Friday, June 6, 2008

Prediction Markets: October Surprise

I remember how John Poindexter wanted to use prediction markets to learn about terrorism. Maybe he was on to something. Some of the run-up in oil prices seems to relate to the dangers of a conflict in Iraq. Would believers in rational expectation accept that Bush may be readying an October Surprise?

2 comments:

rosserjb@jmu.edu said...

Danger in Iraq? Did you not mean to say Iran? Part of yesterday's oil price spike has been reported to be due to some Israeli politician threatening to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. He may have been encouraged by Obama's very pro-Israel and anti-Iran speech before AIPAC as well.

Barkley

Michael Perelman said...

Stupid (careless) of me. Of Course, Iran