharper cutbacks in the fourth quarter unless Congress can quickly pass a new stimulus package.
The biggest issue here is the pace of the economy going forward....
Record Economic Growth Expected, but Problems Remain
NY Times - October 29
The last major releases of U.S. economic data before the election are coming Thursday. They are expected to show that the economy has made significant gains since the spring’s pandemic-induced shutdowns, but that the recovery remains incomplete.
The Commerce Department will release its preliminary estimate of economic growth in the third quarter. Economists surveyed by FactSet expect the report to show that gross domestic product grew 7 percent, the equivalent of 30.9 percent on an annualized basis. That would represent by far the fastest growth since quarterly statistics began after World War II.
But the economy is still in a deep hole. If forecasts prove accurate, G.D.P. remains 3 to 4 percent smaller than before the pandemic. By comparison, G.D.P. shrank 4 percent over the entire year and a half of the Great Recession a decade ago.
Moreover, monthly data indicates that progress slowed over the course of the third quarter, a slowdown most economists expect to worsen in the final three months of the year as virus cases rise and federal aid to households and businesses fades.
“We’re having a record recovery, but it comes after an even more record collapse, and it looks like economic momentum is fading in the fourth quarter,” said Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist for TD Securities.
Also coming on Thursday is the weekly data from the Labor Department showing new claims for unemployment benefits. Economists expect that report to show that applications for state benefits changed relatively little last week at nearly 800,000 — vastly lower than the peak of more than six million in April, but still high by historical standards.
Related: Why the Best GDP. Report Ever Won’t Mean the Economy Has Healed
... The third quarter’s record-setting growth is effectively an echo of the second quarter’s equally unprecedented contraction, when business shutdowns and stay-at-home orders led gross domestic product to fall by 9 percent. Strong growth was inevitable as the economy began to reopen.
While the economy has revived considerably since last spring, it is far short of its level before the pandemic. And progress is slowing.
“Employment has come back to some extent, but the unemployment rate is still high, wage and salary income is still low,” said Ben Herzon, executive director of IHS Markit, a forecasting firm. “Demand is still being depressed by the pandemic.” ...
https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=3&isuri=1&select_all_years=0&nipa_table_list=5&series=q&1=5&2=2007&3=2018&4=q&5=x&first_year=2017&6=0&7=survey&last_year=2020&scale=-9&thetable=
October 29, 2020
Defense spending was 59.7% of federal government consumption and investment in July through September 2020. *
$887.3 / $1,486.6 = 59.7%
Defense spending was 23.2% of all government consumption and investment in July through September 2020.
$887.3 / $3,824.5 = 23.2%
Defense spending was 4.2% of GDP in July through September 2020.
$887.3 / $21,157.6 = 4.2%
* Billions of dollars
October 28, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 9,120,751)
Deaths ( 233,130)
India
Cases ( 8,038,765)
Deaths ( 120,563)
France
Cases ( 1,235,132)
Deaths ( 35,785)
UK
Cases ( 942,275)
Deaths ( 45,675)
Mexico
Cases ( 901,268)
Deaths ( 89,814)
Germany
Cases ( 479,621)
Deaths ( 10,359)
Canada
Cases ( 225,586)
Deaths ( 10,032)
China
Cases ( 85,868)
Deaths ( 4,634)
October 28, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
US ( 703)
Mexico ( 694)
UK ( 672)
France ( 548)
Canada ( 265)
Germany ( 124)
India ( 87)
China ( 3)
Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 10.0%, 4.8% and 2.9% for Mexico, the United Kingdom and France respectively. These ratios are high, but have been significantly higher, while falling recently as new cases are recorded and treatment is increasingly effective.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/29/opinion/trump-trade-international-relations.html
October 29, 2020
Trump Killed the Pax Americana
By Paul Krugman
There are, I suppose, some people who still imagine that if and when Donald Trump leaves office we’ll see a rebirth of civility and cooperation in U.S. politics. They are, of course, hopelessly naïve. America in the 2020s will remain a deeply polarized nation, rife with crazy conspiracy theories and, quite possibly, plagued by right-wing terrorism.
But that won’t be Trump’s legacy. The truth is that we were already well down that road before he came along. And on the other side, if the Democrats win big, I expect to see many of Trump’s substantive policies reversed, and then some. Environmental protection and the social safety net will probably end up substantially stronger, taxes on the rich substantially higher, than they were under Barack Obama.
Trump’s lasting legacy, I suspect, will come in international affairs. For almost 70 years America played a special role in the world, one that no nation had ever played before. We’ve now lost that role, and I don’t see how we can ever get it back.
You see, American dominance represented a new form of superpower hegemony.
Our government’s behavior was by no means saintly; we did some terrible things, supporting dictators and undermining democracies from Iran to Chile. And sometimes it seemed as if one of our main goals was to make the world safe for multinational corporations.
But we weren’t a crude exploiter, pillaging other countries for our own gain. The Pax Americana arguably dated from the enactment of the Marshall Plan in 1948; that is, from the moment when a conquering nation chose to help its defeated foes rebuild rather than demanding that they pay tribute.
And we were a country that kept its word.
To take the area I know best, the United States took the lead in creating a rules-based system for international trade. The rules were designed to fit American ideas about how the world should work, placing limits on the ability of governments to intervene in markets. But once the rules were in place, we followed them ourselves. When the World Trade Organization ruled against the United States, as it did for example in the case of George W. Bush’s steel tariffs, the U.S. government accepted that judgment.
We also stood by our allies. We might have trade or other disputes with Germany or South Korea, but nobody considered the possibility that America would stand aside if either country was invaded.
Trump changed all that.
What, for example, is the point of a rules-based trading system when the system’s creator and erstwhile guardian imposes tariffs based on transparently bad-faith arguments — such as the claim that imports of aluminum from Canada (!) threaten national security?
How useful is America as an ally when the president suggests that he might not defend European nations because, in his judgment, they don’t spend enough on NATO?
Is America still the leader of the free world when top officials seem friendlier to nations like Hungary, where democracy has effectively collapsed — or even to murderous autocracies like Saudi Arabia — than to longstanding democratic allies?
Now, if Trump is defeated, a Biden administration will probably do its best to restore America’s traditional role in the world. We’ll start following trade rules; we’ll rejoin the Paris climate accord and rescind plans to withdraw from the World Health Organization. We’ll assure our allies that we have their backs, and rebuild alliances with other democracies....
October 28, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
Belgium ( 951)
Spain ( 758)
US ( 703)
Mexico ( 694)
UK ( 672)
Italy ( 627)
Sweden ( 586)
France ( 548)
Netherlands ( 420)
Ireland ( 383)
Canada ( 265)
Switzerland ( 249)
Portugal ( 235)
Luxembourg ( 234)
Germany ( 124)
Denmark ( 123)
Austria ( 114)
India ( 87)
Finland ( 64)
Greece ( 58)
Norway ( 52)
Australia ( 35)
Japan ( 14)
Korea ( 9)
China ( 3)
https://cepr.net/gdp-2020-10/
October 29, 2020
Record 33.1 Percent Surge Still Leaves GDP 3.5 Percent Below Pre-Pandemic Level
By DEAN BAKER
The trade deficit reached a record in the third quarter.
GDP grew at a record 33.1 percent annual rate, as the economy bounced back from the pandemic-driven shutdowns in the second quarter. However, even with this record growth, the economy was still 3.5 percent below its pre-pandemic level. If we assume a modest 2.0 percent annual growth rate, the third quarter GDP would be more than 5.0 percent below the trend path from the pre-recession period.
[Graph]
Sharp Divergences in Growth Paths
There are very different growth stories depending on the sector. Goods output in most areas has largely recovered from the shutdown, with much of third-quarter spending the result of pent-up demand. Consumption of durable goods was 11.9 percent above the 2019 fourth-quarter level, as spending on cars, furniture, and recreational goods and vehicles were all sharply higher. Spending on nondurable goods is up a more modest 4.0 percent from the fourth-quarter level, mostly due to people buying food at stores instead of eating at restaurants.
Spending on services continues to be badly depressed. It was 7.7 percent below the 2019 fourth-quarter level. Spending on recreation services was down 32.4 percent and on restaurants 19.5 percent, from the pre-pandemic level. Spending on health care is down 7.0 percent, while spending on transportation is down 23.3 percent from its pre-pandemic level.
Housing is Booming
Housing construction rose at a 59.3 percent annual rate, adding 2.09 percentage points to the quarter’s growth. Residential construction in the third quarter was 5.1 percent above its 2019 fourth quarter level. This reflects both extraordinarily low interest rates and the many people that opted to move in response to the pandemic and increased opportunities for remote work.
Investment Shows Mixed Picture
Nonresidential investment boomed in the third quarter, rising at a 20.3 percent annual rate. However, this was all driven by a 70.1 percent rise in equipment investment, as investment in structures fell at a 14.6 percent rate, while investment in intellectual products declined at a 1.0 percent rate.
The bounce back in equipment investment is due to both factories being able to reopen and operate near capacity and strong demand for cars and other durable goods. Equipment investment is just 1.9 percent below the pre-pandemic level. The drop in structures can be explained by reduced demand for office space and also retail space as the pandemic has led to a huge shift towards online shopping. Structure investment in the quarter was 14.0 percent below the pre-pandemic level. The decline in investment in intellectual products is partially attributable to the decline in movie production due to the pandemic.
Trade Deficit Hits Record ....
https://twitter.com/qiaocollective/status/1321823856017879040
Qiao Collective @qiaocollective
Despite endorsements from China, Europe, Japan, and Africa, the U.S. has vetoed the appointment of Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as the first African head of the World Trade Organization:
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3107506/nigerias-ngozi-okonjo-iweala-path-lead-wto-us-china-divided
Nigerian set for WTO nod, but US-China divided on leadership choice
The race to lead the World Trade Organization is nearly run, with the Nigerian candidate looking most likely to take the reins of the Geneva body.
10:39 AM · Oct 29, 2020
That the United States at this time would not choose to allow the World Trade Organization to be led by a Nigerian woman strikes me as similar to the US choice to withdraw from a World Health Organization being led by an Ethiopian man.
October 28, 2020
Coronavirus
Massachusetts
Cases ( 154,218)
Deaths ( 9,924)
Deaths per million ( 1,440)
------------------------------------
October 28, 2020
Coronavirus
New York
Cases ( 537,204)
Deaths ( 33,621)
Deaths per million ( 1,728)
I miss Mark Thoma's blog. I could read the comments there and get such a range of relevant news at the same time. I didn't find that it distracted from the many discussions about the posts much at all. But then it wasn't me writing the posts of course.
I especially miss Anne who could access an amazing amount of data from the Federal Reserve and other sources and pull up all kinds of relevant information and links that I would never find on my own.
I appreciate this blog too of course. Even though I don't comment very often. And thank you for putting it out there
just make posting require an account or email and ban the spammers
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/29/opinion/trump-lies.html
October 29, 2020
Lies, Damned Lies and Trump Rallies
Who you gonna believe, me or your own eyes?
By Paul Krugman
Donald Trump lies a lot. In fact, he lies so often that several media organizations try to keep a running tally, and even try to draw political inferences from fluctuations in the number of lies he tells in a given month (although the trend has been relentlessly upward).
But we’ve crossed some kind of threshold in the past few weeks. It’s not so much that Trump is lying more as that the lies have become qualitatively different — even more blatant, and increasingly untethered to any plausible political strategy.
Back in the day, Trump lies tended to be those like his repeated claims that he was about to unroll a health care plan that would be far better and cheaper than Obamacare, while protecting pre-existing conditions.
Those of us following the issue closely knew that there was no such plan, indeed that there couldn’t be given the logic of health insurance; we also knew that he had made the same promise many times, but never delivered.
But ordinary voters aren’t experts in health policy and might not have remembered all those broken promises, so there was at least a chance that some people would be fooled.
In a way, Trump’s claims to be the victim of a vast “deep state” conspiracy were similar. They were obvious nonsense to people familiar with how the government actually works. But many voters aren’t experts in civics, and the conspiracy theorizing — like his claims that all negative reports are “fake news” — helped shield him from awkward facts.
But Trump’s recent lies have been different.
On Tuesday the White House science office went beyond Trump’s now-standard claims that we’re “rounding the corner” on the coronavirus and declared that one of the administration’s major achievements was “ending the Covid-19 pandemic.”
Who was that supposed to convince, when almost everyone is aware not only that the pandemic continues, but that coronavirus cases and hospitalizations are surging? All it did was make Trump look even more out of touch....
https://cepr.net/donald-trump-and-jair-bolsonaro-plot-to-get-brazilians-killed/
October 29, 2020
Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro Plot to Get Brazilians Killed
By Dean Baker
It’s not normal for a president of the United States to make plans with the president of an allied country, that is likely to get tens of thousands of people in that country killed. But we’re not talking about ordinary presidents; we’re talking about Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro.
The goal of the Trump-Bolsonaro plot was to keep Brazil from getting access to a vaccine developed in China. China is apparently somewhat ahead of the United States in developing an effective vaccine. While the pharmaceutical companies in the United States have approached a vaccine by developing a new RNA method, the leading Chinese companies have pursued an old-fashioned dead virus approach.
This allowed these companies to move more quickly * with their testing and get to the final Phase 3 stage of clinical trials before the U.S. companies. They also went the route of picking countries with high infection rates, like Brazil, to conduct their trials. A high infection rate makes it easier to determine how effective a vaccine is in preventing infections.
Now that Sinovac, one of the leading Chinese companies, is concluding its trials, it is negotiating large sales of the vaccine to Brazil. Joao Doria, the governor of Sao Paulo, had negotiated a major purchase for the people in his state. Bolsonaro has sought to nix the deal.
According to a press account, ** Bolsonaro made this decision after meeting with Trump’s national security adviser, Robert O’Brien. Trump apparently would consider it a setback in his contest with China for global stature, if Brazil were to adopt a vaccine developed by a Chinese company.
Brazil ranks second to the United States in total deaths from the pandemic and is seeing close to 400 deaths a day. This means a delay in getting a vaccine of even a month can mean over 10,000 additional deaths. If the delay is longer, as seems likely, the number of needless deaths would increase accordingly.
Bolsonaro’s claim is that he doesn’t want his country to be “anyone’s guinea pig.” But this is hardly the issue. Large-scale purchases of the Sinovac vaccine would come only after Brazil’s regulatory authority had determined that the vaccine was safe and effective. Bolsonaro’s move was purely an effort to satisfy his friend Donald Trump. He apparently has no more respect for the lives of the people in Brazil than Trump does for people in the United States.
* https://cepr.net/its-not-vaccine-nationalism-its-vaccine-idiocy/
** https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3107222/brazils-coronavirus-vaccine-squabble-another-fight-over-us
October 29, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 9,212,767)
Deaths ( 234,177)
India
Cases ( 8,088,046)
Deaths ( 121,131)
France
Cases ( 1,282,769)
Deaths ( 36,020)
UK
Cases ( 965,340)
Deaths ( 45,955)
Mexico
Cases ( 906,863)
Deaths ( 90,309)
Germany
Cases ( 498,353)
Deaths ( 10,435)
Canada
Cases ( 228,542)
Deaths ( 10,074)
China
Cases ( 85,915)
Deaths ( 4,634)
October 29, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
US ( 706)
Mexico ( 698)
UK ( 676)
France ( 551)
Canada ( 266)
Germany ( 124)
India ( 87)
China ( 3)
More than 90,000 new coronavirus cases yesterday in the United States, and the same today. This after so many months.
What a tragedy.
https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1322144736224956416
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
So, if anyone is still impressed by the 7.4% US growth from the 2nd to 3rd quarter — do NOT use annual rates! — the Euro area grew 12.7%. In both cases it's a partial snapback that still leaves us way down from pre-covid; in both cases rising cases bode very badly for the future
7:54 AM · Oct 30, 2020
There were more than 100,000 new coronavirus cases yesterday in the US:
October 30, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 9,316,297)
Deaths ( 235,159)
India
Cases ( 8,136,166)
Deaths ( 121,681)
France
Cases ( 1,331,984)
Deaths ( 36,565)
UK
Cases ( 989,745)
Deaths ( 46,229)
Mexico
Cases ( 912,811)
Deaths ( 90,773)
Germany
Cases ( 517,720)
Deaths ( 10,523)
Canada
Cases ( 231,999)
Deaths ( 10,110)
China
Cases ( 85,940)
Deaths ( 4,634)
October 30, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
US ( 709)
Mexico ( 702)
UK ( 680)
France ( 560)
Canada ( 267)
Germany ( 125)
India ( 88)
China ( 3)
Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 9.9%, 4.7% and 2.7% for Mexico, the United Kingdom and France respectively. These ratios are high, but have been significantly higher, while falling recently as new cases are rapidly recorded.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/31/opinion/republicans-biden-taxes.html
October 31, 2020
Republicans, Not Biden, Are About to Raise Your Taxes
People making from $10,000 and $30,000 — nearly one-quarter of Americans — are among millions slated to pay more in 2021.
By Joseph E. Stiglitz
The Trump administration has a dirty little secret: It’s not just planning to increase taxes on most Americans. The increase has already been signed, sealed and delivered, buried in the pages of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
President Trump and his congressional allies hoodwinked us. The law they passed initially lowered taxes for most Americans, but it built in automatic, stepped tax increases every two years that begin in 2021 and that by 2027 would affect nearly everyone but people at the top of the economic hierarchy. All taxpayer income groups with incomes of $75,000 and under — that’s about 65 percent of taxpayers — will face a higher tax rate in 2027 than in 2019.
For most, in fact, it’s a delayed tax increase dressed up as a tax cut. How many times have you heard Trump and his allies mention that? They surmised — correctly, so far — that if they waited to add the tax increases until after the 2020 election, few of the people most affected were likely to remember who was responsible.
Looking at the analyses of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation at the time the December 2017 tax bill was enacted, we see very clearly how different income groups are affected by the Trump tax plan. And it’s disturbing.
The current poverty line for a family of four is $26,200: People with incomes between $10,000 and $30,000 — nearly one-quarter of Americans — are among those scheduled to pay a higher average tax rate in 2021 than in years before the tax “cut” was passed. The C.B.O. and Joint Committee estimated that those with an income of $20,000 to $30,000 would owe an extra $365 next year — these are people who are struggling just to pay rent and put food on the table.
Of course, the poor have never mattered much to the Republican Party, but those on the edge of poverty have been particularly hard hit by the pandemic and the recession its caused, so Trump’s planned tax increases seem especially heartless, and impractical, when you consider that their higher tax payments, while a huge burden for them, will add little to the budget.
By 2027, when the law’s provisions are set to be fully enacted, with the stealth tax increases complete, the country will be neatly divided into two groups: Those making over $100,000 will on average get a tax cut. Those earning under $100,000 — an income bracket encompassing three-quarters of taxpayers — will not....
October 31, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 9,402,590)
Deaths ( 236,072)
India
Cases ( 8,182,881)
Deaths ( 122,149)
France
Cases ( 1,367,625)
Deaths ( 36,788)
UK
Cases ( 1,011,660)
Deaths ( 46,555)
Mexico
Cases ( 918,811)
Deaths ( 91,289)
Germany
Cases ( 531,790)
Deaths ( 10,583)
Canada
Cases ( 234,511)
Deaths ( 10,136)
China
Cases ( 85,973)
Deaths ( 4,634)
October 31, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
US ( 712)
Mexico ( 706)
UK ( 685)
France ( 563)
Canada ( 268)
Germany ( 126)
India ( 88)
China ( 3)
Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 9.9%, 4.6% and 2.7% for Mexico, the United Kingdom and France respectively. These ratios are high, but have been significantly higher, while falling recently as new cases are being rapidly recorded.
October 31, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
Belgium ( 987)
Spain ( 767)
US ( 712)
Mexico ( 706)
UK ( 685)
Italy ( 639)
Sweden ( 587)
France ( 563)
Netherlands ( 431)
Ireland ( 386)
Canada ( 268)
Switzerland ( 265)
Luxembourg ( 249)
Portugal ( 246)
Germany ( 126)
Denmark ( 124)
Austria ( 123)
India ( 88)
Finland ( 65)
Greece ( 60)
Norway ( 52)
Australia ( 35)
Japan ( 14)
Korea ( 9)
China ( 3)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/business/coronavirus-imf-world-bank.html
November 1, 2020
How the Wealthy World Has Failed Poor Countries During the Pandemic
Despite pledges for debt relief and expanded programs, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund have delivered meager aid, say economists.
By Peter S. Goodman
LONDON — Like much of the developing world, Pakistan was alarmingly short of doctors and medical facilities long before anyone had heard of Covid-19. Then the pandemic overwhelmed hospitals, forcing some to turn away patients. As fear upended daily life, families lost livelihoods and struggled to feed themselves.
On the other side of the world in Washington, two deep-pocketed organizations, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, vowed to spare poor countries from desperation. Their economists warned that immense relief was required to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe and profound damage to global prosperity. Emerging markets make up 60 percent of the world economy, by one I.M.F. measure. A blow to their fortunes inflicts pain around the planet.
Wages sent home to poor countries by migrant workers — a vital artery of finance — have diminished. The shutdown of tourism has punished many developing countries. So has plunging demand for oil. Billions of people have lost the wherewithal to buy food, increasing malnutrition. By next year, the pandemic could push 150 million people into extreme poverty, the World Bank has warned, in the first increase in more than two decades.
But the World Bank and the I.M.F. have failed to translate their concern into meaningful support, say economists. That has left less-affluent countries struggling with limited resources and untenable debts, prompting their governments to reduce spending just as it is needed to bolster health care systems and aid people suffering lost income.
“A lost decade of growth in large parts of the world remains a plausible prospect absent urgent, concerted and sustained policy response,” concluded a recent report * from the Group of 30, a gathering of international finance experts, including Lawrence Summers, a former economic adviser to President Barack Obama, and Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration….
* https://group30.org/images/uploads/publications/G30_Sovereign_Debt_and_Financing_for_Recovery_after_the_COVID-19_Shock_1.pdf
https://cepr.net/the-nyt-prints-usual-nonsense-about-bubbles/
November 1, 2020
The New York Times Prints Usual Nonsense About Bubbles
By Dean Baker
The New York Times has apparently assigned Ruchir Sharma the task of writing periodic pieces about the prospect of a crashing bubble giving us another horrible recession. These pieces always show a failure to understand the most basic features of the Great Recession. This fits with the need of elite-types to pretend that the risks of the housing bubble were hard to see, as opposed to requiring a passing glance at quarterly GDP data.
Shamir’s latest * tells us that we should be worried because house prices are rising even as we are in a recession. While it is true that house prices are rising, people who have been paying attention to the data, know that large segments of the population are doing just fine, in spite of the recession. The job loss has been hugely concentrated among those in relatively low-paying industries, like hotels and restaurants. These lower paid workers are much less likely to be home buyers than the workers who kept their jobs.
With interest rates at historic lows, people can afford to pay more for housing, as Sharma notes. And, with many more workers now able to work remotely, it should not be surprising that we would see a strong housing market.
Sharma implies that we would face some catastrophic situation if interest rates and then the prices of houses and other assets will fall....
* https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/31/opinion/real-estate-home-prices-covid.html
November 1, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 9,473,911)
Deaths ( 236,471)
India
Cases ( 8,229,322)
Deaths ( 122,642)
France
Cases ( 1,413,915)
Deaths ( 37,019)
UK
Cases ( 1,034,914)
Deaths ( 46,717)
Mexico
Cases ( 924,962)
Deaths ( 91,753)
Germany
Cases ( 544,346)
Deaths ( 10,622)
Canada
Cases ( 236,841)
Deaths ( 10,179)
China
Cases ( 85,997)
Deaths ( 4,634)
November 1, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
US ( 713)
Mexico ( 709)
UK ( 687)
France ( 567)
Canada ( 269)
Germany ( 126)
India ( 89)
China ( 3)
Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 9.9%, 4.5% and 2.6% for Mexico, the United Kingdom and France respectively. These ratios are high, but have been significantly higher, while falling recently as new cases are recorded and treatment is increasingly effective.
November 1, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 9,473,911)
Deaths ( 236,471)
Serious, Critical Cases ( 17,205)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/opinion/trump-election-lies.html
November 2, 2020
The War on Truth Reaches Its Climax
Trump is telling two big lies, and a third will come soon.
By Paul Krugman
I began writing a column for The Times way back in 2000. My beat was supposed to be economics and business. But I couldn’t help noticing that one of that year’s contenders for the presidency was systematically making false claims about his policy proposals. George W. Bush kept insisting that his one-percent-friendly tax cuts were targeted on the middle class, and his plan to privatize Social Security just wished away the system’s obligations to older Americans.
At the time, however, my editors told me that it wasn’t acceptable to use the word “lie” when writing about presidential candidates.
By now, though, most informed observers have, I think, finally decided that it’s OK to report the fact that Donald Trump lies constantly.
Many of the lies are trivial, often bizarrely so, like Trump’s repeated claims to have received an award that doesn’t even exist. But the president has closed out this year’s campaign with two huge, dangerous lies — and there’s every reason to fear that this week he will roll out a third big lie, perhaps even more dangerous than the first two.
The first big lie is the claim that America is being menaced by hordes of “rioters, looters, arsonists, gun-grabbers, flag-burners, Marxists.”
Anyone who walks around the “anarchist jurisdictions” of New York or Seattle can see with their own eyes that nothing like this is happening. And the data bear out the obvious. One systematic study found that the summer’s Black Lives Matter protests were overwhelmingly peaceful, and that “most of the violence that did take place was, in fact, directed against the B.L.M. protesters.”
Oh, and Trump keeps claiming that Joe Biden won’t condemn the small amount of violence that has actually happened — when Biden has, in fact, done exactly that.
So Trump wants Americans to be terrified of a menace that exists only in his imagination. At the same time, he wants us to ignore the very real menace of Covid-19.
Over the past few months Trump has effectively abandoned any effort to limit the spread of the coronavirus. In fact, he has been actively promoting that spread. One credible Stanford study estimated that Trump rallies, which involve large numbers of shouting people packed closely together, most unmasked, have caused around 30,000 infections and 700 deaths.
But Trump wants Americans to believe that the pandemic — which killed more Americans last month than are murdered in a typical year — is fake news. We’re “rounding the corner,” he insists, even as infections and hospitalizations are rising at a terrifying rate. The news media is going on about “Covid, Covid, Covid” only because it’s out to get him. Doctors are inflating the reported death toll because they want to make more money.
These big lies are immensely destructive, and not just because they lead to bad policies. Like it or not, presidential rhetoric affects how millions of Americans behave....
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/opinion/harry-belafonte-donald-trump.html
November 2, 2020
Trump Is Standing in Our Way
If the president wins again, we have so much more to lose.
By Harry Belafonte
Four years ago, when Donald Trump first ran for president, he urged Black people to support him, asking us, “What have you got to lose?”
Four years later, we know exactly what we had to lose. Our lives, as we died in disproportionate numbers from the pandemic he has let flourish among us. Our wealth, as we have suffered disproportionately from the worst economic drop America has seen in 90 years. Our safety, as this president has stood behind those police who kill us in the streets and by the armies of white supremacy who march by night and scheme in the light of day.
We have learned other things from this president, too. We have learned the names that we say now, over and over again, at each protest, so that no one will forget them. The names Breonna Taylor and George Floyd and Atatiana Jefferson and Stephon Clark and so many more. Such killings did not start with Mr. Trump, of course. But he wants us to forget them.
If we do, he has offered us a “Platinum Plan” for “Black Economic Empowerment.” The name is appropriate because Mr. Trump is a man who thinks always in terms of financial transactions and deals. A “Platinum Plan,” as if he is offering to upgrade our credit card status. The plan, which at two pages is derisively brief, offers us a hodgepodge of things that he thinks we would like. He will prosecute the Ku Klux Klan — and antifa activists — as terrorists. He will make Juneteenth a national holiday and lynching a national hate crime. He will create “peaceful” urban, Black neighborhoods, replete with school choice, increased homeownership and the “highest standards” of policing. He will begin “a national clemency project” designed to “right wrongful prosecutions” and “pardon individuals who have reformed.”
In his ignorance or his indifference, or perhaps in his contempt, Mr. Trump does not seem to understand the difference between promises made and promises kept. Another Republican president, Ulysses S. Grant, first suppressed the Klan 150 years ago (and notable by its absence is any Trump promise to suppress the right-wing “militias” of Michigan, the Proud Boys or any of the others). The United States — finally, belatedly — made lynching a federal crime in the civil rights era, almost 60 years ago. Peaceful neighborhoods with affordable homes, good schools, a police force interested in protecting its citizens instead of treating them as an occupied people; safety from domestic terrorists and mob violence, economic opportunity, the celebration of our heritage, and impartial and merciful treatment under the law — these are the rights that most white people in America have long taken for granted, not some sort of concession to be offered as if we were indeed another nation....
November 2, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 9,567,543)
Deaths ( 236,997)
India
Cases ( 8,266,914)
Deaths ( 123,139)
France
Cases ( 1,466,433)
Deaths ( 37,035)
UK
Cases ( 1,053,864)
Deaths ( 46,853)
Mexico
Cases ( 929,392)
Deaths ( 91,895)
Germany
Cases ( 560,586)
Deaths ( 10,734)
Canada
Cases ( 240,263)
Deaths ( 10,208)
China
Cases ( 86,021)
Deaths ( 4,634)
November 2, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
US ( 715)
Mexico ( 710)
UK ( 689)
France ( 573)
Canada ( 270)
Germany ( 128)
India ( 89)
China ( 3)
https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1323622727467573248
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
22 years since I wrote this and worried that Japan could be a harbinger of the future 1/
https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/its-baaack-japans-slump-and-the-return-of-the-liquidity-trap/
It’s Baaack: Japan’s Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap
THE LIQUIDITY TRAP-that awkward condition in which monetary policy loses its grip because the nominal interest rate is essentially zero, in which the quantity of money becomes irrelevant because...
8:47 AM · Nov 3, 2020
Now the chief economist of the IMF says the whole world is there 2/
https://www.ft.com/content/2e1c0555-d65b-48d1-9af3-825d187eec58
Global liquidity trap requires a big fiscal response
Central banks have taken unprecedented steps, but now demand needs a lift
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/health/Covid-pregnancy-health-risks.html
November 2, 2020
Pregnant Women Face Increased Risks From Covid-19
If symptomatic, they were more likely to develop complications and die than nonpregnant women with symptoms.
By Roni Caryn Rabin
U.S. health officials on Monday added pregnancy to the list of conditions that put people with Covid-19 at increased risk of developing severe illness, including a heightened risk of death....
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/health/coronavirus-testing-quidel-sofia.html
November 2, 2020
A Rapid Virus Test Falters in People Without Symptoms, Study Finds
A head-to-head comparison of lab and rapid coronavirus tests drew mixed reactions from experts, who raised concerns about accuracy.
By Katherine J. Wu
As the number of coronavirus cases in the United States exceeds 9.2 million, experts continue to call for an enormous scale-up of testing among both the healthy and the sick — a necessary measure, they have said, to curb the spread of an infection that can move swiftly and silently through the population.
One strategy has involved the widespread use of rapid tests, which forgo sophisticated equipment and can return results in minutes. Purchased in bulk by the federal government and shipped nationwide, millions of these products have already found their way into clinics, nursing homes, schools, athletic teams’ facilities and more, buoying hopes that the tests might hasten a return to normalcy.
But a new study casts doubt on whether rapid tests perform as promised under real-world conditions, especially when used in people without symptoms….
There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since May 17. Since June began there have been 3 limited community clusters of infections, in Beijing, Dalian and Urumqi, each of which was contained with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, with each outbreak ending in a few weeks.
Currently there are 2 apparently limited community clusters in Qingdao and Kashgar, with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine again being used to identify the origins of as well as to contain and end the outbreaks.
Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine. Asymptomatic cases are all quarantined. The flow of imported cases to China is low, but has been persistent.
There are now 391 active coronavirus cases in all on the Chinese mainland, 9 of which cases are classed as serious or critical.
Latin American countries have recorded 4 of the 10 and 6 of the 16 highest number of coronavirus cases among all countries. Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Chile. Mexico has the tenth highest number of cases among all countries, and the fourth highest number of cases among Latin American countries.
November 2, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
US ( 713) *
Brazil ( 753)
Argentina ( 698)
Colombia ( 620)
Mexico ( 712)
Peru ( 1,044)
Chile ( 747)
Ecuador ( 716)
Bolivia ( 745)
* Descending number of cases
https://cepr.net/as-we-wait-to-figure-out-who-we-elected-new-york-times-feeds-us-pablum-on-our-social-problems/
November 4, 2020
As We Wait to Figure Out Who We Elected, New York Times Feeds Us Pablum on Our Social Problems
By Dean Baker
In its efforts to provide us exactly what we don’t need now, the New York Times gave us an utterly pointless piece * by Yuval Levin telling us that we shouldn’t worry about national politics and instead focus on helping our neighbors and communities. This paragraph tells it all:
“More often, though, our deepest problems aren’t really amenable to resolution by a president. These problems have been adding up to something of a social crisis, evident not only in the breakdown of our political culture but also in the isolation and despair that have driven up suicide and opioid-abuse rates, and in a sense of alienation that leaves whole communities feeling excluded from the American story and in turn angrily rejecting it.”
Well Mr. Levin may not understand this, but many of the “deepest problems” he describes are actually pretty direct results of the people who serve as president or in Congress. Since he refers to deaths of despair, we now know that a major cause was the loss of millions of good-paying manufacturing jobs due to trade. This job loss was the result of trade agreements that were explicitly designed to put our manufacturing workers in direct competition with low-paid workers in the developing world, while largely protecting doctors, dentists, and other highly paid professionals from the same competition.
People, most often women, also face very deep problems when they can’t get decent child care for their kids. They need to work to put bread on the table, but they don’t make enough to ensure that their children have safe high quality care. We can tell similar stories with access to health care and housing.
One of my favorite stories is that if the minimum wage had kept pace with productivity growth since 1968, as it did from when it was created in 1938 until 1968, it would be $24 an hour today. Imagine a world where the lowest paid worker earned $48,000 a year and a two-earner couple would earn at least $96,000 a year....
* https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/opinion/2020-election.html
November 3, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 9,692,528)
Deaths ( 238,641)
India
Cases ( 8,312,947)
Deaths ( 123,650)
France
Cases ( 1,502,763)
Deaths ( 38,289)
UK
Cases ( 1,073,882)
Deaths ( 47,250)
Mexico
Cases ( 933,155)
Deaths ( 92,100)
Germany
Cases ( 577,131)
Deaths ( 10,883)
Canada
Cases ( 242,368)
Deaths ( 10,261)
China
Cases ( 86,070)
Deaths ( 4,634)
November 3, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
US ( 720)
Mexico ( 712)
UK ( 695)
France ( 586)
Canada ( 271)
Germany ( 130)
India ( 89)
China ( 3)
Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 9.9%, 4.4% and 2.5% for Mexico, the United Kingdom and France respectively. These ratios are high, but have been significantly higher, while falling recently as new cases are being rapidly recorded.
There were 108,000 new coronavirus cases in the United States yesterday:
November 4, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 9,801,355)
Deaths ( 239,829)
Serious, Critical Cases ( 18,045)
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-11/05/c_139493620.htm
November 5, 2020
China's centralized purchasing leads to 90 pct drop in price of coronary stents
TIANJIN -- Coronary stents, once priced at more than 10,000 yuan (about 1,500 U.S. dollars) each, are expected to become available in Chinese hospitals at roughly 1,000 yuan for the treatment of coronary heart disease.
That estimate comes from the results of the initial round of the Chinese government's centralized procurement program for high-value medical commodities, which were unveiled on Thursday in north China's Tianjin City.
The 10 varieties of coronary stents that were successful following bidding saw their average price down to around 700 yuan from about 13,000 yuan, according to the office in charge of the program.
They cover mainstream products now commonly used in health institutions, with quantities accounting for more than 70 percent of the intended purchase volumes of these institutions.
The average price for the same products from the same enterprises has decreased by 93 percent from 2019. The average price reduction for domestically made products is 92 percent, and it is 95 percent for imported products.
It is estimated that the price cut due to centralized purchasing will save patients some 10.9 billion yuan in related expenses.
https://cepr.net/preview-what-the-october-jobs-report-will-tell-us/
November 4, 2020
What the October Jobs Report Will Tell Us
By DEAN BAKER
There have been some anomalies in the data that are worth tracking.
With the period of rapid recovery from the shutdowns behind us, the labor market is likely looking at a long slog to get back to something resembling full employment. It clearly has lost considerable momentum now that the bulk of the CARES Act money has been spent. Furthermore, the economy will face serious headwinds, as the unchecked spread of the pandemic will lead to more measures curtailing business operations. It will also discourage people from visiting restaurants and using other services, even where there are no legal restrictions.
Job Growth Across Industries
The most immediate way to see how these effects are playing out is to see the mix of job growth across industries. Construction and manufacturing are likely to show healthy job growth. Residential construction is seeing a real boom due to low interest rates and the decision by many people to move out of major urban areas due to increased opportunities for remote work.
The surge in construction and home buying is also leading to high demand for many types of durable goods. People who have kept their jobs through the pandemic have money in the bank, and many are looking to make major purchases.
The picture with services, most obviously hotels and restaurants, looks very different. They are still far from having recovered the ground loss with the onset of the pandemic. It is entirely possible that we could see further job loss in these areas in response to the pandemic’s resurgence.
We are also likely to see further job loss in the state and local government sectors. These sectors have already been hard hit, but with these governments facing massive budget shortfalls, many will have little choice but to have more layoffs unless they get additional money from Washington.
Wages
It will be interesting to see the path of wage growth as we close out 2020 and get into 2021. In the shutdown period and the period of rapid recovery, wage growth was being driven by changes in composition, as tens of millions of workers lost their jobs and then many of them regained them.
With job growth at a more normal level, the change in wages now is primarily reflecting the actual change in hourly wages for the people working. Last month, the average hourly wage rose by less than 0.1 percent. In construction, it was flat, and in manufacturing, it actually fell by 0.3 percent. Monthly wage data are highly erratic, especially when looking at the industry-level rather than economy-wide, but we should be looking for evidence that the weak labor market is slowing wage growth from its pre-pandemic pace of just over 3.0 percent.
Disadvantaged Groups Hit Hardest ....
There were more than 100,000 new coronavirus cases yesterday in the US, there are 100,000 new cases today:
November 4, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 9,801,355)
Deaths ( 239,829)
Serious, Critical Cases ( 18,045)
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-05/UAE-prime-minister-receives-China-developed-COVID-19-vaccine-shot-VaQSAHuH2o/index.html
November 5, 2020
UAE prime minister receives China-developed COVID-19 vaccine shot
The Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum said Tuesday he had received a COVID-19 vaccine.
Sheikh Mohammed, who's also the vice president of UAE and the ruler of Dubai, shared the news on Twitter, posting a photo of him getting vaccinated by a medical staffer.
"While receiving the COVID-19 vaccine today. We wish everyone safety and great health, and we are proud of our teams who have worked relentlessly to make the vaccine available in the UAE. The future will always be better in the UAE," he wrote in his post.
The vaccine he got was produced by the Chinese drug giant Sinopharm, according to a report from Qatari broadcaster Al Jazeera. It is nearing the end of Phase III trials in the UAE, Egypt, Bahrain and Jordan, which started in mid-July.
Sheikh Mohammed is the latest top Emirati official to be vaccinated against COVID-19.
Several ministers and senior officials have already received the vaccine in both the UAE and Bahrain, including UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan and Deputy Prime Minister Sheikh Saif bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, as well as Bahrain's crown prince.
In September, the UAE authorized the emergency use of Sinopharm's COVID-19 vaccine on health workers, after the country's health officials confirmed the positive results of the clinical trials....
Latin American countries have recorded 4 of the 10 and 6 of the 16 highest number of coronavirus cases among all countries. Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Chile. Mexico has the fourth highest number of cases among Latin American countries and the tenth highest number of cases among all countries.
November 4, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
US ( 723) *
Brazil ( 756)
Argentina ( 717)
Colombia ( 627)
Mexico ( 716)
Peru ( 1,047)
Chile ( 748)
Ecuador ( 716)
Bolivia ( 746)
* Descending number of cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-06/Chinese-mainland-reports-36-new-COVID-19-cases-30-from-abroad-VbO0kEIQ3m/index.html
November 6, 2020
Chinese mainland reports 36 new COVID-19 cases, 30 from abroad
The Chinese mainland registered 36 new confirmed COVID-19 cases on Thursday, 6 of which are local transmissions in northwest China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and 30 from overseas, the National Health Commission announced.
A total of 33 new asymptomatic COVID-19 cases were recorded, while 832 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation. No COVID-19-related deaths were reported on Thursday, and 17 patients were discharged from hospitals after recovering.
As of Thursday, the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases had reached 86,151, with 4,634 fatalities.
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-06/Chinese-mainland-reports-36-new-COVID-19-cases-30-from-abroad-VbO0kEIQ3m/img/e2bdf77b939e4a4382d3111f953ecc18/e2bdf77b939e4a4382d3111f953ecc18.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-06/Chinese-mainland-reports-36-new-COVID-19-cases-30-from-abroad-VbO0kEIQ3m/img/ef1062ea87424c1ba4b76c8a6b88ca3e/ef1062ea87424c1ba4b76c8a6b88ca3e.jpeg
[ There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since May 17. Since June began there have been 4 limited community clusters of infections, in Beijing, Dalian, Urumqi and Qingdao, each of which was contained with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, with each outbreak ending in a few weeks.
Currently there is an apparently limited community cluster in Kashgar, with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine again being used to identify the origins of as well as to contain and end the outbreak.
Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine. Asymptomatic cases are all quarantined. The flow of imported cases to China is low, but has been persistent.
There are now 419 active coronavirus cases in all on the Chinese mainland, 9 of which cases are classed as serious or critical. ]
November 5, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 9,919,522)
Deaths ( 240,953)
India
Cases ( 8,411,034)
Deaths ( 125,029)
France
Cases ( 1,601,367)
Deaths ( 39,037)
UK
Cases ( 1,123,197)
Deaths ( 48,120)
Mexico
Cases ( 943,630)
Deaths ( 93,228)
Germany
Cases ( 619,116)
Deaths ( 11,190)
Canada
Cases ( 251,338)
Deaths ( 10,381)
China
Cases ( 86,115)
Deaths ( 4,634)
November 5, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
US ( 726)
Mexico ( 720)
UK ( 708)
France ( 598)
Canada ( 274)
Germany ( 133)
India ( 90)
China ( 3)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/opinion/joe-biden-senate-mitch-mcconnell.html
November 5, 2020
Is America Becoming a Failed State?
Mitch McConnell may make the nation ungovernable.
By Paul Krugman
As I write this, it seems extremely likely that Joe Biden has won the presidency. And he clearly received millions more votes than his opponent. He can and should claim that he has been given a strong mandate to govern the nation.
But there are real questions about whether he will, in fact, be able to govern. At the moment, it seems likely that the Senate — which is wildly unrepresentative of the American people — will remain in the hands of an extremist party that will sabotage Biden in every way it can.
Before I get into the problems this confrontation is likely to cause, let’s talk about just how unrepresentative the Senate is.
Every state, of course, has two senators — which means that Wyoming’s 579,000 residents have as much weight as California’s 39 million. The overweighted states tend to be much less urbanized than the nation as a whole. And given the growing political divide between metropolitan and rural areas, this gives the Senate a strong rightward tilt.
An analysis by the website FiveThirtyEight.com found that the Senate in effect represents an electorate almost seven percentage points more Republican than the average voter. Cases like Susan Collins, who held on in a Democratic state, are exceptions; the underlying right-wing skew of the Senate is the main reason the G.O.P. will probably retain control despite a substantial Democratic victory in the presidential popular vote.
But, you may ask, why is divided control of government such a problem? After all, Republicans controlled one or both chambers of Congress for three-quarters of Barack Obama’s presidency, and we survived, didn’t we?
Yes, but.
In fact, G.O.P. obstruction did a lot of damage even during the Obama years. Republicans used hardball tactics, including threats to cause a default on the national debt, to force a premature withdrawal of fiscal support that slowed the pace of economic recovery. I’ve estimated that without this de facto sabotage, the unemployment rate in 2014 might have been about two percentage points lower than it actually was.
And the need for more spending is even more acute now than it was in 2011, when Republicans took control of the House.
Most immediately, the coronavirus is running wild, with new cases exceeding 100,000 a day and rising rapidly. This is going to hit the economy hard, even if state and local governments don’t impose new lockdowns.
We desperately need a new round of federal spending on health care, aid to the unemployed and businesses, and support for strapped state and local governments. Reasonable estimates suggest that we should spend $200 billion or more each month until a vaccine brings the pandemic to an end. I’d be shocked if a Senate still controlled by Mitch McConnell would agree to anything like this....
Latin American countries have recorded 4 of the 10 and 6 of the 16 highest number of coronavirus cases among all countries. Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Chile. Mexico has the fourth highest number of cases among Latin American countries and the tenth highest number of cases among all countries.
November 5, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
US ( 726) *
Brazil ( 759)
Argentina ( 723)
Colombia ( 631)
Mexico ( 720)
Peru ( 1,048)
Chile ( 751)
Ecuador ( 718)
Bolivia ( 747)
* Descending number of cases
https://twitter.com/BrankoMilan/status/1324485162055409664
Branko Milanovic @BrankoMilan
I have a feeling that, when it comes to the pandemic, the US is moving towards a Hobbesian state of affairs. The government no longer exists. Perhaps it is a libertarian dream too, but I think it will result in thousands and thousands of unnecessary deaths.
5:54 PM · Nov 5, 2020
Ten million coronavirus cases in the US, the Hobbesian state of affairs of Branko Milanovic.
November 6, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 10,058,586)
Deaths ( 242,230)
Serious, Critical currently ( 18,303)
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1206008.shtml
November 7, 2020
No infections among 56,000 people who traveled abroad after receiving Sinopharm-developed COVID-19 vaccine: developer
________________________________
None of the 56,000 people who were inoculated with a COVID-19 vaccine and travelled abroad have contracted the coronavirus, Sinopharm’s chairman said on Friday.
Sinopharm Chairman Liu Jingzhen, said at a conference on Friday that some 100,000 people have been vaccinated with the company’s vaccine and have shown no adverse reactions so far. Among those who were inoculated and travelled aboard, none have been infected with the virus, said Liu.
Some of those others who received the emergency-use vaccine are employees of China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation and Technology giant Huawei.
Liu said that there are 99 people in Huawei’s Mexico office, and 81 were vaccinated. Ten unvaccinated employees contracted with the virus in an outbreak in this office.
The fact that no one who received the vaccine has been infected, serves as more anecdotal evidence that the vaccine is working, Tao Lina, a Shanghai-based vaccine expert told the Global Times.
The data signals Sinopharm vaccine may be close to being released on the market, Tao predicted.
Liu said that since June, Sinopharm’s phase three clinic trial in dozens of countries and regions, including the UAE, Egypt, Bahrain, Peru and Morocco have more than 50,000 participants….
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
November 9, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 10,396,480)
Deaths ( 244,313)
Serious, Critical cases currently ( 18,622)
What’s Not the Matter With Georgia?
NYT - Paul Krugman - November 9
A Democratic win offers hope — but also a warning.
Right now, we all have Georgia on our minds. It’s probably going to end up called for Joe Biden; his lead is razor-thin, but most observers expect it to survive a recount. And the January runoff races in Georgia offer Democrats their last chance to take the Senate.
Beyond the immediate electoral implications, however, the fact that Democrats are now competitive in Georgia but not in Ohio, which appears to have become Trumpier than Texas, tells you a lot about where America is heading. In some ways these changes in the electoral map offer reason for hope; but they also suggest looming problems for U.S. democracy.
How did Georgia turn faintly blue? As The Atlantic’s Derek Thompson wrote, in a phrase I wish I’d come up with, the great divide in American politics is now over “density and diplomas”: highly urbanized states — especially those containing large metropolitan areas — with highly educated populations tend to be Democratic.
Why this particular partisan association? Think about the longer-term political strategy of the modern G.O.P. Republican economic policy is relentlessly plutocratic: tax cuts for the rich, benefit cuts for everyone else. The party has, however, sought to win over voters who aren’t rich by taking advantage of intolerance — racial hostility, of course, but also opposition to social change in general.
But both living in large, diverse metropolitan areas and being highly educated seem to make voters less receptive to this strategy. Indeed, many big-city and highly educated voters seem repelled by G.O.P. illiberalism on social issues — which is why so many affluent Americans on the coasts back Democrats even though Republicans might reduce their taxes.
In practice, density and diplomas tend to go together — an association that has grown stronger over the past few decades. Modern economic growth has been led by knowledge-based industries; these industries tend to concentrate in large metropolitan areas that have highly educated work forces; and the growth of these metropolitan areas brings in even more highly educated workers.
Hence the transformation of Georgia. The state is home to greater Atlanta, one of the nation’s most dynamic metropolises, which now accounts for 57 percent of Georgia’s population. Atlanta has drawn in a growing number of college-educated workers, so that at this point the percentage of working-age adults with bachelor’s degrees is higher in Georgia than in Wisconsin or Michigan. So at some level it shouldn’t be surprising that Georgia apparently joined the “blue wall” in securing the presidency for Biden.
But if there’s one thing I hope Democrats have learned these past dozen years, it is that they can’t simply count on changing demography and growing social liberalism to deliver election victories. Red-state Republicans have fought tooth and nail to hold power — not by moderating their policies, but through gerrymandering and vote suppression. And Democrats need to do what they can to fight back.
Which is why Georgia’s blue shift is in one way a reason for hope. ...
Why, after all, did Biden win Georgia even as he was losing North Carolina, another relatively well-educated state with growing knowledge industries? The answer, in two words: Stacey Abrams.
Two years ago Abrams narrowly lost her bid to become Georgia’s governor, largely thanks to ruthless efforts to suppress the Black vote by Brian Kemp, the secretary of state — who also happened to be her opponent. She could, with considerable justification, have tried to make the case that the election was stolen.
But what she did instead was much more effective: She led a hugely impressive effort to get eligible Georgia citizens registered and to the polls. In so doing, she achieved a victory that would probably have delivered the White House to Biden even if he hadn’t carried Pennsylvania. Her efforts are a reason to think Democrats still have a chance at getting those two Senate seats. And partisan politics aside, we should celebrate evidence that hard work can sometimes overcome voter suppression.
That’s the good news. The bad news is that the same forces that made it possible to turn Georgia blue are also exacerbating the underlying flaws in American democracy.
For the Senate hugely overrepresents voters in states with small populations — which mainly means states that are relatively rural and don’t contain big metropolitan areas. The Electoral College has a similar though smaller slant.
And the growing divide between rural and metropolitan voters means that outcomes like 2016, when Donald Trump won office despite losing the popular vote by a substantial margin, are increasingly likely.
Indeed, Joe Biden will become president only after winning the popular vote by a near-landslide; once all the votes are counted, he’ll probably be ahead by around five percentage points. And the evidence keeps mounting that the party that benefits from this skewed system is fundamentally opposed to democracy.
So the news from Georgia is encouraging in itself, but is also a warning that American democracy remains very much at risk.
‘If it succeeded, it would be a coup’
Legal experts weigh in on Trump team’s election challenges
via @BostonGlobe - November 10
Efforts by President Trump and his allies to challenge Democrat Joe Biden’s election victory, while disruptive in the short term, likely won’t succeed in keeping the polarizing Republican in the White House past January, legal and political scholars said Tuesday.
“If it succeeded, it would be a coup,” said Charles Fried, a Harvard Law professor and former US solicitor general in the Reagan administration. “There’s no indication it will succeed, or that anybody expects it to succeed.”
Fried’s comments came one day after US Attorney General William Barr authorized federal prosecutors to probe any “substantial” allegations of voter irregularities and election fraud, though no widespread evidence of either has been reported in the 2020 election.
On Tuesday, the Trump campaign said that it would seek a recount in Georgia, citing “widespread allegations of voter irregularities, issues with voting machines, and poll watcher access” in making its demands.
In fact, election officials from both political parties have publicly stated that voting went well and international observers also confirmed that there were no serious irregularities. That includes Georgia’s Republican Lt. Governor, who told CNN on Monday that he had not been notified of any credible reports of systemic voter fraud in the state. Biden leads by a razor-thin margin in Georgia but has not been declared the winner in that state.
On Tuesday, Fried called Barr’s directive an “empty gesture” and said “it is meant, all of these gestures ... to somehow assuage Trump’s rage and frustration.”
Fried acknowledged there’s “a possible, outside grim chance that some of these many, many Trump judges, over 200 that he appointed, will somewhere, somehow find some basis for an injunction or a lawsuit which might throw a monkey wrench into the works. That’s a very remote possibility.”
Regarding Barr’s directive, Fried said “it’s just saying if there’s something serious going on, by all means investigate it. There has been no evidence whatsoever offered.”
The General Services Administration on Monday held off on formally beginning the transition, preventing Biden’s teams from gaining access to federal agencies. An agency spokesperson said late Monday that an “ascertainment” on the winner of the election had not yet been made.
“By all appearances, yes it looks like Trump is trying to reverse the outcome of elections that by all accounts had equal monitoring of ballot counting by Republicans and Democrats, and in states where the Chief Election Officer is a Republican (GA, NV),” said Wendy Schiller, chair of Brown University’s political science department, in an e-mail message. “As unrealistic as these efforts are, they are a direct attack on the fundamental system of elections.” ...
Schiller said two factors are at play in Trump’s refusal to concede the race: politics and governance.
“One is politics and right now for the GOP it is all about keeping Trump supporters engaged through the Georgia Senate runoff elections on January 5th,” Schiller wrote. In Georgia, both Republican senators will face runoff elections just after the new year. Sen. Kelly Loeffler will face Rev. Raphael Warnock while Sen. David Purdue will take on Jon Ossoff. The outcome will determine whether Republicans maintain control of the senate. “Everything Mitch McConnell is doing and saying is about keeping the Trump voters enraged enough to get out in full force for those Senate seats.”
Republicans, Schiller wrote, “cannot win those two seats without Trump’s core base, and they need high turnout.”
She gave Trump long odds of succeeding in court, where his campaign is challenging the results in several states Biden won.
“It remains an extraordinary uphill climb for Trump to overturn the electoral results in four states that Biden has won,” Schiller wrote, adding that in Pennsylvania alone “the vote deficit exceeds 45,000 and no one credibly believes fraud could have produced that kind of margin especially in two distinct parts of the state (Philly and Pittsburgh).”
Biden’s Pennsylvania victory is what ultimately put him over the 270-vote threshold needed to win in the Electoral College.
Paul M. Collins Jr., a professor of legal studies and political science at UMass-Amherst, also offered a dim assessment of the lawsuits, telling the Globe they’re being pushed for “purely political” reasons.
“They see them as a way of delegitimizing the Biden administration and the electoral process itself,” Collins wrote. “I think they believe this will help maintain their base of support, whether for a potential 2024 presidential run or to help the president succeed in whatever other plans he has after January of 2021.”
Regarding the GSA actions Monday, Schiller said the agency’s refusal to acknowledge Biden as president-elect will “complicate the transition in the short term and is likely illegal in terms of withholding funds.”
But the landscape should settle once the votes are certified, she added. In Georgia, results must be certified by Nov. 20, and only then can the Trump campaign request a recount. In Pennsylvania certification happens by Nov. 23. Presidential electors then meet on Dec. 14 in each state to cast votes for president.
At that point, Schiller wrote, “it will be much harder for [the GSA administrator] to hold this position. In the meantime, you have a former 2 term VP who knows how to run the country and does not need as much of the typical transition help that other new presidents - without his prior experience - have required.” ...
In the meantime, the Trump-fueled chaos is distressing, said Fried, of Harvard.
“It’s horrible past belief,” Fried said. “It’s a nightmare.”
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