"The Optimal Jury Size When Jury Deliberation Follows a Random Walk"
Public Choice, Vol. 134, No. 3-4, 2008
Robert Day School of Economics and Finance Research Paper No. 2008-3
ERIC HELLAND, Claremont McKenna College - Robert Day School of Economics and Finance, RAND
YARON RAVIV, Claremont McKenna College - Robert Day School of Economics and Finance
The existing literature does not agree on the optimal jury size. We demonstrate that the probability of type I and type II errors is not sensitive to the number of jurors under the following three conditions: jurors received independent signals about a defendant's guilt during the evidence stage of the trial; the jurors truthfully reveal their signal before deliberations in the first ballot via their vote; and the jury deliberation can be modeled as a random walk. Since the opportunity cost of jury service is positive, this implies the optimal number of jurors is one.
And why do we need coauthors?