Last July 12 I posted here on both old and recent work of mine on modeling how most bubbles experience "period of financial distress" after a peak during which they gradually decline for awhile before crashing. I noted the declines in deriviatives markets, identifying August 2007 as the peak. I warned of the danger of a crash, while holding back from outright forecasting one or when it might occur. Well, it occurred in mid-September with the general global meltdown after the failure of Lehmann Brothers, and was followed by a pretty steep crash of stock markets around the world.
I also note that housing continues to follow my forecast, that it is in a gradual decline since its peak in mid-2006, with no sign of a full-scale crash, although we are pretty clearly still well above a bottom. The other pattern for bubbles, of a crash immediately following a peak still looks like what happened to oil this past summer. Again, for the record, in the fourth edition of his Manias, Panics, and Crashes, of the 47 historical bubbles identified by Charles Kindleberger in his Appendix B, 37 of them followed the "period of financial distress" pattern, including all the really big ones, with the remainder about evenly split between the other two patterns.